Football Future-see 2014: Week Twelve

Record
Week 1	8-2
Week 2	5-0
Week 3	2-3
Week 4	4-1
Week 5	2-3
Week 6	2-8
Week 7	4-1
Week 8	3-2
Week 9	2-3
Week 10	2-3
Week 11	4-6
Week 12	3-2
Total	41-34	0.547

I don’t know what it is about ten-game slates, but outside of a week one triumph, the two ten-game slates I’ve put myself up against have led to a cumulative 6-14 record. So I’m going back to a five-game schedule, if only for my own sanity. This week gives us a trio of SEC conference games, an ACC match-up in Atlanta, and a Big Ten game in Wisconsin.

By the way, do you want to know how important the selection committee believe strength of schedule to be? Ask Marshall. The Thundering Herd is undefeated, the only non-Power Five conference team to remain undefeated. So where are they ranked in the College Football Playoff Selection Committee's Top 25? Somewhere below 26th. They're not even in the poll. Ranked ahead of them by the committee are LSU (7-3), Texas A&M (7-3), and Utah (6-3).

The Herd is averaging nearly 48 points a game, giving up less than 17 per game, and is 9-0. The only problem is their best victory is either Middle Tennessee or Akron. The Herd will probably reach one of the top six bowls, seeing how East Carolina is somewhat imploding and the rules state that a non-Power Five team must get in. But Marshall is proving that strength of schedule is really important.

The Games:

19 Clemson at 22 Georgia Tech (Saturday, Noon, ESPN)

Georgia Tech is playing at a far better clip than anyone, myself included, was expecting of them this season. At the start of the season I predicted Tech to lose to Virginia Tech (won 27-24), Miami (won 28-17), North Carolina (lost 48-43), Pittsburgh (won 56-28), Clemson (yet to play), and Georgia (yet to play). The Jackets are averaging just under 39 points per game while giving up just under 26 per game. Clemson rolls into Atlanta this week with one fewer win that Tech, but a better conference mark. The Tigers are averaging 32.4 points per game and giving up only 18.4 points per game. They took the defending champion FSU Seminoles to overtime and they beat North Carolina 50-35. What does that mean? Who knows? These teams can surprise you on any given Saturday. Right now, I’m taking Clemson to win a very close game, perhaps even requiring overtime again. Tigers win.

Final Score: Clemson 27, Georgia Tech 24
INCORRECT: Georgia Tech won 28-6

16 Nebraska at 20 Wisconsin (Saturday, 3:30pm, ABC)

Nebraska runs the ball for nearly 281 yards every time they take the field, leading to them controlling the clock. Wisconsin, meanwhile, averages almost 50 more yards per game rushing, though the Huskers are outscoring them 40.4 to 36.8. The Badgers, though, have the third best scoring defense in the nation, allowing only 14.3 points per game. In fact, in their last three conference games, the Badgers have cumulatively outscored Maryland/Rutgers/Purdue 123-23. This game will go a long way in determining who faces Ohio State for the Big Ten championship. If both teams manage to get their running games going, it could be low scoring, as they eat up the clock. The last time they played each other, Wisconsin ran away with the game, winning 70-31. I think Nebraska will have studied that number long and hard this week, and will come out fired up. Huskers win.

Final Score: Nebraska 35, Wisconsin 24
INCORRECT: Wisconsin won 59-24

1 Mississippi State at 5 Alabama (Saturday, 3:30pm, CBS)

Somebody has to claw their way out of the unholy scrum that is the SEC West and claim a December 6 date in Atlanta in the SEC Championship Game. I think this game will go a long way toward determining that team. Alabama is playing some great football at just the right time. They recently shut out the Aggies of TAMU 59-0 and they just escaped Death Valley (Louisiana) with a hard-fought overtime win over LSU. Mississippi State, meanwhile, just dominated UT-Martin, and before that barely got by conference-winless Arkansas. This is still the same Mississippi State team that gave up 34 points to UAB. The Crimson Tide is giving up just over 10 points per game since their loss to Ole Miss. Over the same stretch, they’re averaging nearly 32 points per game. I think this will be a close game, with neither team able to establish dominance until the clock hits 00:00. By that time, though, I expect the Tide to have done just a little more than Mississippi State. Bama wins.

Final Score: Alabama 27, Mississippi State 21
CORRECT: Alabama won 25-10

9 Auburn at 15 Georgia (Saturday, 7:15pm, ESPN)

Georgia went to Kentucky in a foul mode and the Wildcats paid a hefty price, falling 63-31. With less than two minutes to go, Georgia was still passing and running. I wondered if Georgia was going for 70 points, a feat they’ve not attained since September 17, 1994 against Northeast Louisiana. But, we are talking about Mark Richt…and I’m actually surprised he let his team score over 60. Auburn, meanwhile, is coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Aggies. Trust me, no one in Athens has forgotten the miracle that took place in Jordan-Hare last year that began Auburn’s magical run to the SEC championship. This isn’t just a rivalry, this is the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. This is the rivalry that has been played for over 110 years and the teams are separated by only 100 points or so. The road team tends to play well. Rankings mean nothing. UGA fans have started calling for a blackout, but Mark Richt has downplayed the rumors. It’s possible, but don’t hold your breath. That said, I’m looking for a close, hard-fought game, with Georgia winning late.

Final Score: Georgia 31, Auburn 26
CORRECT: Georgia won 34-7

17 LSU at Arkansas (Saturday, 8:00pm, ESPN2)

Arkansas will eventually knock off an SEC opponent. It is going to happen. They took the Aggies to overtime before falling 35-28. Alabama beat the Hogs 14-13 in regulation in a game in which Arkansas missed an extra point. Georgia, unfortunately for Arkansas, broke the trend and laid 38 on the Hogs before halftime en route to a 45-32 victory. Mississippi State, the #1 team in the nation, defeated Arkansas 17-10 in Starkville. The win is coming for Arkansas. Eventually someone is going to trip up. And I think that happens this week. LSU rolls into northwest Arkansas after a deflating overtime loss to Alabama. The Tigers are downtrodden and the Hogs have to be happy about how well they’ve played lately. It’s the perfect storm for the Razorbacks. QB Brandon Allen makes enough plays and the bruising running game of Arkansas carries the Hogs to a tight win over divisional foe LSU. Woo Pig Sooie (whatever that means).

Final Score: Arkansas 27, LSU 24
CORRECT: Arkansas won 17-0

The Right Wing Top Ten

The Associated Press Poll and the Amway Coaches Poll both feature a Preseason version. I even posted a “Preseason Top Ten,” or something to that effect, a while back. I never intended to use that poll as a basis for the Right Wing Top Ten, though.

15. Marshall Thundering Herd (last week: NR)

14. UCLA Bruins (last week: NR)

13. Kansas State (last week: 8)

12. Georgia Bulldogs (last week: NR)

11. Ole Miss Rebels (last week: NR)

10. Nebraska Cornhuskers (last week: 13)

Why: Nebraska’s running backs are great, and that running game is paying big dividends.

9. Auburn Tigers (last week: 6)

Why: A tight loss to the Aggies sent Auburn into a tailspin, which pretty much blew up the SEC West.

8. Ohio State Buckeyes (last week: 12)

Why: No one thought Ohio State would beat Sparty the way they did, but they claimed control of the Big Ten race.

7. Arizona State Sun Devils (last week: 11)

Why: Arizona State demolished the once mighty Fighting Irish of Notre Dame.

6. Baylor Bears (last week: 10)

Why: Baylor went to Norman and stomped Oklahoma.

5. TCU Horned Frogs (last week: 7)

Why: TCU overcame Kansas State and looks like the front-runner for the Big XII.

4. Oregon Ducks (last week: 4)

Why: Oregon went to Utah and beat down the Utes to claim the PAC-12 North.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide (last week: 3)

Why: Alabama was tested by LSU, but I think they’ve come out stronger on the other side. I actually think this is one of the most dangerous teams in the nation.

2. Florida State Seminoles (last week: 2)

Why: The Noles got by the last real threat they’ll face before the playoff.

1. Mississippi State Bulldogs (last week: 1)

Why: Mississippi State olds the top spot, even though an Arkansas team on the rise took them to the brink.

Bowl Projections

It’s the time of year again. Time to unveil some bowl projections. Don’t worry, these are sure to be wrong.

Sugar Bowl (playoff semifinal): Florida State vs Oregon

Rose Bowl (playoff semifinal): Alabama vs TCU

I’ve changed up the order for the playoff, because I actually think the committee will avoid putting in two teams from one conference.

Cotton Bowl (group of five): Mississippi State vs Baylor

Orange Bowl (group of five): Clemson vs Notre Dame

Peach Bowl (group of five): Duke vs Marshall

Fiesta Bowl (group of five): Michigan State vs Arizona State

Citrus Bowl (ACC/B1G vs SEC): Nebraska vs Ole Miss

Outback Bowl (B1G vs SEC): Ohio State vs Georgia