Football Future-see 2015: Week Five

Last week was one of those weeks that did not go well for me on the picks, but went fantastically for college football as a whole. Some close, awe-inspiring games took place, like TAMU and Arkansas going to overtime. Some truly mind-boggling events took place, like Tennessee being up 27-14 on Florida one minute, then suddenly losing 28-27. Some of the teams that should have won did so, like Georgia winning by 42 over Southern. Some of the teams that weren’t necessarily expected to win did so, like Utah winning by 42 over Oregon. Will the chaos continue, or will order be restored? Given the slate this week, I’m looking for more chaos. We’ve got Alabama at Georgia, Ole Miss at Florida, and Mississippi State at Texas A&M, along with a conference game from the Big XII and a pseudo-conference game from the ACC.

RECORD

Week One	9-1
Week Two	4-1
Week Three	3-2
Week Four	2-3
Week Five	2-3
Week Six
Week Seven
OVERALL	20-10	.667

The Games:

23 West Virginia at 15 Oklahoma (Saturday, Noon, FoxSports1)

Oklahoma has been solid this year, earning a come-from-behind victory at Tennessee, and crushing wins over Tulsa and Akron. The problem for the Sooners this week is that their next game is with Texas. Now, Texas ain’t great, but it is a rivalry game, and stats just don’t matter in rivalry games. West Virginia has quietly crept into the Top 25 by beating Georgia Southern 44-0, Liberty 41-17, and Maryland 45-6. But even with those impressive wins over less-talented teams, the Mountaineers have yet to face a test like OU signal caller Baker Mayfield. Sooners win.

Final Score: Oklahoma 31, West Virginia 24
CORRECT: Oklahoma won 44-24

13 Alabama at 8 Georgia (Saturday, 3:30pm, CBS)

The SEC Network’s Saturday countdown special will be in Athens this week for what will be the biggest game of the week (never mind that game in Clemson). Given the way that Georgia has been playing this season (all they do is win, yet the dropped a spot to 8th in the AP poll while remaining 6th in the coaches poll), and the fact that Alabama gave up more than 40 to Ole Miss, seems to be setting the stage for Alabama to finally enter a game as an underdog after 72 games. Georgia’s QB, Greyson Lambert, is absolutely on fire, completing 33 of 35 over the last two games. Couple that precision with a running game led by Nick Chubb and Sony Michel and Georgia’s offense is staggeringly dangerous. Alabama’s run defense is more than solid, but they were not effective against the Rebels of Ole Miss. The game is in Athens, giving the Dawgs home field advantage. Georgia’s offense is clicking on all cylinders. All of that adds up to a solid Georgia win.

Final Score: Georgia 28, Alabama 23
INCORRECT: Alabama won 38-10

3 Ole Miss at 25 Florida (Saturday, 7:00pm, ESPN)

The Gators are ranked. That’s right, they are 4-0 and they’re ranked. Ole Miss is a high-powered offense that recently knocked off Alabama. Now they travel to the Swamp. Florida is coming off a huge win over Tennessee in which the Gators came from a 27-14 deficit to win 28-27. Tennessee is reeling and the Gators are rising. But Ole Miss is better than any team the Gators have faced so far. QB Chad Kelly leads an offense that is averaging 55 points per game. Florida’s defense is good, probably the best facet of their team, but it’s not good enough to stop Ole Miss. Rebels win.

Final Score: Ole Miss 31, Florida 20
INCORRECT: Florida won 38-10

21 Mississippi State at 14 TAMU (Saturday, 7:30pm, SEC Network)

The Aggies struggled for a time against Arkansas before finally putting the Razorbacks away in overtime. Mississippi State, meanwhile, continued Auburn’s freefall from preseason favorite into conference obscurity. TAMU’s QB, Kyle Allen, has been the catalyst for the offense all year. That’s not to diminish the efforts of Dak Prescott for MSU. Prescott is keeping the Bulldogs in the conversation, and has lifted them back into the top 25. If this game were in Starkville I would probably have the Bulldogs winning. But given that the game is in College Station, I’m leaning toward the Aggies.

Final Score: TAMU 34, Mississippi State 28
CORRECT: TAMU won 30-17

6 Notre Dame at 12 Clemson (Saturday, 8:00pm, ABC)

ESPN’s College GameDay will be in Clemson as the Irish come to town to face the 12th ranked Tigers. Clemson looks like the best team in the ACC, given the faltering state of Georgia Tech and the not-remotely-fear-inducing Florida State. That said, Notre Dame appears to have some sort of magic this year. They lose player after player to injury, and still find ways to win. Just ask Georgia Tech how that worked out. Clemson, though, has not yet reached their full potential this year. QB Deshaun Watson was thought to be a preseason Heisman contender, but he hasn’t played to that level yet. Do so this Saturday, and the accolades may start to pile up. I just don’t think they will. Notre Dame is making a playoff run and a narrow road win over a staunch Clemson team will further their case. Irish win.

Final Score: Notre Dame 24, Clemson 20
INCORRECT: Clemson won 24-22

Random Football Thoughts (Mostly on College Football)

The season is in full swing for the college game, as well as the NFL. There has been no shortage of surprise or chaos either. Let's examine the happenings of this season.

How I Never Bought the Hype on Auburn
"For some reason, everyone seems to be buying the hype on Auburn this year. I'm not...at least, not yet." -July 1, 2015

"I’m just not buying the hype yet. Auburn is being touted as a title contender. Auburn, who after October 4 last year lost to every ranked team they played. Don’t get me wrong, I think Auburn will beat Louisville…but I’m just not buying Auburn as a championship contender yet." -August 27, 2015

I wrote those two statements nearly two months apart. I was not buying Auburn. Everyone with a voice in the national college football scene was saying Auburn was going to contend for the SEC championship and a subsequent playoff spot. Auburn was voted by the SEC media writers to win the conference, even though, thanks to the quirky voting rules, Alabama was voted in as the winner of the SEC West. Auburn's QB, Jeremy Johnson, was going to battle for the Heisman.

That was then. Now, on September 28, Auburn is 0-2 in the SEC, suffering a crushing loss to LSU and a staggeringly offensively inept loss at home to Mississippi State. The Tigers defeated Louisville to start the season, but an overtime victory, in Jordan-Hare, over FCS opponent Jacksonville State, shook the foundation of the Auburn faithful.

Jeremy Johnson has been nothing close to what was advertised. Gus Malzahn's offense has looked inept and, in some cases, has simply not shown up. LSU crushed Auburn 45-21, showing no mercy in throttling the preseason SEC favorites. Mississippi State then came into Jordan-Hare and completely kept Auburn out of the end zone, even after Auburn had benched Jeremy Johnson in favor of back-up QB Sean White.

And for the record, I called it. I told you I wasn't buying Auburn. That call looks better and better each week.

Goooooo Dawgs! Sic 'em! Woof woof woof woof!
The Dawgs are just awesome! Nick Chubb has been a force to be reckoned with, and he has enough firepower around him that he should stay healthy and fresh all season. QB Greyson Lambert has been the model of near-perfection, completing 33 of his last 35 passes. The Dawgs have a huge test this weekend as Alabama comes to town, but Georgia is projected to be the favorite in every game it plays for the remainder of 2015.

Is Florida chomping off more than they can chew?
The Gators are a difficult team to get a read on. They are 4-0, but they're winning close and winning ugly. They had to come back from two touchdowns behind to beat Tennessee. Three of Florida's next four games are home for Ole Miss, at LSU, and at Jacksonville for the World's Largest Outdoor Non-Alchoholic Fun For the Whole Family Party (Georgia). If they can win one of those three they'll be alright.

Is Ole Miss Really That Good?
The Rebels of Ole Miss went into Tuscaloosa and hung 43 on Alabama. But then they struggled against Vanderbilt. Granted, Vandy is better than most people give them credit for, especially on defense (they held Georgia to 31 points; no one else has kept Georgia under 48). Ole Miss has a trip to Florida this week. That will sort out a lot of the confusion around both teams.

Way Too Early Playoff Prediction
#1 Michigan State vs #4 Notre Dame
#2 Georgia vs #3 Baylor

Meanwhile, in the NFL...
...How 'Bout Those Falcons?
The Atlanta Falcons, yes, those Atlanta Falcons, are 3-0 on the year. This is the same team that didn't win it's third game last season until week ten. They did it in week three this year, obviously. Matt Ryan is still Matt Ice, although he has some problems that a good QB coach should've already sorted through. Ryan has a tendency to throw a lot of televangelist passes, meaning he has the ability to make 70,000 people stand to their feet and cry out "Oh, God!"

The Falcons running game is currently a tad hampered by Tevin Coleman being hurt, but Devonta Freeman is carrying the load well. The WR corps is still beast, though. Julio Jones has 34 catches and nearly 400 yards through just three games. Obviously, I don't expect the undefeated run to last, but these Falcons are capable of winning ten or more games this year, and they should make the playoffs. 

Football Future-see 2015: Week Four

16-4 after three weeks isn’t too shabby, but what happened to Georgia Tech and Alabama last week? Tech simply could not seem to get rolling against Notre Dame. Alabama was caught off guard by a high-octane offense from Ole Miss. Maybe the Rebels are for real. Maybe Notre Dame can overcome the injuries plaguing them this year. But neither of them are on the list this week. We’ve got the obligatory Georgia pick, BYU traveling to the Big House, and three PAC-12 conference games.

RECORD

Week One	9-1
Week Two	4-1
Week Three	3-2
Week Four	2-3
Week Five
Week Six
Week Seven
OVERALL	18-7	.720

The Games:

22 BYU at Michigan (Saturday, Noon, Big Ten Network)

Who is BYU? They’re apparently a team that can hit it big in crunch time…or are they? They beat Nebraska with an amazing Hail Mary. They beat Boise State with a strong comeback. Then they lost to UCLA by one point. Now they go to Michigan, where the Wolverines have lost to Utah before scoring solid wins over Oregon State and UNLV. This game comes down to which Michigan team shows up. I think BYU is better than Michigan, and so I think they’ll pull out a close win in the Big House. Cougars over Wolverines.

Final Score: BYU 24, Michigan 20
INCORRECT: Michigan won 31-0

Southern at 7 Georgia (Saturday, Noon, SEC Network)

The Dawgs dropped 52 points on Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks last week, adding fuel to the fire of his retirement rumors. Georgia QB Greyson Lambert set the NCAA FBS passing efficiency, completing 24 of 25 passes for 330 yards. That was against an SEC defense. It’s scary to think what Southern may be in store for this week. The only time Southern has faced an FBS team this year, they gave up 62 to Louisiana Tech. Georgia is better than LaTech, but Mark Richt is such a nice guy that he’ll take the foot off the gas once Georgia is up by three touchdowns. I’m thinking Georgia could score 70 if they wanted to (something they’ve not done since beating Northeast Louisiana 70-6 in 1994), but they’ll stop at just over 60. Dawgs win.

Final Score: Georgia 63, Southern 10
CORRECT: Georgia won 48-6

9 UCLA at 16 Arizona (Saturday, 8:00pm, ABC)

This game will deliver the frontrunner of the PAC-12 South. UCLA is still ranked in the top ten, but their QB, Jeff Rosen, didn’t look like the top-tier QB he’s been touted as. Arizona, meanwhile, is coming off a staggeringly good win over Northern Arizona. When the Bruins roll into Tucson, I think the Wildcats will be ready, and they’ll stop the roll UCLA is on. Wildcats win, but close.

Final Score: Arizona 27, UCLA 24
INCORRECT: UCLA won 56-30

18 Utah at 13 Oregon (Saturday, 8:30pm, Fox)

Oregon just hung more than 60 points on Georgia State. Okay, that’s not a really big accomplishment. The Ducks sit at 13 because of their close loss to Michigan State. Utah, on the other hand, defeated Michigan to start the season, then skated by Utah State before hammering Fresno State (but who hasn’t, right, Ole Miss?). The Utes will be looking for a big upset. Oregon will be looking to fully right the ship. You can’t give up over 400 yards of offense to Georgia State and expect to contend for a playoff spot. Oregon will win, but Utah will make it a fight.

Final Score: Oregon 32, Utah 28
INCORRECT: Utah won 62-20

19 USC at Arizona State (Saturday, 10:30pm, ESPN)

USC suffered a heartbreaking loss to Stanford that sent the Trojans tumbling in the rankings. They now have quite a hill to climb to regain supremacy in the PAC-12. The winner of UCLA-Arizona will be the frontrunner. Arizona State, who was a trendy pick at the start of the season, is beginning to look like a pretender after all. I’m thinking that USC goes to ASU with a lot of anger and frustration and they take it out on the Sun Devils. Trojans win going away.

Final Score: USC 38, Arizona State 17
CORRECT: USC won 42-14

Football Future-see 2015: Week Three

After two weeks I’m sitting at 13-2, which I like. The SEC didn’t do so well last week, losing three teams from the Top 25, but seeing some gains from other teams. Georgia and Ole Miss both gained ground. Alabama gained a #1 vote. Elsewhere in the conference, Auburn was exposed, Arkansas lost to a MAC team, and no one seemed to cover against the spread, except Ole Miss. This week we’ve got three SEC conference games (two of which are Top 25 match-ups) and two ACC (sort-of) conference games.

RECORD

Week One	9-1
Week Two	4-1
Week Three	3-2
Week Four
Week Five
Week Six
Week Seven
OVERALL	16-4	.800

The Games:

11 Clemson at Louisville (Thursday, 7:30pm, ESPN)

Clemson has been impressive, although QB Deshaun Watson hasn’t exactly put together the numbers that most experts thought he would. Louisville, on the other hand, is now 0-2 after losses to Auburn and Houston. This might be Clemson’s breakout game. If Louisville doesn’t right the ship soon then this is in danger of being a lost season, in just week three. I like Clemson in this game, and I like Clemson to absolutely roll the Cardinals. Tigers win.

Final Score: Clemson 38, Louisville 17
CORRECT: Clemson won 20-17

14 Georgia Tech at 8 Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30pm, NBC)

This game had more luster before last Saturday. Notre Dame has lost their starting QB, which is a definite disadvantage for them. Georgia Tech may very well be the best team in the ACC. They are averaging over 65 points per game (granted, against Alcorn State and Tulane). Notre Dame is coming off a hard-fought victory over Virginia. I think the Irish keep it close for a while, but the Yellow Jackets will pull away in the second half and win by more than two touchdowns.

Final Score: Georgia Tech 37, Notre Dame 21
INCORRECT: Notre Dame 30-22

18 Auburn at 13 LSU (Saturday, 3:30pm, CBS)

When the season began I said I was not as high on Auburn as everyone else seemed to be. I wasn’t buying the hype. Last week proved why. Auburn allowed FCS-foe Jacksonville State to come into Jordan-Hare and nearly escape with a win. Jacksonville State became the first FCS team to take an FBS team to overtime. In fact, were it not for a late-game TD by Auburn, the Tigers would’ve lost. Now Auburn has to travel to LSU and face a Tigers team coming off a big win over Mississippi State. I just don’t see them doing it. LSU keeps up their roll.

Final Score: LSU 24, Auburn 18
CORRECT: LSU won 45-21

South Carolina at 7 Georgia (Saturday, 6:00pm, ESPN)

Georgia smoked Louisiana-Monroe in week one then came out flat against Vanderbilt last week, taking some time to reach a 31-14 victory. Now they face South Carolina and the dark lord of the Sith, Darth Visor, er, Steve Spurrier. For whatever reason, Spurrier always seems to do well against Georgia. That said, the Gamecocks QB situation is a shambles. Georgia has greater depth across the board than South Carolina. I’m looking for a Dawgs win, and possibly one featuring Georgia pulling further and further away in the second half.

Final Score: Georgia 31, South Carolina 17
CORRECT: Georgia won 52-20

15 Ole Miss at 2 Alabama (Saturday, 9:15pm, ESPN)

This game is, without a doubt, the hardest prediction to make this week. Ole Miss is scoring more points per game than their own basketball team. Alabama is still Alabama. Will Ole Miss run into that buzzsaw defense, or will they simply pass over it and keep scoring at will? Will Alabama’s offense finally click on all cylinders and be who we all thought they could be? I really want to go with Ole Miss here, but a nagging little voice says Alabama will take this one, especially in Tuscaloosa. Tide wins a close one.

Final Score: Alabama 24, Ole Miss 21
INCORRECT: Ole Miss won 43-37

Football Future-see 2015: Week Two

Week One is in the books and I went 9-1 to start things off. An upset of Stanford by Northwestern kept me from a perfect record. This week we go back to the standard five games, with two SEC conference match-ups, an SEC-PAC12 non-conference game, and SEC-Big XII match-up, and a Mountain West vs Independent match-up. Should be fun.

RECORD

Week One	9-1
Week Two	4-1
Week Three
Week Four
Week Five
Week Six
Week Seven
OVERALL	13-2	.867

The Games:

10 Georgia at Vanderbilt (Saturday, 3:30pm, CBS)

Georgia was rolling on Louisiana-Monroe when Mother Nature decided to send some lightning their way, bringing the game to an early end with 10 minutes remaining in the fourth. Vanderbilt lost a heart-breaker to Western-Kentucky. This is a divisional game that normally isn’t close. Every once in a while Vandy will sneak up and steal one from Georgia. I don’t see that happening this time. Georgia simply has far too much firepower for the Commodores. RB Nick Chubb should get a bigger workout than last weekend, and the offense should roll. Georgia QB Grayson Lambert was impressive in the season opener, playing very smart football. Georgia opens conference play with a big win over Vanderbilt.

Final Score: Georgia 51, Vanderbilt 14
CORRECT: Georgia won 31-14

19 Oklahoma at 23 Tennessee (Saturday, 6:00pm, ESPN)

Oklahoma is a popular playoff darkhorse candidate. Tennessee is a team on the rise, with aspirations of contending in the SEC East this year. The Vols rolled over Bowling Green while the Sooners had an easy time against Akron. Both teams got tuned up for this rematch of last season, when Oklahoma won 34-10 in Norman. Tennessee now plays host to the Sooners. The Vols have gotten progressively better, and it should show in this game. I like Tennessee to win a close game over Oklahoma. Rocky Top!

Final Score: Tennessee 24, Oklahoma 21
INCORRECT: Oklahoma won 31-24 in 2OT

7 Oregon at 5 Michigan State (Saturday, 8:00pm, ABC)

This was the biggest non-conference match-up, prior to the bowl games, last year, and it turned into a bit of a laugher after halftime as Oregon ran away. Now, though, Oregon is coming back to earth. Their offense is as potent as ever, as demonstrated by them scoring 61 on Eastern Washington last week. However, they gave up 42, which means their defense needs some work. Michigan State defeated Directional Michigan West 37-24 last week. I’m thinking this will be a fantastic offensive game, which means those of us who value defense will be shaking our heads in shame. Michigan State lost at Oregon last year. This year, Oregon loses at Michigan State. Sparty wins.

Final Score: Michigan State 45, Oregon 38
CORRECT: Michigan State won 31-28

14 LSU at 25 Mississippi State (Saturday, 9:15pm, ESPN)

LSU’s season has yet to truly start. Their tune-up game against McNeese State last week was canceled due to inclement weather. Mississippi State still has QB Dak Prescott. That said, Mississippi State lost a fair amount of talent. LSU is the better team, but many times in the SEC that means nothing. Still, I think LSU is the more talented team. RB Leonard Fournette should lead the attack that hands LSU a solid road in to open conference play. Tigers win.

Final Score: LSU 26, Mississippi State 17
CORRECT: LSU won 21-19

20 Boise State at BYU (Saturday, 10:15pm, FoxSports1)

Nebraska suffered an upset at the hands of BYU last week. The Cougars nailed a 50+ yard Hail Mary for the game-winning touchdown. Boise State overcame Washington and their former head coach, Chris Petersen. The Broncos seem like a solid team, with a very good chance at making a run at the top tier of bowl games. But this game feels like a trap. BYU is coming off a huge win that hands them a ton of momentum. Boise State merely did what was expected. I think BYU pulls off an upset once again. Cougars win a very close game.

Final Score: BYU 30, Boise State 28
CORRECT: BYU won 35-24