Thursday, October 27, 2011

Football Future-see 2011: Week Nine

RECORD

Week One..........5-2

Week Two..........3-2

Week Three........5-0

Week Four..........4-1

Week Five..........4-1

Week Six...........5-0

Week Seven......5-0

Week Eight........3-2

Week Nine.........2-3

Overall...............36-11


Week Eight was not a good week, going 3-2 after back to back perfect weeks. Here's the slate for Week Nine. Rankings reflect current BCS standings.


11 Michigan State at 14 Nebraska______CORRECT

Michigan State just took down Wisconsin. This has let down game written all over it for Sparty.

FINAL SCORE: Nebraska 24, Michigan State 21


9 Oklahoma at 8 Kansas State_______INCORRECT

Oklahoma just lost to Texas Tech and K-State is flying high. I'm not sure that Oklahoma will drop two games in a row. This is my upset pick for the week.

FINAL SCORE: Kansas State 27, Oklahoma 24


22 Georgia vs. Florida (game played in Jacksonville)_______CORRECT

Both teams are coming off byes. Florida hopes ot have John Brantley under center once again, but even then, UGA is a more talented team. Then again, Georgia's been more talented in the past and still lost this game. Not this time, though.

FINAL SCORE: Georgia 28, Florida 21


5 Clemson at Georgia Tech_______INCORRECT

Clemson looks to own the ACC this year. Georgia Tech has lost back to back games. Might as well make it three in a row.

FINAL SCORE: Clemson 31, Georgia Tech 24


15 Wisconsin at Ohio State_______INCORRECT

Wisconsin is coming off a loss that, for all intents and purposes, ended their hopes at the BCS Title Game. This is not a good time for Ohio State to be coming up against the Badger buzzsaw.

FINAL SCORE: Wisconsin 28, Ohio State 20

Sunday, October 23, 2011

College Football Predictions Revisited

Here are the predictions from August.

College

PAC-12 North: Stanford
PAC-12 South: Arizona State
PAC-12 Champion: Stanford

ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech
ACC Atlantic: Florida State
ACC Champion: Florida State

Big East Champion: West Virginia

Big Ten Legends: Nebraska
Big Ten Leaders: Wisconsin
Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin

Big XII Champion: Oklahoma

MWC Champion: Boise State

SEC East: Georgia
SEC West: Alabama
SEC Champion: Alabama

BOWL PROJECTIONS:

National Championship Game: Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Notre Dame
Capital One Bowl: Georgia vs. Nebraska
Outback Bowl: Penn State vs. Florida
Cotton Bowl: Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State
Chick-fil-A Bowl: South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech

Here are the revised predictions, taking into account all that has happened so far...

College

PAC-12 North: Stanford
PAC-12 South: Arizona State
PAC-12 Champion: Stanford

ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech
ACC Atlantic: Clemson
ACC Champion: Clemson

Big East Champion: West Virginia

Big Ten Legends: Michigan State
Big Ten Leaders: Penn State
Big Ten Champion: Michigan State

Big XII Champion: Oklahoma State

MWC Champion: Boise State

SEC East: Georgia
SEC West: LSU
SEC Champion: LSU

BOWL PROJECTIONS:

National Championship Game: Stanford vs. LSU
Rose Bowl: Michigan State vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Nebraska
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. West Virginia
Capital One Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan
Outback Bowl: Penn State vs. South Carolina
Cotton Bowl: Arkansas vs. Kansas State
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Florida vs. Virginia Tech

I've now got Stanford in the title game against LSU. Oklahoma and Wisconsin are both completely out of the BCS bowl picture.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

How Does IndyCar Recover?

In the wake of the tragic death of Dan Wheldon at the season finale of the IndyCar season, Robert and I were talking about how IndyCar overcomes this accident. This is the first IndyCar fatality since 2006, and truthfully it seems like IndyCar has a driver death about every three or four years, on average.

If you look at Formula 1, you'll see that the last driver death was in 1994. Granted, it was a bad weekend for F1 at the San Marino Grand Prix. During Friday qualifying Rubens Barrichello crashed hard into the tire wall, injuring himself and missing the race. He very nearly died in the wreck. Then, a few minutes into the final qualifying session on Saturday, Austrian driver Roland Ratzenberger crashed hard into the wall and was injured so badly that he later died at the hospital. But the horror was not yet over. After a restart during the race, Ayrton Senna, one of the greatest drivers of all time, left the course in the Tamburello turn and slammed hard into the wall. Debris from the car struck his helmet and he too later died at the hospital.

It spawned calls for revisions to the Imola race circuit, and after safety reviews and upgrades, it also became the last time a Formula 1 driver died in a race. NASCAR has had deaths since, the most notable being Dale Earnhardt dying on the last turn of the last lap of the 2001 Daytona 500. IndyCar and Champ Car have had several deaths since then. Each racing series has upgraded safety measures after each death. NASCAR required Head and Neck Support (HANS) devices for each driver. The oval courses saw the installation of Steel And Foam Energy Reduction (SAFER) Barriers.

But when the time came for IndyCar to roll onto the course at Las Vegas, the drivers themselves began to raise concerns. The track was too smooth and it would lead to tight racing. The reason? Such a smooth course would not offer the challenge that would allow the good drivers to separate themselves from the inexperienced drivers, leading to pack racing that is not common in IndyCar.

Also, the race promoters had offered a special "bounty" on the race of $5 million, to be split between the winning driver and a fan...so long as the winning driver was not a series regular. This lead to an expanded field of 34 cars, far more than is common for an IndyCar race, especially on so short a track. Las Vegas Speedway is 1.544 miles in length.

So on race day, these insanely fast cars reached the eleventh lap before tragedy struck. Some of the cars tangled and some went airborne. At the back of the pack, working his way rapidly to the front, was Dan Wheldon, a former series champion and 2-time Indy 500 winner. He couldn't slow down in time and catapulted over a slowing car. His car barrel-rolled and slammed into the catch fence. As a result of the accident, Wheldon suffered head injuries that ultimately caused his death. He had spent most of the year testing the new Dallara chassis and his feedback was critical to the company. He had also just signed a multi-year deal to replace Danica Patrick, who was departing full-time into NASCAR.

The race was red flagged and Wheldon was life-flighted to a local hospital. After nearly two hours the drivers were called into a special meeting. Anyone familiar with motor sports knows that when a race is stopped and then the drivers are summoned to a special meeting, it usually is not a good sign. IndyCar officials announced that Wheldon has succumbed to his injuries. The drivers went out and did a five lap tribute to Wheldon as "Amazing Grace" and Danny Boy" were played over the speakers.

But to the point Robert and I were discussing: How does IndyCar recover? When Ayrton Senna and Roland Ratzenberger were killed, the F1 season was only three races old. They had a whole season to rebuild their safety reputation and image. IndyCar doesn't have that luxury. The season is over and all that is left are questions.

NASCAR driver Jimmie Johnson voiced his opinion that IndyCar does not belong on ovals. I actually agree with him, because these cars are built for speed and downforce better suited for road courses and street circuits. The fact that IndyCars would do 225 miles per hour on a 1.544 mile oval is terrifying. Formula 1 cars, which are among the most technologically advanced on the planet, rarely top 200 miles per hour for extended periods. There are a few long straights, but most of the courses have enough slow turns to keep the cars in check.

IndyCar's premier event is, of course, the Indianapolis 500, which is run on a rectangular, oval course. The track has some bumps and that allows the field to separate itself. There are other ovals, like Kentucky Motor Speedway, that provide some great action. But my preference is road course racing, which IndyCar does, and may have to increase in light of this incident. There are great road courses in the US: Road America, Road Atlanta, Sebring, Homestead Miami, Watkins Glen, Laguna Seca, Sears Point, Miller Motor Sports Park. It's not like IndyCar will be lacking for road courses. IndyCar also runs street circuits, like the Streets of St. Pete and the new Baltimore street circuit. It may be time to to look for some new road courses, as well.

Perhaps the leading factor in the Wheldon accident was the size of the field. IndyCar usually has a 26 car field, perhaps 28. Formula 1 only recently bumped up to 24 cars in the field. NASCAR has always been the outlier, typically running events with 43-car fields. But NASCAR is a lot slower then IndyCar, and also has enclosed wheels, meaning a difference in downforce and accident potential. It was rapidly reported that drivers were complaining about so many cars.

The track at Las Vegas had SAFER barriers, but in this case the SAFER barrier meant very little, because Wheldon's car was airborne and was higher than the top of the barrier. He hit the catch fence with such force that the roll bar at the top of the car was torn off. It may be that IndyCar has to take a long, hard look at chassis construction. The new Dallara chassis that Wheldon was testing may require upgrades to the safety features to push it above the level of safety these old style cars attained.

Truthfully, I'm not sure how IndyCar overcomes this. They've got to work hard at it, because there isn't another race to help the healing process. In fact, IndyCar will not take to the track again until late March 2012. The best course of action is for IndyCar to put their public relations machine in motion and really tout the virtues of the Dallara chassis and its safety measures.

Race commentator Marty Reid signed off the ABC broadcast by saying: "People ask me why, when I sign off I say 'until we meet again'. Because goodbye is so final. Goodbye Dan Wheldon." We, too, say goodbye to Dan Wheldon. He was a fantastic driver, and it is a sad day across all motor sport when a driver dies. Our hope now is that IndyCar uses the passing of Dan Wheldon to improve the safety and quality of their vehicles.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Football Future-see 2011: Week Eight

RECORD

Week One..........5-2

Week Two..........3-2

Week Three........5-0

Week Four..........4-1

Week Five..........4-1

Week Six...........5-0

Week Seven......5-0

Week Eight........3-2

Overall...............34-8


The first Football Future-see was week two of the 2007 season. It wasn't until week 14 of the 2010 season that I had my "perfect week" of 5 correct picks against 0 incorrect picks. That was a nerve-wracking time. But this year I have three Perfect Weeks in seven attempts. I'm 31-6 on the season, a winning percentage of .837 for the year. I haven't incorrectly picked a game since September. So here are the games for week eight. Georgia is idle this week, and you know that UGA is my permanent pick, meaning I always pick their game. The Dawgs have a week off to prep for their showdown with Florida. Florida is also off, as is South Carolina. The SEC East is down to UGA and South Carolina, although the Gamecocks own the head-to-head tiebreaker, meaning the Dawgs need to win out and hope SC loses to either Tennessee, Florida, or Arkansas.


USC at Notre Dame______INCORRECT

The Irish are subject to many realignment rumors. Some say that eventually the Irish will have to join a conference to maintain any chance at reaching the National Title game. USC is recovering from the fallout punishment of the Reggie Bush scandal. This is usually a good game, and this year it feels like ND wants it more.

FINAL SCORE: Notre Dame 26, USC 20


4 Wisconsin at 15 Michigan State_______INCORRECT

Sparty knocked off Michigan last week, and for their efforts they were rewarded with an 8-spot jump in the polls. Wisconsin is nigh unstoppable. I actually would have no problem with Wisconsin jumping over Oklahoma at some point. I think the Badgers are one of the best teams in the nation, after a certain two SEC teams.

FINAL SCORE: Wisconsin 34, Michigan State 24


19 Auburn at 1 LSU_______CORRECT

LSU is still ranked #1. Auburn is coming off a win over Florida. This will be a good, titanic battle in the SEC West. Auburn is surprisingly good, but LSU is just a whole lot better.

FINAL SCORE: LSU 35, Auburn 17


Tennessee at 2 Alabama_______CORRECT

You have to feel sorry for Tennessee. They played a revamped Georgia team with a good defense, then they played an LSU team with perhaps the best defense in the game, and now they have to play Alabama, who oddly enough has a good defense. And Tennessee is injury plagued at the moment.

FINAL SCORE: Alabama 31, Tennessee 7


Washington at 7 Stanford_______CORRECT

Washington is 5-1 on the year, but they've lost to the only ranked team they've played. Stanford is averaging over 45 points per game while giving up an average of just over 11. Still, this game has a chance to be close.

FINAL SCORE: Stanford 27, Washington 24

Saturday, October 15, 2011

Football Future-see 2011: Week Seven

RECORD

Week One..........5-2

Week Two..........3-2

Week Three........5-0

Week Four..........4-1

Week Five..........4-1

Week Six...........5-0

Week Seven......5-0

Overall...............31-6


11 Michigan at 23 Michigan State CORRECT

Strange things happen when these two teams get together. Michigan is off to their best start in years, but Sparty is a tough task no matter who you are. This is yet another game where my pick would be different if it were in a different stadium. Spartans, what is your profession?

FINAL SCORE: Michigan State 27, Michigan 24


6 Oklahoma State at 22 Texas CORRECT

You just know the Okie State offense is looking at the film of what the Sooners did to Texas and thinking that they’ll have a similar day. The Cowboys have one of the best receivers in the game in Justin Blackmon. Look for him to be the target on several plays, as Texas goes down to defeat for the second straight week.

FINAL SCORE: Oklahoma State 40, Texas 28


Georgia at Vanderbilt CORRECT

Less than a month ago UGA was 0-2 and talk was growing about how long Richt would last as head coach. Now UGA is 4-2, including three straight conference wins and for all intents and purposes controls its own destiny (yes, South Carolina owns the head-to-head, but SC still has to play three straight conference road games, culminating in a trip to Arkansas on November 5). Vanderbilt started the season strong, but they are Vandy.

FINAL SCORE: Georgia 27, Vanderbilt 17


20 Baylor at 21 Texas A&M CORRECT

The battle of the team that is leaving the Big XII and the team that tried to keep them there. Texas A&M is in the midst of a farewell tour that is not going very well for them and Baylor’s Robert Griffith III is looking to make some more Heisman waves. This game is in College Station, which means a plus for the Aggies. Close game, but A&M wins it.

FINAL SCORE: Texas A&M 24, Baylor 21


Florida at 24 Auburn CORRECT

Florida has lost to Alabama and LSU in back-to-back weeks. They face Auburn this week, and then get a week off before meeting UGA in Jacksonville. If you’re read ahead and seen the predicted final, you can probably make an educated guess that I’m calling for Florida to lose four straight conference games. Such is life in the SEC when your QB is hurt, you have a new head coach, and you get that kind of murder’s-row schedule. Sorry, Florida.

FINAL SCORE: Auburn 28, Florida 20

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

A Dream for Formula 1

I don't remember the V12 days. I don't remember the era of Schumacher dominance. I didn't start watching F1 until July 2008. I'm coming up on the finale of my third complete season as a fan. So let me wrap up this first paragraph by saying congratulations to Sebastian Vettel for becoming the youngest double world champion ever. And yes, he did win the title with four races remaining.

So I got to thinking...how would I change F1 if given the opportunity? Like I said, I don't remember the glory days of the big engines. I do remember the aero-doodad-laden cars of 2008. In fact, I distinctly remember writing about them while comparing them to the 2009 models. Turns out, though, that the teams are setting lap times just as quick with these streamlined vehicles, so I don't know that I would change that.

So my thoughts jumped to what I could change: tracks. Hey, my thoughts jumped tracks. Ha!

I'm not so much in love with the endless procession of Tilkedromes that we are given every season. Bahrain is a parade, as is Valencia. Abu Dhabi isn't wide enough to produce good overtaking opportunities. We're about a month away from finding out how this new circuit in India will do. Korea last year was pretty good, but it was also a wet-weather race. I'd like to see it in the dry before passing judgment. Sepang has it's moments where it is great, and then moments where it is not so great. And the only good Tilkedrome, Istanbul, is now off the calendar for next year.

If given the opportunity to redesign the calendar for 2012, here is what I would do:
(Each grand prix name is linked to an onboard lap video)

March 18 - Australian Grand Prix - Albert Park, Melbourne
Melbourne stays because it is a good track that usually produces some very good racing.

March 25 - Malaysia Grand Prix - Sepang Circuit
Sepang is a good course with some great corners. Yeah, there's not much overtaking here, but perhaps a bit of track widening would make that better.

April 15 - Turkish Grand Prix - Istanbul Park (at 0:42 of the video, WATCH!)
The linked video shows a comparison between two cars going around this track. Turn 8, I don't like calling it Diabolika, is a beast that might be one of the best turns in all of F1.

April 29 - United States Grand Prix (Part I) - Watkins Glen International Circuit (starts at 2:53)
F1 once raced at Watkins Glen all the time. Maybe they should look at returning.

May 6 - European Grand Prix - Imola
I know that F1 drifted away from Imola over safety concerns, but it may be time to re-evaluate what is a wonderful track.

May 20 - Monaco Grand Prix - Circuit de Monte Carlo
Just watch the video. There is nothing more to say.

June 3 - German Grand Prix - Nurburgring (Nordschleife)
Yes, the Green Hell, all 186,000 turns of it. This would be about a 15 lap race. Fantastic.

June 10 - Canadian Grand Prix - Circuit Gilles Villeneuve
This is one of my favorite tracks.

July 1 - British Grand Prix - Silvertone Circuit
A classic track that was recently renovated. Still a good race every year.

July 15 - Austrian Grand Prix - A-1 Ring
This track is used mostly as a test track, but the video proves that this was a fun track to race at.

July 29 - German Grand Prix (Part II) - Old Hockenheimring (repave it!)
When Herman Tilke neutered the Hockenheimring, the city made the decision to rip up the old track and replant trees and grass. Well, cut 'em down and repave that track. It was awesome.

September 2 - Belgian Grand Prix - Spa-Francorchamps
This is it. My favorite track! Once the longest track on the circuit, but replaced in that role by The Green Hell.

September 9 - Italian Grand Prix - Monza, Italy
A fast track that is amazing in the dry. What about the wet? Ask our current world champion.

September 23 - Singapore Grand Prix - Marina Bay Street Circuit
There is just something about this circuit. I love the night race aspect, even if it is a bit of a procession.

October 7 - Japanese Grand Prix - Suzuka, Japan
Wonderful track with one of the best corners ever seen, the 130R.

October 14 - Korean Grand Prix - Korean International Circuit
Like I mentioned earlier, this was a fun race in the wet. If it is dry this year, we'll have a good sense of what this track actually is.

October 28 - Indian Grand Prix - Buddh International Circuit
Again, this track will get a grace period to prove itself.

November 4 - Chinese Grand Prix - Shanghai International Circuit
I love this circuit. The 3/4-mile back straight, the twists and turns. Sure, there's not much in the way of overtaking, but it is fun.

November 18 - United States Grand Prix (Part II) - Circuit of the Americas
Same as the Buddh circuit, the new circuit in Austin will get a grace period. The design is good, especially for Tilke. There are no chicanes.

November 25 - Brazilian Grand Prix - Interlagos, Brazil
I've been a fan of Interlagos since that race in 2008 where Lewis Hamilton claimed the title on the last turn of the last lap of the last race. It stays.

Sunday, October 09, 2011

A Saturday at Road Atlanta

Saturday, October 1, 2011. I was finally going to Road Atlanta for the first time. I was going to Petit Le Mans for the first time. My first endurance race.

We met up at Matt's house and went to a normal, healthy breakfast at Waffle House. After that we had a quick stop at Kroger to pick up foodstuffs for the race. Then it was on to the track.

I had to park over a quarter of a mile from the track, and the walk was really quite nice. The weather was fantastic, with a high of about 65 and a light wind all day. Unfortunately for me, Road Atlanta is uphill, both ways. I never knew just how much elevation change there was at the track, but it is quite a bit.

We had two cars, but only one infield pass, so I opted to park outside and let the guys with the SUV go in, as they could carry all our stuff. We eventually reached the car, after several wrong turns and much arguing about where they were. From there the discussion turned to where we should watch the race from. Some of the guys wanted to go to turn 9, one of the faster points on the track. I tagged along with Matt ad some of the others, heading to the Esses.

We reached a good spot between turns 4 and 5 just as the parade lap was rolling off the grid. The line of 53 cars rolled by and tried my best to get a cursory glance at each one. Audis, Peugeots, Ferraris, Astins. It was going to be a good day.

A few seconds after the last car disappeared over the hill of turn 5 I heard four loud pops in the direction of the start/finish line and then a loud roar filled the air. I looked toward the exit of turn 3 and saw what I later described as a cartoon image of Taz, the Tasmanian Devil, coming into view.

The dust cloud billowed and the fast cars rolled by. We stayed at the Esses for a while. The trick with the Esses is that it is a beautiful part of the track, but you are unlikely to see any overtaking moves. More often than not, you'll see the faster cars setting up there runs on the slower cars for turn 5.
View of the Esses

After our stay at the Esses we began to migrate around the track. We went to turn 8, 9, 10a, and 10b before an excursion to Vendor Village and then over to turn 3. As the ten hour race wore on I decided to try to finally find Robert and Carl. I met up with them in the grandstands of turn 10 just as night was falling. We still had about two hours of racing left, but through a stroke of luck I met up with them at the right time.

We made our way to the paddock and settled in near the Intersport Racing pit as the final laps wound down. Intersport was leading the LMPC class, but it was coming down to the wire. Sadly, Intersport lost out by .172 seconds, losing the lead on the last turn of the last lap.

As the race ended I said my goodbyes and began the long walk back to my car, knowing that I had people depending on me for a ride. We drove back to Matt's house and unloaded, weary from the day. By my best estimate, I walked around 12 or 13 miles Saturday, a lot of it going uphill. And I can't wait to go back.

Friday, October 07, 2011

Football Future-see 2011: Week Six

RECORD

Week One..........5-2

Week Two..........3-2

Week Three........5-0

Week Four..........4-1

Week Five..........4-1

Week Six...........5-0

Overall...............26-6


3 Oklahoma vs 11 Texas (Neutral Site) CORRECT

There is uncertainty at every turn in the Big XII. It looks like the conference stabilized after losing Colorado(PAC-12), Nebraska(Big Ten), and Texas A&M(SEC), but now the curators at Missouri have given the school the right to seek a new conference, likely the SEC, but possibly the Big Ten. Meanwhile, this could be the last Big XII sanctioned Red River Rivalry game we see. Oklahoma has done nothing wrong, they’ve won every game, and they’ve dropped in the polls. A convincing win over the Longhorns and any potential or perceived hiccups by LSU or Alabama will return some momentum to the Sooners.

FINAL SCORE: Oklahoma 31, Texas 21


17 Florida at 1 LSU CORRECT

Poor Florida. Not only did Alabama run roughshod over you last week, but they also darn-near killed your quarterback. Now you have a young, rather untested starter going into the SEC’s version of Death Valley against the number one team in the country. That’s harsh, even by SEC standards. PoorFlorida.

FINAL SCORE: LSU 35, Florida 14


Georgia at Tennessee CORRECT

UGA started the season with consecutive losses, albeit to two of the then-top 12 teams in the nation. No other team in the FBS had such a tough start to their season, nor did any other team have to wear such ugly uniforms in week one, and I’m including Oregon and Maryland in that statement. Now the Dawgs go to Neyland Stadium, a place that is vicious on visiting teams. But Georgia has won three in a row, two of which were conference games. This will be a test for UGA, but I can see them winning. (Have I ever picked against Georgia?)

FINAL SCORE: Georgia 27, Tennessee 21


15 Auburn at 10 Arkansas CORRECT

Auburn has been all over the charts this year. They’ve dropped out of the top 25 twice, I think, and are now 15th in the polls, and it’s just week 6. The Tigers took down South Carolina last week, strengthening their own resume and turning the SEC East into a true free-for-all. Arkansas just wins, baby. This will be a close game, and if it were at Auburn I would probably pick a different outcome.

FINAL SCORE: Arkansas 28, Auburn 24


Ohio State at 14 Nebraska CORRECT

The Huskers are coming off an embarrassment of a loss to Wisconsin. Ohio State can’t seem to go more than five minutes without some kind of NCAA penalty being handed down or some player being suspended. Nebraska comes home with an opportunity to regain some momentum in the Big Ten (or is it Big Ten plus Two, or B1G…what the heck is B1G?) title race. Sorry Buckeyes, but you’ve drawn the wrong time to go to Lincoln.

FINAL SCORE: Nebraska 34, Ohio State 17