Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Football Future-see 2013: Bowl Season Edition

RECORD
Week 1
8-2

Week 2
4-1

Week 3
4-1

Week 4
5-0

Week 5
5-0

Week 6
3-2

Week 7
2-3

Week 8
1-4

Week 9
4-1

Week 10
4-1

Week 11
4-1

Week 12
3-2

Week 13
4-1

Week 14
7-3

Champ Week
5-3

Bowl Week
19-16

Total
82-41
.667

Well, it’s bowl season. The match-ups are set, several fan-bases are angry, several fan-bases are delighted, and several fan-bases just don’t care. There are some good games scattered throughout this bowl season (Fresno State vs USC) and there are some bad ones (UNLV vs North Texas). Should be fun to watch.

UPDATE (24 December, 11:50am) - I'm 2-3 through the first five bowl games. Colorado State pulled off a furious rally, Fresno State didn't show up, and the weather didn't have the anticipated effect on Buffalo and San Diego State. However, I got the Ragin' Cajuns right, and I actually predicted Ohio's score correctly. Let's see how the next round of games goes...

UPDATE (28 December, 5:45pm) - I'm 4-8 through 12 games. As of this writing UNC is dominating Cincinnati, but there is still a good bit of time remaining.

UPDATE (1 January, 7:55pm) - I'm 16-11 with 8 games remaining, one of which is in progress as of this writing, and Michigan State is currently winning. My readers know I'm a Georgia fan...and, man, did they ever find new and exciting ways of beating themselves today. Maybe the last eight will go well for me...

UPDATE (7 January, 6:45pm) - All the games are over, and I went 19-16 on my bowl picks for an overall record 82-41. Not good, but at least I was over .500.

On to the picks… (All times Eastern Standard.)

**December 21, 2013**
Gildan New Mexico Bowl (2:00pm, ESPN).....INCORRECT
Washington State vs Colorado State (University Stadium – Albuquerque, NM)
Washington State has the 4th best passing game in the nation and they’re facing the 111th ranked passing defense. I just wonder which will be worn out first from the passing attack, Colorado State’s defense or WSU QB Connor Halliday. Cougars take down the Rams.
Final Score: Washington State 52, Colorado State 24

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl (3:30pm, ABC).....INCORRECT
20 Fresno State vs 25 USC (Sam Boyd Stadium – Las Vegas, NV)
Fresno State is coming off a Mountain West title win after narrowly missing the BCS. USC is in coaching turmoil and that will affect the players. Fresno State by 10.
Final Score: Fresno State 34, USC 24

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (5:30pm, ESPN).....INCORRECT
Buffalo vs San Diego State (Bronco Stadium – Boise, ID)
I’ve always thought of San Diego State as one of those teams that can sneak up on just about anyone. Buffalo has had an up-and-down season this year, playing Ohio State decently well for a time, but otherwise not too impressive. The deciding factor here will be weather. San Diego State will not be accustomed to the cold that Boise produces. Buffalo will. Buffalo wins a close game.
Final Score: Buffalo 24, San Diego State 20

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (3:30pm, ABC).....CORRECT
Louisiana-Lafayette vs Tulane (Superdome – New Orleans, LA)
The Ragin’ Cajuns of Louisiana-Lafayette were among the first teams to lock down bowl berths. This is a bowl of convenience for both teams, since neither has to travel half the country to play someone. Because of the early berth, I’m guessing this bowl saw something in ULL that I’ve not seen. I’ll take the Cajuns to knock off Tulane.
Final Score: Louisiana-Lafayette 28, Tulane 20

**December 23, 2013**
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl (2:00pm, ESPN).....CORRECT
East Carolina vs Ohio (Tropicana Field – St. Petersburg, FL)
Let’s just say East Carolina wins by ten.
Final Score: East Carolina 30, Ohio 20

**December 24, 2013**
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (8:00pm, ESPN).....CORRECT
Boise State vs Oregon State (Aloha Stadium – Honolulu, HI)
The Hawaii Bowl is a contender for best pre-Christmas bowl game. Oregon State has a good offense, as does Boise State. I think we’ll see a higher-scoring game, with Oregon State coming out on top, now that Boise State is without a head coach. Beavers win.
Final Score: Oregon State 35, Boise State 32

**December 26, 2013**
Little Caesars Bowl (6:00pm, ESPN).....INCORRECT
Pittsburgh vs Bowling Green (Ford Field – Detroit, MI)
Bowling Green is the only team to beat Northern Illinois. Under any other circumstances, not one person would care. But NIU was a BCS dark horse and Bowling Green yanked all of that away from them. As a reward, BGSU gets a berth in the Little Caesars Bowl. They don’t even get to go somewhere nice. They’re going to Detroit. They’ll face ACC foe Pittsburgh, but I like Bowling Green to win this one.
Final Score: Bowling Green 34, Pittsburgh 16

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (9:30pm, ESPN).....INCORRECT
Utah State vs 23 Northern Illinois (Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, CA)
From the edges of the BCS discussion to the lower tier of bowl games…that’s unfortunately what happens when you don’t play in the power conferences. Northern Illinois brings their high-power offense, led by QB Jordan Lynch, to San Diego to take on Utah State. I think the Huskies roll in Lynch’s last appearance.
Final Score: Northern Illinois 35, Utah State 17

**December 27, 2013**
Northrop Grumman Military Bowl (2:30pm, ESPN).....INCORRECT
Marshall vs Maryland (Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium – Annapolis, MD)
Maryland was ranked at one point this season. Let that sink in. The Terrapins were ranked one weekend, and by the end of the next weekend had given up 63 points to Florida State. Marshall was never beaten so badly, but neither of these teams are setting the world on fire. Maryland needs to make a statement as they jump to the Big Ten. Terps win.
Final Score: Maryland 26, Marshall 21

Texas Bowl (6:00pm, ESPN).....INCORRECT
Syracuse vs Minnesota (Reliant Stadium – Houston, TX)
If any conference needs a good bowl run, it’s the Big Ten. Minnesota had a really good season, but now find themselves in the Texas Bowl taking on Syracuse. The Golden Gophers should carry one like always in this game. I like Minnesota to win.
Final Score: Minnesota 31, Syracuse 20

Fight Hunger Bowl (9:30pm, ESPN).....INCORRECT
Washington vs BYU (AT&T Park – San Francisco, CA)
Washington is on the head-coach-carousel, losing Steve Sarkisian, but gaining Chris Petersen. That could be bad for the Huskies, though, as they lose the continuity of a coaching staff at bowl time. BYU, meanwhile, is quietly a decent team. Their signature win was a victory over Texas. The coaching situation in this one tells me that BYU wins.
Final Score: BYU 24, Washington 18

**December 28, 2013**
New Era Pinstripe Bowl (12:00pm, ESPN).....CORRECT
Rutgers vs Notre Dame (Yankee Stadium – Bronx, NY)
Rutgers really is not a good team. They’re in this bowl because they fill a slot and they have a lot of local fans. Notre Dame is much the same way, though they’re a lot better than Rutgers. Still, this is quite the fall from grace for a team that played for a National Championship last year. That may weigh on the minds on the Irish, but I doubt it. Notre Dame wins handily.
Final Score: Notre Dame 33, Rutgers 9

Belk Bowl (3:30pm, ESPN).....CORRECT
Cincinnati vs North Carolina (Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC)
Landing North Carolina for a spot in this game was probably the best move the Belk Bowl could make. It’s easier to bring in local fans for a lower tier bowl game like this. Cincinnati, on the other hand, provides UNC a match-up they don’t often see. The Bearcats were a quiet team this year, while UNC had several higher-profile games. I think that works in the Tar Heels’ favor. UNC wins.
Final Score: North Carolina 26, Cincinnati 17

Russell Athletic Bowl (6:45pm, ESPN).....CORRECT
Miami vs 18 Louisville (Florida Citrus Bowl – Orlando, FL)
The likely #1 Overall selection in the 2014 NFL Draft is not playing in the BCS or on New Year’s Day. He’s playing on December 28. Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater has a decision to make concerning entering the Draft. He’s already announced that he’ll not make that decision until after the bowl game. Miami, who made much noise over beating Florida (and really, who didn’t beat Florida this year?) limps into this game an injured squad. There are too many health question on the ‘Canes and too much speed on Louisville. Cardinals win.
Final Score: Louisville 30, Miami 17

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl (10:15pm, ESPN).....INCORRECT
Michigan vs Kansas State (Sun Devil Stadium – Tempe AZ)
This one should be called the “How We Screwed Up Life For Everyone Else” Bowl. Taking Michigan created a ripple effect that caused a rematch from last year to occur in a bowl not called the National Championship. K-State lost to an FCS team at the start of the season and Michigan took Ohio State to the brink at the end of the season. For that reason, I think Michigan wins.
Final Score: Michigan 30, Kansas State 23

**December 30, 2013**
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl (11:45am, ESPN).....CORRECT
Middle Tennessee State vs Navy (Amon G. Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, TX)
Navy is coming off a big win over rival Army, though it’s hard to consider them rivals. Army hasn’t won in about twelve years. The Midshipmen feature an offense that is hard to contain, though because of their status as a service academy, it’s difficult for them to draw the same talent as a power conference. Still, this is the Armed Forces Bowl…I’d be remiss if I chose anyone other than a service academy to win. Go Navy, beat MTSU.
Final Score: Navy 31, Middle Tennessee 21

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl (3:15pm, ESPN).....CORRECT
Ole Miss vs Georgia Tech (LP Field – Nashville, TN)
Georgia Tech runs the Paul Johnson Triple Option. Ole Miss runs the Hugh Freeze spread offense. This should make for a fun offensive game. I’ll most likely hate it. Gotta go with the SEC, though. Ole Miss wins.
Final Score: Ole Miss 37, Georgia Tech 34

Valero Alamo Bowl (6:45pm, ESPN).....CORRECT
10 Oregon vs Texas (Alamodome – San Antonio, TX)
Mack Brown has announced that this is his last game coaching the Longhorns. That changes the game a bit for me. I originally had Oregon winning this game 37-17, but now that the players know this is the last time they’ll share a sideline with a coaching legend like Mack Brown, I think the Texas players will step up. I still think Oregon wins, just because they have better talent and depth, but the Longhorns will not let them run away with this one. Oregon wins a much closer game than I originally thought.
Final Score: Oregon 31, Texas 26

National University Holiday Bowl (10:15pm, ESPN).....INCORRECT
14 Arizona State vs Texas Tech (Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, CA)
An underrated game, the Holiday Bowl features the PAC-12 runner-up against a team that I still think is about a year ahead of schedule. Texas Tech should be even better next season. The Sun Devils, conversely, are a team that always seems on the cusp of making a splash, but they never truly come through. I think Arizona State wins this game, but the Red Raiders keep it close.
Final Score: Arizona State 28, Texas Tech 26

**December 31, 2013**
AdvoCare V100 (Independence) Bowl (12:30pm, ESPN).....CORRECT
Arizona vs Boston College (Independence Stadium – Shreveport, LA)
This one should be renamed as the Running Back Bowl. Arizona’s KaDeem Carey and Boston College’s DeAndre Williams were both in beast mode all year. The running games will definitely be the focus of this one, but I think that opens up the passing lanes for the QBs. Boston College played Florida State closer than anyone this year. Arizona beat Oregon 42-16. If the passing game becomes key to victory, then I think I like Arizona a little better in this one.
Final Score: Arizona 30, Boston College 24

Hyundai Sun Bowl (2:00pm, CBS).....CORRECT
Virginia Tech vs 17 UCLA (Sun Bowl – El Paso, TX)
The Myles Jack show rolls into El Paso, where the Bruins of UCLA will put their stud player on display for the few hundred thousand people who will tune in. This is actually, I think, a rather underrated match-up. VT QB Logan Thomas is nearing the end of his collegiate career, and a bowl win would be a nice cherry on top. Unfortunately, I don’t think VT can hang with UCLA for four quarters. Bruins win.
Final Score: UCLA 28, Virginia Tech 17

AutoZone Liberty Bowl (4:00pm, ESPN).....CORRECT
Rice vs Mississippi State (Liberty Bowl– Memphis, TN)
Mississippi State heads north to Memphis for a match-up with Conference USA opponent Rice. There was a time when Rice was a national player. But that time’s not been for a long time. Bulldogs win.
Final Score: Mississippi State 34, Rice 17

Chick-fil-A Bowl (8:00pm, ESPN).....CORRECT
24 Duke vs 21 Texas A&M (Georgia Dome – Atlanta, GA)
There will be a good bit of hype around this game, simply because it is likely Johnny Manziel’s final collegiate game. Duke had a great season, by Duke standards, and made it all the way to the ACC Championship, where they were throttled by Florida State. The Blue Devils may be able to hang around for a bit, but I get the feeling that this one won’t be close. I think the Aggies pull away for a big win.
Final Score: Texas A&M 42, Duke 14

**January 1, 2014**
taxSlayer.com Gator Bowl (12:00pm, ESPN2).....INCORRECT
Nebraska vs 22 Georgia (Everbank Field – Jacksonville, FL)
Yep, it’s a rematch from last year. Yep, both teams lost their starting QBs to injuries. Yep, both teams having powerful running backs. However, Georgia’s backup QB, Hutson Mason, played really well in fill-in duty against Kentucky and then led the Dawgs to a come-from-behind win over Georgia Tech. I think UGA wins this one rather easily. What I’m more concerned with is this: Would a Georgia margin of victory of 14 points or more mean Bo Pelini might be out at Nebraska?
Final Score: Georgia 38, Nebraska 24

Heart of Dallas Bowl (12:00pm, ESPNU).....CORRECT
UNLV vs North Texas (Cotton Bowl – Dallas, TX)
Most of the previews I’ve read say this is basically the worst match-up among the bowls. North Texas’s biggest match this season was a trip to Georgia. I’m not even sure who UNLV has played. Given that I’ve seen North Texas, I’m going with them to win.
Final Score: North Texas 17, UNLV 14

Capital One Bowl (1:00pm, ABC).....CORRECT
19 Wisconsin vs 9 South Carolina (Florida Citrus Bowl – Orlando, FL)
This will be a good game. Wisconsin was on the verge of possibly getting a BCS berth, but then Penn State came to Madison. The Gamecocks, on the other hand, had the standard roller coaster season of the SEC East. Injuries played a part, as QB Connor Shaw was out for a while. DE Jadaveon Clowney is likely playing his last collegiate game, which will bring more eyes to the TV set for this game. If Wisconsin can find a way to contain Connor Shaw, they might have a chance. I don’t think they can. Gamecocks win.
Final Score: South Carolina 34, Wisconsin 21

Outback Bowl (1:00pm, ESPN).....CORRECT
Iowa vs 16 LSU (Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL)
LSU is the only team to put a loss on Auburn this year. They head to Tampa to face Iowa in what seems a bit of a mismatch. Iowa is 8-4, which isn’t anything to be ashamed of. The Hawkeyes, though, have a brutal front seven on defense. LSU is missing QB Zach Mettenberger (who in the SEC isn’t missing their QB?) and that may cost them in this game. Still, I think the Bayou Bengals have too much depth and too many weapons for Iowa to stop. Tigers win.
Final Score: LSU 31, Iowa 20

Rose Bowl Game (5:00pm, ESPN).....CORRECT
5 Stanford vs 4 Michigan State (Rose Bowl – Pasadena, CA)
Two fantastic defensive teams, which usually means a high-scoring game. However, I don’t see that happening here. To reach this game, Michigan State exposed the Buckeyes of Ohio State and Stanford flat ran Arizona State out of their own house. Sparty has ridden their defense to victory and, save for a stumbling against Notre Dame, might’ve been playing in the National Championship. Stanford is one of the best two-loss teams to play college football. If the score stays low, I like Michigan State. If points begin to pile up, then I like Stanford. That said, I think the score stays low. Sparty wins.
Final Score: Michigan State 17, Stanford 14

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (8:30pm, ESPN).....INCORRECT
6 Baylor vs 15 UCF (University of Phoenix Stadium – Glendale, AZ)
Baylor was, for a while, a dark horse contender for a shot at the National Championship. Central Florida had a key victory over Louisville and, since then, hasn’t been impressive at all. Honestly, I’m not sure this will even be close. Baylor rolls.
Final Score: Baylor 51, UCF 24

**January 2, 2014**
Allstate Sugar Bowl (8:30pm, ESPN).....INCORRECT
11 Oklahoma vs 3 Alabama (Superdome – New Orleans, LA)
A case could be made for several other teams being more deserving of a spot here than Oklahoma, but the system put the Sooners here simply because the Sugar Bowl knows the Sooner fanbase will travel. Alabama is basically in a consolation game, coming off a last-second loss to Auburn. But, simply put, Alabama is just plain better than Oklahoma, and AJ McCarron will lead the Crimson Tide to a comfortable victory.
Final Score: Alabama 41, Oklahoma 21

**January 3, 2014**
AT&T Cotton Bowl (7:30pm, FOX).....CORRECT
13 Oklahoma State vs 8 Missouri (AT&T Stadium – Dallas, TX)
This is an old Big XII match-up featuring two pretty good teams. Oklahoma State is coming off a loss in Bedlam and Missouri is coming off a loss in the SEC Championship Game. That said, Missouri has more to play for here, and their defense is pretty darn good. I think Oklahoma State comes out strong, but Missouri will win out in the end.
Final Score: Missouri 35, Oklahoma State 31

Discover Orange Bowl (8:30pm, ESPN).....INCORRECT
12 Clemson vs 7 Ohio State (Sun Life Stadium – Miami, FL)
This is a pretty interesting game, considering that Ohio State was in contention for a national title game berth just a couple weeks back, they may not have the same motivation here that Clemson may be carrying. That said Clemson is coming off a loss to South Carolina, which could negatively affect them. I expect a close game here, but I also think the Buckeyes will win.
Final Score: Ohio State 28, Clemson 24

**January 4, 2014**
BBVA Compass Bowl (1:00pm, ESPN).....CORRECT
Vanderbilt vs Houston (Legion Field – Birmingham, AL)
Vanderbilt is not far from landing spots on New Year’s Day (which is more prestigious than playing on January 4th). The trick will be Vanderbilt keeping their coach. James Franklin will likely be in high demand after this season. Houston is a pretty decent team. But I think Vanderbilt is a better team. Commodores win.
Final Score: Vanderbilt 28, Houston 21

**January 5, 2014**
GoDaddy Bowl (1:00pm, ESPN).....INCORRECT
Ball State vs Arkansas State (Ladd-Peebles Stadium – Mobile, AL)
I’m taking Ball State to win this one for one reason. Arkansas State is making their third consecutive trip to this particular bowl. That could mean inspiration will be tough to come by for Arkansas State. Ball State wins, just because of that.
Final Score: Ball State 24, Arkansas State 17

**January 6, 2014**
Vizio BCS National Championship Game (8:30pm, ESPN).....INCORRECT
1 Florida State vs 2 Auburn (Rose Bowl – Pasadena, CA)
Auburn has ridden a wave of luck, miracles, and a running game that is crushing anything in its path. Florida State dominated a schedule that was not that great. FSU, it is said, is loaded with elite athletes. One anchor from a certain Acronym sports network said the Seminoles were built like an SEC team. Auburn, though, is capable of running the ball on anyone. FSU may actually be the best defense they’ve played all year, but I still think the Tigers will be able to move on the ground. That should wear down the ‘Noles defense and open up some passing lanes for Auburn. FSU won’t go away easily, but I think Auburn can score enough to win. Also, until someone actually beats the SEC in the National Championship Games, I have a hard time picking against the SEC. Tigers win a close one.
Final Score: Auburn 37, Florida State 34

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Football Future-see 2013: Regular Season Recap

RECORD
Week 1
8-2

Week 2
4-1

Week 3
4-1

Week 4
5-0

Week 5
5-0

Week 6
3-2

Week 7
2-3

Week 8
1-4

Week 9
4-1

Week 10
4-1

Week 11
4-1

Week 12
3-2

Week 13
4-1

Week 14
7-3

Champ Week
5-3

Bowl Week


Total
63-25
.716

The “regular season” is over. Of course, only in college football can the “regular season” include conference championship games. It’s the only regular season where certain teams are guaranteed of playing more games than other teams. As for the record, I suppose 63-25 isn’t bad.

So we move on to bowl season, where it seems that, for two fan bases, familiarity is about to breed some serious contempt. Georgia went 8-4 on a season in which everyone wearing red and black got injured. Anyone reading these posts knows that I’ve been calling for Georgia to appear in the Gator Bowl for a while. Turns out, that was right. Georgia is in the Gator Bowl. I had hoped for a UGA-Michigan match-up. That was wrong. The Dawgs are stuck playing Nebraska again. These two teams just met last season in the Capital One bowl.

As for how I see it, the five best bowl games, the ones you should DVR to watch again, are:
5 - Las Vegas Bowl: Fresno State vs USC
4 - Orange Bowl: Clemson vs Ohio State
3 - Capital One Bowl: Wisconsin vs South Carolina
2 - Rose Bowl: Michigan State vs Stanford
1 - BCS National Championship Game: FSU vs Auburn

On to the picks…oh, wait, there aren’t any this week… Usually for bowl season I pick only the top ten bowls. I’m doing things differently this year. I’ll be picking all 35 bowl games. If I can get 20-25 of them right I’ll be more than happy.

The Right Wing Top Ten (RWT10)
Week Nine of the Right Wing Top Ten…now with championship game outcomes included. One team out, one team in.

In this week: Oregon
Out this week: Oklahoma State

10. Oregon Ducks
The Ducks are back in, though they’ve played rather uninspired football lately.

9. Ohio State Buckeyes
First time Ohio State really plays a tough team in the Urban Meyer era and what happens? That’s right, they lost.

8. Missouri Tigers
Mizzou hung with Auburn for a time, but Auburn is just on fire. Still, a great second SEC season for Missouri.

7. South Carolina Gamecocks
Last time on the field, South Carolina beat Clemson. Now they await a date with Wisconsin in Orlando.

6. Baylor Bears
Baylor won the Big XII thanks to Oklahoma State faltering in Bedlam. The Bears, though, are perhaps the most suspect of the major conference champions (UCF excluded).

5. Michigan State Spartans
Sparty rode a wave of momentum into Indianapolis, then hung 17 on Ohio State before the Buckeyes found the end zone. Sparty became the first team in two years to beat Ohio State, claiming a spot in the Granddaddy of ‘Em All in the process.

4. Stanford Cardinal
Stanford went to Arizona State and laid a beating on the Sun Devils. Yes, Stanford has two losses, but they also played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide
I still say that, on a neutral field, Alabama would beat anyone in the country.

2. Auburn Tigers
Auburn hung 59 on Missouri, setting SEC Championship Game records on almost every play. Now the Tigers are headed to Pasadena to play FSU for a National Championship.

1. Florida State Seminoles
Florida State allowed Duke to hang around for a short time, but eventually they ran away. Now the Seminoles are headed to Pasadena to play Auburn for a National Championship..

If the Playoff began today…
This is how I see the playoff shaping up, if it were to start today. Please note this does not necessarily reflect the RWT10 or the BCS Standings. This is how I think the committee would select. With Ohio State losing, I think the committee would take Michigan State, a one-loss conference champion. I think the second loss would hurt Stanford, even with their more impressive schedule. Alabama also gets in.
#1
Florida State
vs
#4
Michigan State
#2
Auburn
vs
#3
Alabama