Saturday, July 06, 2013

Formula 1 Predictions Revisited

On March 20 of this year, I wrote a blog post making some prediction on this Formula 1 season. Let's Revisit those predictions and see where I stand now...

March 20:

Driver’s Championship: Fernando Alonso
As much as I don’t want Alonso or Vettel to walk away with the title, I think it will be between them, as the Ferrari looks strong, and Alonso particularly so.

Manufacturer’s Championship: Scuderia Ferrari
The red cars were impressive in Melbourne. It appears as though Felipe Massa is finally back on form after suffering some setbacks, particularly after that scary incident at the Hungaroring a few years back. He drove well in Australia and frankly I’d like to see him out-duel Alonso this season.

Rookie of the Year: Esteban Gutierrez (Sauber)
Gutierrez has the best chance at this mark, simply because he has the best car of the rookies. In terms of pure skill, there might be better drivers, but Gutierrez gets the best kit.

Will the Mercedes W04 find the top of the podium?
Yes, I think it will. Lewis Hamilton is too good to go an entire season without a win. He’s brilliant at several tracks, including Spa, and he took the inaugural win at Austin, TX last season. I look for the W04 to find victory lane, thought not until after the summer break.

Will any teams drop out during the season?
No. It looks like everyone is settled in for 2013…but the fun starts in 2014.

Fifth Beatle has mentioned that he wants more races in more places. Where do you (I) think F1 will race in the future?
There are plans for a street circuit in Sochi, Russia, to follow the Winter Olympics. There is also talk of a race in Cape Town, South Africa, though I’m not sure how much push is behind that. The Port Imperial Street Circuit in New Jersey remains a possibility. But note that all of those are street circuits. I would prefer F1 stay on road courses. I wouldn’t mind a return to Watkins Glen. There are several circuits in Europe that have fallen off the calendar, including my favorite Tilkedrome, Istanbul Park.

How many races before the end of the season will the Driver’s Title be decided?
Given the similarities in strength between the Red Bull and the Ferrari, I think this season goes down to the wire. I can actually see the possibility of upwards of five or six drivers in the mix for the title entering Sao Paolo. Vettel, Alonso, Massa, Raikkonen, and Hamilton could all be in the mix. I would love to see Webber in the mix as well, but he suffers too many bad starts.

Short Answer Predictions:

Will Mark Webber win a grand prix this year? No.
Will anyone other than Red Bull start on the front row? Yes.
Will Lotus win more than one grand prix this year? Yes.
How many different winners will we see this year? Seven (Raikkonen, Alonso, Vettel, Button, Hamilton, Massa, Sutil)
You really think Adrian Sutil will win a grand prix? Yes, either India or Monza.

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The new predictions...
July 6, 2013:

Driver’s Championship: Kimi Raikkonen
Vettel has been shown to not be bulletproof. The Mercedes factory team is coming on, and the Lotus team is not going away. Alonso will be there, but I think Raikkonen is going to get better through the middle of this season.

Manufacturer’s Championship: Red Bull Renault
Okay, so Felipe Massa isn't back. In fact, he's the reason Ferrari is hurting. Alonso has held up his end of the bargain. Red Bull, on the other hand, is doing quite well. I don't see Romain Grosjean doing well enough to get Lotus the Constructor's Title.

Rookie of the Year: Valtteri Bottas (Williams)
Bottas had raced quite well, all things considered.

Will the Mercedes W04 find the top of the podium?
Yes, it already has. Merc found some pace (perhaps in that nigh-upon-illegal tyre test). Nico Rosberg has a couple of wins, and Lewis is primed for a win quite soon.

How many races before the end of the season will the Driver’s Title be decided?
I still think this one goes down to the end, thought it might not be as close as you'd think...it might be closer.

Short Answer Predictions:

Will Mark Webber win a grand prix this year? Still No.
Will anyone other than Red Bull start on the front row? Yes, they already have.
Will Lotus win more than one grand prix this year? Yes, I still think they will.
How many different winners will we see this year? Six (Raikkonen, Vettel, Alonso, Rosberg, Hamilton, Sutil)
You really think Adrian Sutil will win a grand prix? Yes, either India or Monza. I still think this will happen.

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