The first test of the preseason is complete, the teams have departed from Jerez, and, for the most part, every contender for the 2015 season has been unveiled (Caterham hasn't yet, Manor/Marussia is still struggling to make the grid, and Force India is fighting to reveal their contender). This post will cover the various cars so far released, and I'll give you my predictions at the end.
The Cars
First up on the list is the Mercedes AMG Petronas W06 Hybrid. Mercedes doesn't mess around with their livery, holding true to the nickname "Silver Arrows." Lewis Hamilton piloted the W05 to last year's World Driver's Championship, and his teammate, Nico Rosberg, came in second. The car was extremely reliable, save for an outing in Montreal that drove every Mercedes fan crazy.The car this year is a beauty. The paint scheme is only slightly different from last year, but the design is changed, albeit slightly. The nose dips a bit sharper, and tapers differently than last year's version. Given the reliability and long-running stints the W06 pulled off at Jerez, it looks like the Silver Arrows are the team to beat once again.
Last year's second place team, Red Bull Renault, unveiled the RB11 with an interim testing livery that, for all intents and purposes, was designed to disguise the innovations RBR has made in terms of aerodynamics. Personally, I kind of like the black and white scheme. Since this is a testing livery, don't be surprised if they go back to the drab, only-slightly-different-from-Toro-Rosso livery for the actual season.
Daniel Ricciardo will likely contend for the World Driver's Championship this year, if the Renault power plant can gain ground on Mercedes. New Red Bull teammate Daniil Kyvat will get a taste of life at the top of the ladder.
Our third contender this season is the Williams Martini F1 team, and their FW37. Last year Williams was a pleasant surprise, climbing from 9th in the Constructor's Standings in 2013 to 3rd last season. On several occasions the Williams outfit fought for the win, especially in Austria.
Felipe Massa returned to form last year, for the first time since his tragic accident in July 2009. Teammate Valtteri Bottas is a World Driver's Champion in the making. So long as Williams has this driver pairing, they will be a threat to win any grand prix this season.
Ferrari's contender for the 2015 season, the SF15-T, looks like it might suck, as evidenced in the picture on the right. The vacuum-cleaner nose will certainly help to keep the track clear of any debris. Granted, the driver's seat is not the most comfortable, but the prevailing thought is that Vettel should be able to win at least one race in 2015.
Alright, joking aside, the SF15-T, the real one, is actually a pretty decent looking car. The livery contains more black than is customary for the Scuderia, but it helps. Ever since Ferrari lost the ability to put the bar code on their car, as that somehow advertised for Marlboro, the Maranello outfit has struggled to create a good livery. Ferrari made one of the biggest driver moves of the season, allowing Fernando Alonso to walk so they could sign 4-Time Driver's Champion Sebastian Vettel. Pairing Vettel with Kimi Raikkonen, at least for this season, gives the Scuderia a strong lineup capable of winning any race.
The newest engine manufacturer, who used to be int he sport until a few years ago, is Honda, and they've teamed with McLaren. The Woking outfit unveiled the McLaren-Honda MP4-30. While the design is sleek, the biggest complaint for almost everyone is the livery. Every publicity photo McLaren released, especially after signing Fernando Alonso, used the old red and white McLaren's of the Ayrton Senna days. Then the MP4-30 was unveiled.
Once more McLaren used the silver color scheme. In fact, the McLaren-Honda contender looks like they just took the livery of Vodafone McLaren and West McLaren and smashed them together. I usually love the McLaren, but this year I'm finding that difficult. If the silver was white, I would like the car a lot more. Having Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button on one team should help them, though.
Next on the list is Sauber, and their C34. I'm not sure I've ever seen such an uninspired car take to the Formula 1 grid, but the C34 does not inspire any sort of confidence. If the livery was a bit more exciting, then maybe I'd be more partial to it. The driver line up, likewise, isn't one that screams championship contender. Marcus Ericsson, fresh off the heels of driving for Caterham, joins the Sauber team, driving alongside Felipe Nasr, who brought the Banco do Brasil sponsorship to Sauber.
Lotus takes to the grid this year with the E23, a much more aesthetically appealing contender than their walrus of a car last season. While the livery is much the same, the car looks much better than last year. Lotus swapped engine suppliers from Renault, who was far below competitive in 2014, and became partners with Mercedes, in hopes of much better results.
A driver pairing of Romain Grosjean and Pastor Maldonado gives Lotus some familiarity and continuity. Maldonado brings sponsors, but Grosjean is the better driver.
The final team to be reviewed is Scuderia Toro Rosso. I'm not going to lie, the STR11 is one of my favorite cars unveiled so far. It looks far better than Toro Rosso's contender from last season, which looked an awful lot like Gonzo from the Muppets. The STR11 replaces the muppet nose front with a much better design. The paint scheme is, for all intents and purposes the same as last season, with minor changes thanks to the revised nose.
The driver lineup for the Red Bull B-Team is Carlos Sainz Jr. and Max Verstappen, the youngest driver ever to compete in Formula 1. Verstappen will be only 17 when the season begins.
When Force India, Caterham, and Manor/Marussia release their cars, I'll review them. Now...
Predictions
Which new driver/team combination will prove the most effective on race day?
I really like the idea of Fernando Alonso in a McLaren-Honda, but I think the biggest winner of the driver’s musical chairs game this offseason will be Sebastian Vettel. Ferrari will be stronger than McLaren, meaning Seb will have a better overall season. This is not the second coming of Michael Schumacher, though.
Will Mercedes’s dominance continue?
Yes. The preseason test in Jerez proved one thing: Mercedes can run longer than any of their competitors while suffering fewer mechanical issues. This is bad news for Ferrari, Red Bull, and McLaren.
Who wins the Driver’s Championship this season?
I honestly think we see a repeat of 2014. Lewis Hamilton finally has the dominant car under him that he always sought at McLaren. Giving him a contender as strong as the W05 last year, and what we’ve seen of the W06 this year, means the Brit is likely on his way to his second straight, and third overall, World Driver’s Championship.
Okay, so we know who you think will win the Driver’s Title, but what about the Constructor’s Championship? It’s gotta be Mercedes, right?
Right. This one is a pretty safe call to make. Mercedes just has it all figured out right now. While their competitors are rushing to swap drivers, and hiring away engineers from one another, the Brackley outfit is quietly building a Formula 1 dynasty.
Who will be the first driver to be replaced?
Tough question. Last year I pegged McLaren’s Kevin Magnussen to be replaced, and while he has reverted to reserve driver status this year, he finished out the season more impressively than teammate Jenson Button. This season, I think either Sauber’s Marcus Ericsson or Toro Rosso’s Carlos Sainz Jr. will be the first to go…assuming anyone is actually booted off the grid during the season.
Will Fifth Beatle hang it up after this year and let someone else take the reins?
Every year this question shows up, and every year the answer is the same…Emphatically no. The only way anyone else will oversee Formula 1 is when they pry it from Bernie’s cold, dead fingers.
Alright, so tell us your pick for the top five finishers in the Driver’s Championship standings.
Obviously I’ve got Hamilton at the top, and I think Rosberg will be once more come home second. Rounding out the top five will be Williams’s Valtteri Bottas, Red Bull’s Daniel Ricciardo, and Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel.
How do you think the Constructor’s Title plays out? Give us your top five there.
Mercedes will, rather easily, sew up a second straight Constructor’s Championship. I look for Williams to come home second in the teams battle though, with Red Bull rounding out the podium. Ferrari and McLaren, with their new Honda power plant, will round out the top five.
