European Grand Prix Preview (Qualy Blog)

Formula 1 rolls into Valencia this week. I have the Formula 1 game on the Wii, and this is a very fun track to drive, but watching a race here has the high possibility of being boring. It is a narrow, bendy track, but it does not flow like Montreal does.

Today we'll review the qualifying sessions.

Alright, we'll pick this up with Q1 already finished. Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull, and the Renault of Robert Kubica battled for the top of the time sheet in this session. The eliminated drivers from Q1 include:

24 - Bruno Senna (HRT)

23 - Chandhok (HRT)

22 - Glock (Virgin)

21 - Lucas Di Grassi (Virgin)

20 - Kovalainen (Lotus)

19 - Trulli (Lotus)

18 - Kamui Kobayashi (Sauber)

Q2

In Q2, several cars hit the track as the session began. Fernando Alonso quickly found his way around a Scuderia Toro Rosso car. At the 9:15-remaining mark of Q2, Sebastian Vettel threw in a 1:38:015, the fastest time of qualifying so far.

Kubica, at 8:17, went to P3 for the session. He is currently the focal point of rumors that have Mercedes Grand Prix offering him a 3-year deal starting next season, to replace living legend Michael Schumacher.

With six minutes to go, Jenson Button was fastest through the speed trap, at 312.9 km/h.

Vitaly Petrov, with less than five minutes to go, is still in the top ten. Say what you will, the Russian rookie has been quite impressive this season. As an aside, Petrov lives in Valencia.

17 - Alguesuari (STR)

16 - De La Rosa (Sauber)

15 - Schumacher (Mercedes)

14 - Liuzzi (Force India)

13 - Sutil (Force India)

12 - Rosberg (Mercedes)

11 - Buemi (STR)

The drivers knocked out in Q2 are bracketed by the Scuderia Toro Rosso team. Interestingly, both Merc cars are out, with Schumacher right where he was when we left Montreal, staring up at the Force Indias.

Q3

Ten drivers remain, with Vettel and Webber fastest out of Q2. But now, we have a ten car shootout for pole position. Four cars hit the track almost immediately at the start of Q3.

To give you an idea of how large this track is, we're three minutes into the session and Alonso is only halfway through his first lap (not counting the recon lap).

Four minutes into the session, Lewis Hamilton landed the first 1:37 lap time. Webber immediately went faster.

The McLarens and Red Bulls have dominated the front row all year, and it looks like that will continue. Watching these teams play strategy against each other is really quite awesome. It goes to show you just how much difference there is in .035 seconds.

A lot of the drivers in qualifying are running the Bridgestone super-soft tyres.

10 - Petrov (Renault)

9 - Barrichello (Williams)

8 - Hulkenberg (Williams)

7 - Button (McLaren)

6 - Kubica (Renault)

5 - Massa (Ferrari)

4 - Alonso (Ferrari)

3 - Hamilton (McLaren)

2 - Webber (Red Bull)

1 - Vettel (Red Bull)

Sebastian Vettel returns to pole for the first time in five races. Lewis Hamilton's last lap in Q3 was aborted after a brief slip caused him to lose momentum.

Barrichello and Hulkenberg, both Williams drivers, put in even times, but Hulkenberg was granted position by virtue of putting in his time first.

As the drivers pulled into the pits and the top three qualifiers went to the press room, it was awkward that Webber would not even acknowledge Vettel. Obviously there is still some animosity from the Turkish Grand Prix.

CONTROVERSY BREWING

Red Bull is crying foul, saying that Ferrari circumvented the in-season testing ban by having Fernando Alson turn several laps in the F10 at the Fiorano circuit. Ferrari, though, says the event was a media day, and that no test data was recovered.

PREDICTIONS

Valencia is a circuit that rewards patience, something that Lewis Hamilton doesn't often have. But Lewis also claims to have "unfinished business" at the street circuit.

So, the predicted podium is this:

3. Fernando Alonso

2. Mark Webber

1. Lewis Hamilton

Recapping the F1 Prediction from March

Driver's Champion: Lewis Hamilton

He'll rebound in a big way, especially when we get to the European part of the calendar.

Constructor's Champion: Ferrari

Those red cars are fast.

Most wins on the season: Fernando Alonso

I'm thinking he'll win five races, while Hamilton will eventually win four.

First Driver to be Replaced: Karun Chandhok, HRT

I'm think that Jose Maria Lopez or Sebastian Bourdais may find their way into the race seat opposite Bruno Senna.

Will Bernie go away at season's end?

No. Unfortunately no.

Who will fill the race slot vacated by the defunct USF1?

Most likely Stefan GP. I can't see Epsilon Eusakdi, or Prodrive moving in.

Alright, so that's what we said in March of this year, after only one race. We're now eight races in and things have certainly changed. So let's view the new and updated predictions for the 7/16 mark of the season...

Driver's Champion: Lewis Hamilton

He'll rebound in a big way, especially when we get to the European part of the calendar. Remember us saying that earlier and back in March. Well, Lewis has taken two of the first three European races. Valencia at the end of the month looks good for McLaren as well.

Constructor's Champion: Vodafone McLaren Mercedes

While Ferrari was our original pick, it looks as though those red cars aren't as good as we thought. Yes, Alonso is reaching the podium, but with nowhere near the consistency that Button and Hamilton are reaching it.

Most wins on the season: Lewis Hamilton

Lewis is already halfway to what I predicted he'd win, and we aren't even to the midpoint of the season. I'm starting to think Lewis may take home five or six wins.

First Driver to be Replaced: Karun Chandhok, HRT

I'm think that Jose Maria Lopez or Sebastian Bourdais may find their way into the race seat opposite Bruno Senna. That was our original pick and we're sticking with it. Chandhok, even in one of the new backmarker cars, is consistently running upwards of 4 to 7 seconds of the leader's pace. In F1, he might as well be walking as going that slow.

Will Bernie go away at season's end?

No. Unfortunately no. In fact, I hear he's looking at a vacation home in Austin, Texas.

Who will fill the race slot vacated by the defunct USF1?

Trick question, doesn't look like the FIA is going to let anyone else in.

Post 293: College Football Expansion Revisited

We'll probably revist this topic several times over the next few weeks, and if you notice, we are now within a touchdown of 300 posts.

It appears as though Nebraska is going to the Big Ten, which, in a case of horrifyingly bad math, give the Big Ten twelve teams. If they stop there, then it would seem that the seismic shift that was predicted might be stopped.

But, Notre Dame has once again began conversating with the Big Ten, which could potentially render a thirteen team conference. If that happens, then Missouri is back on the table to create a 14-team Big Ten (at which point the conference name has to change).

While all this has been happening, the PAC-10 screamed out "Screw it!" and now looks poised to offer invites to Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado. The university of Texas, arguably the biggest pawn in this crazy chess game, is nearly 800 miles from the nearest current PAC-10 school, and is a whopping 1300 miles from the Pacific coast. There is no way the conference can keep the name PAC, it just doesn't work.

And then, just to keep the soap opera going, Texas A&M is supposedly in hot and heavy talks with the SEC, which is by far the better fit for them than the PAC-10. That would put the Aggies 925 miles away from their farthest in-conference competition.

Stay tuned, kids. This is getting fun.

***Formula 1 Update***

We haven't done this in a while, but it is time for a Formula 1 update.

The fast cars journey to Montreal this week. This will be the first time I've seen them race at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. The last time they were at this particular track Lewis Hamilton decided that he wanted to be parked where Kimi Raikkonen was parked, so he just pushed him out of the way... er, well, he plowed into him.

Now is different. The Red Bulls, so dominant this year in qualifying, have fallen victim to several reliability issues, and just plain driver stupidity. At Turkey, with Webber leading and Vettel following, the younger driver decided he was tired on P2 and wanted P1. The resulting kerfuffle cost Vettel a race finish and dropped Webber to P3, giving Hamilton a win and Button P2, a McLaren 1-2.

I emailed Tom Bowles at Sports Illustrated with a comment. And darned if he didn't put it up in his new mailbag article.

Post 292: College Football Expansion

There's been a lot of talk lately about the possibility of the biggest conferences in college football expanding. The Big Ten (which already has 11 teams) was the primary suspect to get the ball rolling, so to speak. There are three scenarios being bandied about by the talking heads:

Scenario 1: The Big Ten adds 1 team, making 12. The four possible teams being talked about are Notre Dame, Missouri, Nebraska, or Rutgers. I pitched the idea several years ago that the Big Ten needed to push for another team (Notre Dame) and split into the Hayes and Schembechler Divisions.

Scenario 2: The Big Ten adds three teams, creating two 7-team divisions. Take three of the four teams listed above to create this scenario.

Scenario 3: This scenario would unleash nuclear war on the college football landscape. The Big Ten would add five teams, creating a 16-team superconference. You would see Missouri, Nebraska, Rutgers, Syracuse, and then a mystery team (rumors state Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Pitt, West Virginia, etc.)

Should scenario three come to pass, then watch for the response of the PAC-10 and the SEC. In conversation with several friends and co-workers, it is an understood fact that if the Big Ten goes to 16 teams, then the SEC will respond, and respond BIG. Should the SEC require four more teams, then it become interesting.

The SEC could look west, trying to lure Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and OK State into the fold. They could play for Texas, Texas A&M, and then go east and north, claiming Virginia Tech and possibly Florida State, Miami, or South Florida.

Personally, I think VaTech's defense style is better suited to the SEC than to the ACC.

The PAC-10 is already talking to Colorado, if reports are to be believed. I can see CU going to the PAC-10. I can also see the conference that is home to USC calling up Boise State. That would give them 12 teams, enough for a conference title game.

So, if Scenario 3 happens, this is how we here at the Right Wing think college football will look.

Big Ten (Becomes Big 16) (adds 5 teams)

Hayes Division

Ohio State

Missouri

Nebraska

Michigan State

Minnesota

Iowa

Indiana

Northwestern

Schembechler Division

Michigan

Penn State

Notre Dame

Rutgers

Syracuse

Wisconsin

Purdue

Illinois

The Big Ten starts this apocalyptic domino effect by gutting the Big East, adding Syracuse and Rutgers. The Big XII loses Nebraska and Missouri. Independent Notre Dame realizes that their reasons for staying independent are, at this point in time, archaic at best.

PAC-10 (Becomes PAC-16) (Adds 6 teams)

North Division

Washington

Washington State

Oregon

Oregon State

Boise State

Colorado

Utah

South Division

USC

Cal

Stanford

UCLA

Arizona

Arizona State

Texas Christian

BYU

Our vision of the future for the PAC-10 see TCU, Utah, and BYU joining from the Mountain West, and Boise State joining from the WAC.

Southeastern Conference (Adds 4 teams)

East Division

Georgia

Florida

South Carolina

Tennessee

Kentucky

Vanderbilt

Virginia Tech

Auburn (moves to East)

West Division

Alabama

LSU

Arkansas

Mississippi State

Ole Miss

Texas

Texas A&M

Oklahoma

As you can see, we take three of the four Big XII teams and add them to the SEC West, moving Auburn to the East Division, which adds Virginia Tech.

So we've seen the Big XII and the Big East effectively gutted. The ACC loses a powerhouse in VaTech. So what do these conferences do?

Atlantic Coast Conference (adds five teams, loses VT)

Atlantic Division

Clemson

Boston College

Maryland

Florida State

Wake Forest

NC State

UConn

West Virginia

Coastal Division

Georgia Tech

Miami

North Carolina

Duke

Virginia

Louisville

Cincinnati

South Florida

Note that we foresee the ACC completing the destruction of the Big East. The ACC will strive to not be left out of the superconference discussion.

Big XII (loses 6 teams) (adds 6 teams)

South Division

Oklahoma State

Baylor

Texas Tech

UNLV

Fresno State

Houston

North Division

Kansas

Kansas State

Iowa State

Air Force

Wyoming

Colorado State

The remnants of the Big XII reconstitue the conference by raiding the Mountain West, taking Air Force, Wyoming, UNLV, and Colorado State. They also tackle the WAC, gaining Fresno State. The final spot falls to Houston of Conference USA.

Should this nuclear scenario happen, the conference rankings, as we see them, look like this:

1. SEC

2. Big Ten (Big 16)

3. PAC-16

4. ACC

5. Big XII