F1 2015 Preview: Malaysian Grand Prix

Let's be honest...the Australian Grand Prix was a bit of a bore. Only fifteen cars ran, and by the end they barely had enough of a grid to fill out the points paying positions. Jenson Button piloted his McLaren-Honda to an 11th place finish, but the team was happy to see the car finish. Sauber's Felipe Nasr finished 5th; a better finish than Sauber scored throughout the entire 2014 season.

Now, though, it's time to go racing in Malaysia.

While the weather was nice and comfy in Melbourne, Sepang promises to be a different story. Temps are expected to top out between 90° and 95° F on Saturday and Sunday. Humidity will be through the roof. Rain is essentially guaranteed. Cars are going to overheat. The track conditions will vary depending on the precipitation. In short, it will be one of the most trying races of the season.


Woes of McLaren-Honda

Jenson Button very nearly scored points in the maiden outing of the new McLaren-Honda partnership. But the team was happier that he finished. It's going to be a rough, long year for McLaren. The outfit is accustomed to winning, and their current design is not conducive to victory at the moment. The car struggled with overheating in the upper 60s in Melbourne. Sepang is set for 90°-plus temps and rain. Personally, I think McLaren will struggle to even finish this weekend, even with Fernando Alonso finally returning to the grid.

Horner says Equalization; Hamilton Laughs in his Face

Mercedes AMG Petronas is, hands down, the most dominant outfit on the grid right now. They are leaving everyone in their wake. Ferrari and Williams are their closest competitors, and frankly Mercedes just out-classes them at every turn. Kimi Raikkonen seems to have found some speed for Ferrari, but Hamilton and Rosberg remain out of reach over race distance.

Red Bull Renault's team boss Christian Horner has come out in favor of some sort of equalization method to bring Mercedes back to the field. Regardless your feelings on the matter, Mercedes driver, and defending World Driver's Champion, Lewis Hamilton fired back at Horner, saying that it's funny how Horner was not in favor of equalization when it was Red Bull running away from the field, but the moment someone other than Red Bull dominates, Horner thinks they should be punished.

Sepang International Circuit

Here is a breakdown of the Sepang circuit I wrote in April 2010:

The start finish line gives way to a quick right-left-downhill bit. A sweeping right-hander going back uphill leads into a a sharp right-hander. Too much speed going into this turn will definitely send you off.

This sharp right gives way to a gradual left-to-right S-curve that, if taken properly, can almost be run flat-out. Beyond this S-curve is a quick succession of right-handers that are nearly 90-degree turns, but are shallow enough to be taken with some speed. The second of these right-handers leads downhill to a very sharp, very slow left-hander that begins taking the cars back up-hill.

A semi-gradual run through turn 10 leads to a sharp turn 11. Another pseudo-S-curve (turns 12 and 13), bring the cars to a sharp sharp sharp right-hander, leading onto the long straight.

At the end of this straight is turn 15, the hairpin, that brings the cars back around to the start-finish line. 

Race Predictions

The second race of the saeson is almost as tricky to predict as the first race of the season. There are still mechanical complications to be sorted. Just ask McLaren-Honda how that's working out.

It's still not exactly going to be a shock for Mercedes to walk away with this race, likely with a 1-2 finish (and probably with a 1-2 start). While it is still too early to really talk about pecking order, Mercedes is the team to beat this year. They've already claimed a commanding lead in the Constructor's Championship, and a 1-2 finish at Sepang will further that gap.

The weather is going to play a huge roll in the race. I'm looking for several teams to drop out entirely, and many single cars to not finish.

Podium Prediction
I nailed the top two spots on the podium at Australia, but the conditions and the practice runs at Sepang have changed my mind for this race. I still think Lewis Hamilton wins, and I still think Nico Rosberg comes in second. But I think Kimi Raikkonen has found the magic formula for this weekend and will grab the final podium step.

It think we're looking at a podium of:

1st: Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes AMG Petronas

2nd: Nico Rosberg, Mercedes AMG Petronas

3rd: Kimi Raikkonen, Scuderia Ferrari

F1 2015 Preview: Australian Grand Prix

The Formula 1 season finally swings into high gear this weekend. The cars have been unveiled. The driver lineups have been confirmed. The preseason testing sessions have wrapped up.

It's time to go racing.

The first race of the season takes place at the Albert Park Circuit. As evidenced in the video, the track is a rather fun blast around Albert Park Lake in central Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

It is late summer in Australia, and the current weather forecast calls for temperatures near 90°F for qualifying on Saturday (2:00am EDT) but much cooler for the actual race on Sunday, with a high of 68°F. That should sufficiently effect track conditions, especially with overnight rain in the forecast.

The week leading up to the grand prix has been exciting.

Sauber, Giedo van der Garde, and the Courts

Sauber was hit with a lawsuit from former driver Giedo van der Garde over a race seat and, effectively, lost wages. The Dutch driver was signed to a Sauber race seat, along with Adrian Sutil, last season, but both men were kicked aside in favor of Marcus Ericsson and Felipe Nasr, who provided better sponsorship money. Sutil faded into F1 obscurity, but van der Garde decided to fight. Especially since he lost his race seat after every other team had decided their lineups. That means this is a lost season for him and his sponsors.

So van der Garde launched a court case demanding that he be allowed to race this weekend. Sauber said no, as it would not be safe. The current Sauber cars were designed for Ericsson and Nasr, not for van der Garde. The courts, though, agreed with the Dutch driver, saying Sauber should provide him a race seat for the grand prix. Sauber is now refusing to recognize van der Garde as a nominated driver, meaning the Dutchman cannot obtain an FIA super-license in order to race in F1.

This case will get uglier before it gets settled.

McLaren-Honda Growing Pains

It's not like Honda has been away from the sport for a long time. Just a few years, actually...but much has changed. As such, the new partnership between McLaren and Honda has been off to a slow start.

The team failed to put in anywhere close tot he number of laps their competitors were churning out in testing. Then Fernando Alonso suffered a massive crash (that is still under investigation) and has been medically ruled out of the Australian Grand Prix.

Perhaps McLaren-Honda will gather momentum as the season progresses. But right now I'm thinking the bottom third of the points-paying positions is probably the best Button and Magnussen/Alonso can honestly hope for.

Race Predictions

The first race of the season is always tricky. Everyone is still working out reliability issues. Unforeseen technical complications are bound to ruin someone's race. A surprise or two is never out of the question.

That said, it's not exactly going to be a shock for Mercedes to walk away with this race, likely with a 1-2 finish (and probably with a 1-2 start). It is entirely too early in the season to start talking about the pecking order, but like last year, it is obvious to everyone involved that Mercedes outclasses the field right now.

So which constructor claims a stake on the #2 slot? Personally, I think Red Bull is taking a step back this year. McLaren is not yet ready. Ferrari is lagging, even with a total of five World Driver's Championships piloting the ponies. No, this year belongs to a classic team that spent last season completing the long hard trudge up the mountain back to excellence.

Williams. I'm looking for Williams-Martini Racing to have a great season, and for that season to start right in Melbourne.

Podium Prediction

When all is said and done, after the smoke has finally cleared, after whatever other cliche has run its course, who will stand on the podium in Melbourne?

It think we're looking at a podium of:

1st: Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes AMG Petronas

2nd: Nico Rosberg, Mercedes AMG Petronas

3rd: Valtteri Bottas, Williams Martini Racing

Formula 1 Preview: Season 2015

The first test of the preseason is complete, the teams have departed from Jerez, and, for the most part, every contender for the 2015 season has been unveiled (Caterham hasn't yet, Manor/Marussia is still struggling to make the grid, and Force India is fighting to reveal their contender). This post will cover the various cars so far released, and I'll give you my predictions at the end.

The Cars

First up on the list is the Mercedes AMG Petronas W06 Hybrid. Mercedes doesn't mess around with their livery, holding true to the nickname "Silver Arrows." Lewis Hamilton piloted the W05 to last year's World Driver's Championship, and his teammate, Nico Rosberg, came in second. The car was extremely reliable, save for an outing in Montreal that drove every Mercedes fan crazy.

The car this year is a beauty. The paint scheme is only slightly different from last year, but the design is changed, albeit slightly. The nose dips a bit sharper, and tapers differently than last year's version. Given the reliability and long-running stints the W06 pulled off at Jerez, it looks like the Silver Arrows are the team to beat once again.


Last year's second place team, Red Bull Renault, unveiled the RB11 with an interim testing livery that, for all intents and purposes, was designed to disguise the innovations RBR has made in terms of aerodynamics. Personally, I kind of like the black and white scheme. Since this is a testing livery, don't be surprised if they go back to the drab, only-slightly-different-from-Toro-Rosso livery for the actual season.

Daniel Ricciardo will likely contend for the World Driver's Championship this year, if the Renault power plant can gain ground on Mercedes. New Red Bull teammate Daniil Kyvat will get a taste of life at the top of the ladder.


Our third contender this season is the Williams Martini F1 team, and their FW37. Last year Williams was a pleasant surprise, climbing from 9th in the Constructor's Standings in 2013 to 3rd last season. On several occasions the Williams outfit fought for the win, especially in Austria.

Felipe Massa returned to form last year, for the first time since his tragic accident in July 2009. Teammate Valtteri Bottas is a World Driver's Champion in the making. So long as Williams has this driver pairing, they will be a threat to win any grand prix this season.

Ferrari's contender for the 2015 season, the SF15-T, looks like it might suck, as evidenced in the picture on the right. The vacuum-cleaner nose will certainly help to keep the track clear of any debris. Granted, the driver's seat is not the most comfortable, but the prevailing thought is that Vettel should be able to win at least one race in 2015.

Alright, joking aside, the SF15-T, the real one, is actually a pretty decent looking car. The livery contains more black  than is customary for the Scuderia, but it helps. Ever since Ferrari lost the ability to put the bar code on their car, as that somehow advertised for Marlboro, the Maranello outfit has struggled to create a good livery. 

Ferrari made one of the biggest driver moves of the season, allowing Fernando Alonso to walk so they could sign 4-Time Driver's Champion Sebastian Vettel. Pairing Vettel with Kimi Raikkonen, at least for this season, gives the Scuderia a strong lineup capable of winning any race.


The newest engine manufacturer, who used to be int he sport until a few years ago, is Honda, and they've teamed with McLaren. The Woking outfit unveiled the McLaren-Honda MP4-30. While the design is sleek, the biggest complaint for almost everyone is the livery. Every publicity photo McLaren released, especially after signing Fernando Alonso, used the old red and white McLaren's of the Ayrton Senna days. Then the MP4-30 was unveiled.

Once more McLaren used the silver color scheme. In fact, the McLaren-Honda contender looks like they just took the livery of Vodafone McLaren and West McLaren and smashed them together. I usually love the McLaren, but this year I'm finding that difficult. If the silver was white, I would like the car a lot more. Having Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button on one team should help them, though.

Next on the list is Sauber, and their C34. I'm not sure I've ever seen such an uninspired car take to the Formula 1 grid, but the C34 does not inspire any sort of confidence. If the livery was a bit more exciting, then maybe I'd be more partial to it. 

The driver line up, likewise, isn't one that screams championship contender. Marcus Ericsson, fresh off the heels of driving for Caterham, joins the Sauber team, driving alongside Felipe Nasr, who brought the Banco do Brasil sponsorship to Sauber.


Lotus takes to the grid this year with the E23, a much more aesthetically appealing contender than their walrus of a car last season. While the livery is much the same, the car looks much better than last year. Lotus swapped engine suppliers from Renault, who was far below competitive in 2014, and became partners with Mercedes, in hopes of much better results.

A driver pairing of Romain Grosjean and Pastor Maldonado gives Lotus some familiarity and continuity. Maldonado brings sponsors, but Grosjean is the better driver.


The final team to be reviewed is Scuderia Toro Rosso. I'm not going to lie, the STR11 is one of my favorite cars unveiled so far. It looks far better than Toro Rosso's contender from last season, which looked an awful lot like Gonzo from the Muppets. The STR11 replaces the muppet nose front with a much better design. The paint scheme is, for all intents and purposes the same as last season, with minor changes thanks to the revised nose.

The driver lineup for the Red Bull B-Team is Carlos Sainz Jr. and Max Verstappen, the youngest driver ever to compete in Formula 1. Verstappen will be only 17 when the season begins.

When Force India, Caterham, and Manor/Marussia release their cars, I'll review them. Now...

Predictions
Which new driver/team combination will prove the most effective on race day?
I really like the idea of Fernando Alonso in a McLaren-Honda, but I think the biggest winner of the driver’s musical chairs game this offseason will be Sebastian Vettel. Ferrari will be stronger than McLaren, meaning Seb will have a better overall season. This is not the second coming of Michael Schumacher, though. 

Will Mercedes’s dominance continue? 
Yes. The preseason test in Jerez proved one thing: Mercedes can run longer than any of their competitors while suffering fewer mechanical issues. This is bad news for Ferrari, Red Bull, and McLaren. 

Who wins the Driver’s Championship this season? 
I honestly think we see a repeat of 2014. Lewis Hamilton finally has the dominant car under him that he always sought at McLaren. Giving him a contender as strong as the W05 last year, and what we’ve seen of the W06 this year, means the Brit is likely on his way to his second straight, and third overall, World Driver’s Championship. 

Okay, so we know who you think will win the Driver’s Title, but what about the Constructor’s Championship? It’s gotta be Mercedes, right? 
Right. This one is a pretty safe call to make. Mercedes just has it all figured out right now. While their competitors are rushing to swap drivers, and hiring away engineers from one another, the Brackley outfit is quietly building a Formula 1 dynasty. 

Who will be the first driver to be replaced? 
Tough question. Last year I pegged McLaren’s Kevin Magnussen to be replaced, and while he has reverted to reserve driver status this year, he finished out the season more impressively than teammate Jenson Button. This season, I think either Sauber’s Marcus Ericsson or Toro Rosso’s Carlos Sainz Jr. will be the first to go…assuming anyone is actually booted off the grid during the season. 

Will Fifth Beatle hang it up after this year and let someone else take the reins? 
Every year this question shows up, and every year the answer is the same…Emphatically no. The only way anyone else will oversee Formula 1 is when they pry it from Bernie’s cold, dead fingers. 

Alright, so tell us your pick for the top five finishers in the Driver’s Championship standings. 
Obviously I’ve got Hamilton at the top, and I think Rosberg will be once more come home second. Rounding out the top five will be Williams’s Valtteri Bottas, Red Bull’s Daniel Ricciardo, and Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel. 

How do you think the Constructor’s Title plays out? Give us your top five there. 
Mercedes will, rather easily, sew up a second straight Constructor’s Championship. I look for Williams to come home second in the teams battle though, with Red Bull rounding out the podium. Ferrari and McLaren, with their new Honda power plant, will round out the top five. 

Formula 1: A Mid-season Review

The Summer Break

Half of the Formula 1 season has been run. Now that the Hungarian Grand Prix has wrapped up, the teams are headed home. The factories will close up shop for a mandatory two week break period. Drivers will go on vacation. Team principals will look over the books before stepping out of the office for a while.

When the teams return to action, we’re going to have one heck of a season to close out. And the first race back is at my favorite track: Spa-Francorchamps.

Mercedes Dominance

The Mercedes AMG Petronas factory team is, far and away, the most dominant team in F1 this season. Nico Rosberg currently leads the Driver’s Championship standings by 11 points over teammate Lewis Hamilton. Rosberg has been, undoubtedly, the most consistent driver all year. Only twice in 11 races has he failed to reach the podium, and one of those two times he finished 4th, right behind Hamilton.

Lewis, meanwhile, has finished on the podium in every race since the disaster that was Montreal. He has one win, one second place, and two third places. I argue, however, that those third place finishes are more impressive. In Germany, Hamilton’s brakes exploded, slamming him into the wall during qualifying. He started from the back of the grid and, within 16 laps, was in second place. He finished third. In Hungary, at the outset of Q1, Hamilton’s entire car basically exploded. Back to back qualifying disasters would set anyone on edge. Hamilton started from the pit lane, since his Silver Arrow had to be rebuilt. He began slicing his way through the field and soon found himself running second and involved in a tight battle with Fernando Alonso and Daniel Ricciardo. Lewis finished third. In neither race should he have had a chance, but this shows the dominance of the Mercedes chassis.

The race to open the second “half” of the season, the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francorchamps, is a race Hamilton always runs well. The wide open nature of the track (and the next race at Monza) will greatly benefit the Mercedes team.

A Star Is Born

Red Bull Renault is, for all intents and purposes, “captained” by Sebastian Vettel. He is the four time defend World Driver’s Champion. His team is the four time defending Constructor’s Champion. (And yes, all of those titles will be leaving the Milton Keynes outfit this year, heading most likely to Brackley.) So whenever someone talks about Red Bull Renault, thoughts typically go to Vettel.

But not this year. No, this year Vettel has been outshined at every turn by his teammate, Australian driver Daniel Ricciardo. The younger RBR driver currently has a 43 point advantage over the veteran Vettel. Ricciardo is the only non-Mercedes driver to stand on the top step of the podium this season.

At the Hockenheimring, Ricciardo and double World Champion Fernando Alonso locked horns for an epic multi-lap battle around the neutered circuit (thanks, Tilke). A week later, in the weather-troubled Hungarian Grand Prix, Ricciardo once again found himself in battle with Alonso, only this time he had another World Champion to contend with, as Lewis Hamilton’s epic drive placed him in the scrap for the top spot.

If this had been a year in which one team wasn’t so overly dominant, we’d be speaking of Ricciardo as a Driver’s Championship contender. He’s currently about three race-wins off the lead (Rosberg leads him by 73), but the Mercedes duo is going to be difficult to leapfrog in the standings.

Predictions Revisited

Earlier this year I made a series of predictions about the upcoming season. Now that half the season is gone, let’s look back and see just how right or wrong I’ve been:

Driver’s Championship:

On February 27, I wrote: “…there was one [driver] I kept coming back to. He’s been on the rise the last two seasons, is a proven race winner, and is partnered with a previous Driver’s Champion, so he has a brain to pick when trying to figure things out. His car looks to be one of the best on the grid this year, which can’t hurt. For Driver’s Champion of 2014, I’m picking Nico Rosberg.”

Today, I think: “Yeah, that’s pretty accurate. Lewis is a more aggressive driver than Rosberg, so he’s more prone to mistakes. So long as the reliability issues of Montreal and Silverstone stay away, Rosberg should be champion. He’ll have to fight for it, as Lewis definitely will not go gently into the night, but he should win. Rosberg leads Hamilton 202-191. Ricciardo is in third, with 131.”

Top 5 Driver’s Championship:

On February 27, I wrote: “Obviously I’ve got Rosberg at the top, and I think Hamilton will be highly placed, as well. When it’s all said and done, I think the driver’s top five will look like this: Rosberg, Raikkonen, Hamilton, Vettel, Hulkenberg.”

Today, I think: “Wow, that was a bit off. The current standings are:
1. Rosberg – 202
2. Hamilton – 191
3. Ricciardo – 131
4. Alonso – 115
5. Bottas – 95
Vettel is currently sixth (88) and Hulkenberg is seventh (69). Raikkonen is way down in 12th, with only 27 points.”

Constructor’s Championship:

On February 27, I wrote: “I think Mercedes will double up this year. I’ve pegged Rosberg for the Driver’s Title, and I think Lewis Hamilton will return to form and pick up two or three wins. Silver Arrows wrap up the Constructor’s Title.”

Today, I think: “Again, pretty much spot on. Lewis actually has more wins already than Rosberg (5 to 4), but Rosberg is more consistent. Mercedes currently leads Red Bull 393-219. Ferrari is a distant third with 142.”

Top 5 Constructor’s Championship:

On February 27, I wrote: “As I said earlier, I think the Mercedes factory teams pulls the double this year. But I also think Force India will have a strong year and McLaren will bounce back from the god-awful 2013 campaign. I see the Constructor’s Standings playing out like this: Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, Force India, Red Bull Renault.”

Today, I think: “My pick here is closer than the Driver’s pick. The current standings are:
1. Mercedes - 393
2. Red Bull Renault - 219
3. Ferrari - 142
4. Williams - 135
5. Force India - 98
McLaren is sixth (97) and Toro Rosso is eighth, with 17 points. Sauber and Caterham have zero points between them. Even Marussia has scored, this year, with Bianchi picking up 2 points at Monaco.”

A Most Welcome Surprise

The Williams Martini Racing team has been quite good this year. Sure, Felipe Massa has been caught up in some ugly accidents (Melbourne, Montreal, Hockenheim), but his teammate, Valtteri Bottas, has placed on the podium fairly regularly. I won’t be surprised at all to see Bottas win a race this year. It’s good to see Williams back near the top.

F1 Goes To Azerbaijan

When you read the word “Europe,” what’s the first thing that comes to mind?

The Alps? Sure, they’re beautiful. The rolling hills of Germany and Austria? Yeah, those, too. The winter wonderland that is Scandinavia? Uh-huh. The lake districts of England? The Scottish highlands? Tuscany? The Vatican? Yes, to all.

Azerbaijan?

Wait, what? Huh? Azerbaijan?

That’s right, Azerbaijan. According to F1 Supremo Bernie Ecclestone, Azerbaijan is so distinctly European that, starting in 2016, a street circuit in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku will host the Grand Prix of Europe. According to Azerbaijan’s Minister of Youth and Sport, Azad Rahimov, “Azerbaijan is a modern European country that has established a reputation as a center of sporting excellence. The deal to bring Formula 1 racing to Baku is a very significant new chapter in our ongoing success to attract the world's largest sporting events to our country.”

Baku is located 1000 miles East of the easternmost “European” F1 circuit, Istanbul Park. As for circuits currently on the calendar, the closest European circuit to Baku is the Hungaroring, which is only 1500 miles away, straight-line distance.