F1 2015 Preview: Malaysian Grand Prix

Let's be honest...the Australian Grand Prix was a bit of a bore. Only fifteen cars ran, and by the end they barely had enough of a grid to fill out the points paying positions. Jenson Button piloted his McLaren-Honda to an 11th place finish, but the team was happy to see the car finish. Sauber's Felipe Nasr finished 5th; a better finish than Sauber scored throughout the entire 2014 season.

Now, though, it's time to go racing in Malaysia.

While the weather was nice and comfy in Melbourne, Sepang promises to be a different story. Temps are expected to top out between 90° and 95° F on Saturday and Sunday. Humidity will be through the roof. Rain is essentially guaranteed. Cars are going to overheat. The track conditions will vary depending on the precipitation. In short, it will be one of the most trying races of the season.


Woes of McLaren-Honda

Jenson Button very nearly scored points in the maiden outing of the new McLaren-Honda partnership. But the team was happier that he finished. It's going to be a rough, long year for McLaren. The outfit is accustomed to winning, and their current design is not conducive to victory at the moment. The car struggled with overheating in the upper 60s in Melbourne. Sepang is set for 90°-plus temps and rain. Personally, I think McLaren will struggle to even finish this weekend, even with Fernando Alonso finally returning to the grid.

Horner says Equalization; Hamilton Laughs in his Face

Mercedes AMG Petronas is, hands down, the most dominant outfit on the grid right now. They are leaving everyone in their wake. Ferrari and Williams are their closest competitors, and frankly Mercedes just out-classes them at every turn. Kimi Raikkonen seems to have found some speed for Ferrari, but Hamilton and Rosberg remain out of reach over race distance.

Red Bull Renault's team boss Christian Horner has come out in favor of some sort of equalization method to bring Mercedes back to the field. Regardless your feelings on the matter, Mercedes driver, and defending World Driver's Champion, Lewis Hamilton fired back at Horner, saying that it's funny how Horner was not in favor of equalization when it was Red Bull running away from the field, but the moment someone other than Red Bull dominates, Horner thinks they should be punished.

Sepang International Circuit

Here is a breakdown of the Sepang circuit I wrote in April 2010:

The start finish line gives way to a quick right-left-downhill bit. A sweeping right-hander going back uphill leads into a a sharp right-hander. Too much speed going into this turn will definitely send you off.

This sharp right gives way to a gradual left-to-right S-curve that, if taken properly, can almost be run flat-out. Beyond this S-curve is a quick succession of right-handers that are nearly 90-degree turns, but are shallow enough to be taken with some speed. The second of these right-handers leads downhill to a very sharp, very slow left-hander that begins taking the cars back up-hill.

A semi-gradual run through turn 10 leads to a sharp turn 11. Another pseudo-S-curve (turns 12 and 13), bring the cars to a sharp sharp sharp right-hander, leading onto the long straight.

At the end of this straight is turn 15, the hairpin, that brings the cars back around to the start-finish line. 

Race Predictions

The second race of the saeson is almost as tricky to predict as the first race of the season. There are still mechanical complications to be sorted. Just ask McLaren-Honda how that's working out.

It's still not exactly going to be a shock for Mercedes to walk away with this race, likely with a 1-2 finish (and probably with a 1-2 start). While it is still too early to really talk about pecking order, Mercedes is the team to beat this year. They've already claimed a commanding lead in the Constructor's Championship, and a 1-2 finish at Sepang will further that gap.

The weather is going to play a huge roll in the race. I'm looking for several teams to drop out entirely, and many single cars to not finish.

Podium Prediction
I nailed the top two spots on the podium at Australia, but the conditions and the practice runs at Sepang have changed my mind for this race. I still think Lewis Hamilton wins, and I still think Nico Rosberg comes in second. But I think Kimi Raikkonen has found the magic formula for this weekend and will grab the final podium step.

It think we're looking at a podium of:

1st: Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes AMG Petronas

2nd: Nico Rosberg, Mercedes AMG Petronas

3rd: Kimi Raikkonen, Scuderia Ferrari