Football Future-see 2014: Week Fourteen

Record
Week 1	8-2
Week 2	5-0
Week 3	2-3
Week 4	4-1
Week 5	2-3
Week 6	2-8
Week 7	4-1
Week 8	3-2
Week 9	2-3
Week 10	2-3
Week 11	4-6
Week 12	3-2
Week 13	3-2
Week 14	5-5
Total	49-41	0.544

The season is rumbling toward the end, and so far it looks like Alabama, Florida State, and Oregon are locks for the playoff. Right now, Mississippi State is also considered part of the top four by the playoff committee, meaning we would have FSU vs Oregon in the Rose Bowl and Alabama vs Mississippi State in the Sugar Bowl. But the chaos situation is still in play. It’s entirely possible that anyone in the group of four listed above, plus Georgia, UCLA, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Arizona, or Arizona State could make the playoff. Granted, some teams, like Georgia, need help from other teams. But as we saw in 2012, chaos can still ensue.

The Games:

LSU at Texas A&M (Thursday, 7:30pm, ESPN)

Talk about a match-up of underwhelming proportions. Both LSU and TAMU have fallen off the map after hot starts. Neither team is playing for a major bowl game berth, so this is a lot of pride on the line. It’s difficult to go into College Station and leave with a W, so watch how the Aggie defense prepares for LSU. Arkansas proved that the Tigers can be shut down completely, so the Aggies may try to duplicate their success. I’m not really given to either of these teams, but I think home field counts for enough to get the Aggies over the hump. TAMU wins a close game.

Final Score: TAMU 24, LSU 21
INCORRECT: LSU won 23-17

5 TCU at Texas (Thursday, 7:30pm, Fox Sports1)

Alright, TCU, this has trap game written all over it. A Thanksgiving night game in Austin. Another chance to state your case for the selection committee. And a Texas team hungry for a win over someone highly ranked. If TCU isn’t careful they could find themselves on the losing side of a playoff rattling upset. But I don’t think that happens. The Horned Frogs are simply too deep and too well coached to allow the Longhorns to get the jump on them. TCU wins going away.

Final Score: TCU 40, Texas 20
CORRECT: TCU won 48-10

13 Arizona State at 11 Arizona (Friday, 3:30pm, Fox)

Arizona State, I have thought all year, was better than Arizona. And I think they prove it Friday. The Wildcats basically shot up the rankings off the back of beating Oregon. Arizona State should win this game, but it's possible Arizona keeps it closer than most people think. Sun Devils win.

Final Score: Arizona State 31, Arizona 24
INCORRECT: Arizona won 42-35

16 Georgia Tech at 9 Georgia (Saturday, Noon, SEC Network)

Some people are sending a lot of love Georgia Tech’s way in this game, but I don’t see it. Tech has to travel to Athens, where Georgia still has Nick Chubb, who is well-rested and ready. Georgia has Hutson Mason, who, while he may lack the yardage of other QBs, is the most accurate quarterback in the SEC. Georgia has a defense that grows more fierce by the game, especially in the front seven. The Jackets will run the ball, of that there is no doubt. But Georgia has enough defensive speed to contain their attack and win this game for the 13th time in 14 tries. There will be no scoreboard watching in Athens, as Missouri takes on Arkansas on Friday. By kickoff of this game, Georgia will know if they have a date in Atlanta next weekend. Dawgs roll.

Final Score: Georgia 45, Georgia Tech 27
INCORRECT: Georgia Tech won 30-24 in OT

South Carolina at 21 Clemson (Saturday, Noon, ESPN)

Thanks to injury and deflated expectations, several games on the slate have lost their luster. This is one of them. South Carolina was supposed to be a playoff contender, but injuries and a weaker-than-expected defense sent the Gamecocks into a tailspin. Clemson really took off when freshman QB Deshaun Watson took over. Then Watson got hurt and Clemson has crumpled. Other than wounded pride, this game does not mean much in the grand scheme of college football in 2014. This is probably a coin-toss game, but I don’t usually go against the SEC, if I can help it. Gamecocks win.

Final Score: South Carolina 28, Clemson 21
INCORRECT: Clemson won 35-17

4 Mississippi State at 19 Ole Miss (Saturday, 3:30pm, CBS)

The Egg Bowl held a lot more meaning just a month ago, but the sudden downfall of Ole Miss and the continual way Mississippi State hovers in the top four has taken away the shine from this match up. Bulldogs QB Dak Prescott seems to have fallen from the Heisman race. For Ole Miss, the once vaunted Landshark defense has given way to a weaker defense that just gave up 30 to Arkansas. That said, this is a rivalry game, and weird things happen. I'm calling for the upset here, as Ole Miss makes a late field goal to win by 3.

Final Score: Ole Miss 24, Mississippi State 21
CORRECT: Ole Miss won 31-17

Notre Dame at USC (Saturday, 3:30pm, Fox)

A game that typically has national implications doesn't mean a whole lot this year. At worst, this game will hurt the case Florida State is making to reach the playoffs, as the Noles barely escape Notre Dame in Tallahassee. Notre Dame has lost some games it should have won (FSU, Northwestern) and has fallen a long way from that 2012 National Championship Game appearance. I think Notre Dame wins here, but I think it's a close game and the Irish need a late TD to go ahead. Irish win.

Final Score: Notre Dame 27, USC 21
INCORRECT: USC won 49-14

Florida at 3 Florida State (Saturday, 3:30pm, ESPN)

This is the last time we will see Will Muschamp as the head coach of Florida. He resigned a few weeks back, effective the end of the FSU game. For a coach who has been on the hot seat since the start of last season, Muschamp has the chance to throw the entirety of college football into chaos. Defeat Florida State, which is totally doable, and watch the playoff rankings collapse in on themselves. But it is Florida, and even though they beat a flat Georgia team, they’re still lacking something. Jameis Winston, so long as he doesn’t get into further trouble with the law, is apparently free to do whatever he wants at FSU, and he can somehow engineer victories from the jaws of defeat. FSU sneaks by a fired up Florida.

Final Score: Florida State 21, Florida 17
CORRECT: FSU won 24-19

10 Michigan State at Penn State (Saturday, 3:30pm, ABC)

I wanted to put a Big Ten game on the slate, as they’ve been a tad under-represented here on the picks, and normally Michigan-Ohio State would fill that slot, but Michigan is so far down I don’t see them contending too closely with the Buckeyes. So instead, here’s Michigan State, once the hope of the Big Ten, traveling to Happy Valley to face the Nittany Lions. Michigan State is obviously the better team in this game, but Penn State is slowly coming around under former Vanderbilt head coach James Franklin. Sparty rolls.

Final Score: Michigan State 35, Penn State 17
CORRECT: Michigan State won 34-10

15 Auburn at 1 Alabama (Saturday, 7:45pm, ESPN)

If Alabama was smart, and we know Nick Saban is smart, then he had his team studying the game tape of what Georgia did to humiliate Auburn. Alabama is basically as deep at running back as Georgia, deeper at WR than Georgia, and better on defense, so this should be a blowout. But Auburn will definitely be looking for a rebound game. Nick Marshall won’t let the Tigers stay down for long. Still, I don’t think it’s enough. I see ‘Bama rolling in the second half and claiming a spot in the SEC Championship Game.

Final Score: Alabama 34, Auburn 21
CORRECT: Alabama won 55-44

The Right Wing Top Ten

The Associated Press Poll and the Amway Coaches Poll both feature a Preseason version. I even posted a “Preseason Top Ten,” or something to that effect, a while back. I never intended to use that poll as a basis for the Right Wing Top Ten, though.

15. Oklahoma Sooners (last week: NR)

14. Arizona State Sun Devils (last week: 15)

13. Arizona Wildcats (last week: 14)

12. Wisconsin Badgers (last week: 13)

11. Kansas State Wildcats (last week: 11)

10. Marshall Thundering Herd (last week: 10)

Why: This is probably all the love Marshall is going to get. Their schedule simply is too weak.

9. UCLA Bruins (last week: 12)

Why: UCLA smacked USC in the face and then didn’t stop...

8. Georgia Bulldogs (last week: 8)

Why: Georgia beat down their tune-up opponent ahead of a rivalry game with Georgia Tech

7. Ohio State Buckeyes (last week: 7)

Why: So long as Ohio State keeps winning they’ll hold position. Indiana gave them a momentary scare, though.

6. Mississippi State Bulldogs (last week: 6)

Why: Beating Vanderbilt is nothing special this year, so Mississippi State holds its place without movement.

5. TCU Horned Frogs (last week: 5)

Why: TCU remains on the outside looking in of my top four...

4. Baylor Bears (last week: 4)

Why: I know most polls have TCU ahead of Baylor. I happen to place some emphasis on the head-to-head win Baylor has over the Frogs..

3. Oregon Ducks (last week: 3)

Why: Oregon is a playoff-bound team, assuming they survive the Civil War and the PAC-12 title game.

2. Florida State Seminoles (last week: 2)

Why: The only reason I have FSU ahead of Oregon is that pesky 0 in the loss column.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (last week: 1)

Why: Alabama did what they needed to do in their tune-up for the Iron Bowl. Now Auburn is all that stands between the Tide and a berth in Atlanta.

Bowl Projections

It’s the time of year again. Time to unveil some bowl projections. These projections have nothing to do with my previously listed Top Ten.

Sugar Bowl (playoff semifinal): Florida State vs Oregon

Rose Bowl (playoff semifinal): Alabama vs TCU

Cotton Bowl (group of five): Mississippi State vs Baylor

Orange Bowl (group of five): Clemson vs Michigan State

Peach Bowl (group of five): Georgia vs Marshall

Fiesta Bowl (group of five): Ohio State vs Arizona State

Citrus Bowl (ACC/B1G vs SEC): Georgia Tech vs Missouri

Outback Bowl (B1G vs SEC): Nebraska vs Ole Miss