RECORD
Week 1
|
8-2
| |
Week 2
|
4-1
| |
Week 3
|
4-1
| |
Week 4
|
5-0
| |
Week 5
|
5-0
| |
Week 6
|
3-2
| |
Week 7
|
2-3
| |
Week 8
|
1-4
| |
Week 9
|
4-1
| |
Week 10
|
4-1
| |
Week 11
|
4-1
| |
Week 12
|
3-2
| |
Week 13
|
4-1
| |
Week 14
|
7-3
| |
Champ Week
| ||
Bowl Week
| ||
Total
|
58-22
|
.725
|
51-19 on the year. Not too bad going into Week 14, but it could be better. Georgia lost yet another player. Florida lost yet another game. Baylor’s offense never showed up against Oklahoma State. And Oregon inexplicably found itself on the receiving end of a beatdown at the hands of Arizona. All in all, Alabama and Florida State held course. The biggest threat to Alabama is this week’s match up at Auburn. Florida State is nervously awaiting the news on QB Jameis Winston’s sex scandal. Meanwhile, Ohio State is quietly sneaking into the National Championship picture, poised to pounce should either top two team falter.
On to the picks… (All games on Saturday unless otherwise noted. All times Eastern Standard.)
Arkansas at 17 LSU (Friday 2:30pm, CBS).....CORRECT
This is usually a fun game. LSU has been a tad streaky this year, with an on-again-off-again defense, but they’re coming off a win over Johnny Football, which is a momentum builder any way you slice it. Arkansas is finishing out season one under former Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema. A win here would do wonders for the program, but I don’t see it happening. LSU wins going away.
Final Score: LSU 34, Arkansas 14
Oregon State at 13 Oregon (Friday 7:00pm, FoxSports1).....CORRECT
Oregon may want to spray paint the phrase “42-16” on the wall of their locker room. Losing that badly to Arizona is shocking, and the Ducks are crazy if they don’t use it as a moment of soul-searching to determine just what kind of team they are. At the same time, Oregon State is coming up from Corvallis in what may be an ill-timed journey to Eugene for the Civil War. Much hinges on the status of Marcus Mariota, the Oregon QB, who took a knee to the head in the loss to Arizona. If he’s healthy, Oregon State better watch out. Ducks roll.
Final Score: Oregon 38, Oregon State 17
2 Florida State at Florida (12:00pm, ESPN).....CORRECT
The Gators have lost seven straight games. Their streak of bowl game appearances is over. In fact, Florida is coming off a loss to an FCS-opponent: Georgia Southern. So the Gators should be mad. In truth, Florida is so beat up that they likely won’t be able to muster much of anything against a high-octane offense like the Seminoles. The trick to this game is the Jameis Winston’s legal status. If the FSU QB is arrested in what is turning into a rather convoluted sex scandal case, then it might open the door for Florida, but I find that unlikely, given Florida’s injury situation. FSU wins.
Final Score: Florida State 42, Florida 14
3 Ohio State at Michigan (12:00pm, ABC).....CORRECT
The Big House should be rocking for this one, but there is a pretty vast gulf between these two teams. Ohio State is on the verge of their second consecutive undefeated season (ineligible for a bowl last year), and Michigan is just trying not to fall further down the rankings than they already are. The Buckeyes got a reprieve last weekend, as Baylor stumbled in Stillwater. Now the Wolverines host their rivals and the only thing it can gain Michigan is a bit of respect for the season. You can bet the Buckeyes will have one eye on the scoreboard all game long, watching to see what happens to Florida State and Alabama. That distraction will let Michigan keep it close, but the Buckeyes will still win.
Final Score: Ohio State 31, Michigan 24
1 Alabama at 4 Auburn (3:30pm, CBS).....INCORRECT
Arguably the biggest game of the season to date. Auburn has executed an incredible turnaround of fortunes. Alabama head coach Nick Saban is 0-5 when facing Auburn teams that go on to win 9 games or more. Auburn already has 9 wins this season. The Tigers required a miracle play against Georgia to reach that record, but it’s recorded as a win in the record book. This year’s Iron Bowl will feature probably the best two teams the SEC has to offer. Alabama is looking to once more win a National Championship. Auburn is looking for that chance. Right now, ‘Bama has the better shot, as Auburn would possibly need Ohio State or Florida State to lose one of their next two games. It’s possible, though, that the voters would elevate one-loss Auburn over undefeated Ohio State, if Auburn knocks off Alabama. Imagine the outcry from Big Ten country then…still, I think ‘Bama wins a close game.
Final Score: Alabama 30, Auburn 27
Georgia at Georgia Tech(3:30pm, ABC).....CORRECT
Georgia’s season continues to deteriorate, as QB Aaron Murray became the latest in a long line of Dawgs to suffer a knee injury this year. Replacement QB Hutson Mason, though, did a fantastic job guiding the Dawgs the rest of the way in their 59-17 win over Kentucky. That’s the most points Georgia has scored in a game since November 5, 2011. Now they face in-state rival Georgia Tech and Paul Johnson’s “run-run-run-maybe-pass-run” offense. The Dawgs will look to dominate early, stifling the run (don’t look now, but Georgia’s run defense has been one of the brightest spots for their young “D” all season) and forcing the Yellow Jackets to pass, which is definitely not their strong suit. Georgia wins.
Final Score: Georgia 35, Georgia Tech 17
6 Clemson at 10 South Carolina (7:00pm, ESPN2).....CORRECT
The Gamecocks of South Carolina can do nothing about reaching the SEC Championship Game. It’s out of their hands. They need Missouri to stumble against Texas A&M. Since they can do nothing to help or hurt that game, the best thing for Spurrier’s Gamecocks is to take to the field and take care of business against in-state rival Clemson. The Tigers have climbed back into the Top Ten, after being as high as #3 at one time. A devastating loss to Florida State removed Clemson from national title competition, but the Tigers still have their sights set on a BCS bowl. They must first dispatch South Carolina, which is no easy task. The Gamecocks are playing their best football of the year, and with their sights set on Atlanta, they should be able to play free and loose in this game. Clemson is a tough team, but at the end of the day, I like South Carolina to win at home in a close game.
Final Score: South Carolina 28, Clemson 26
25 Notre Dame at 8 Stanford (7:00pm, FOX).....CORRECT
The Fighting Irish have bounced around the polls this year, but we’ve known since the National Championship Game last season that Notre Dame was not as good as advertised. The Irish travel this week, heading out to Palo Alto for a meeting with Stanford on Saturday night. The Cardinal lost to USC recently, and USC lost to Notre Dame earlier this year. By the transitive property, Notre Dame should beat Stanford…don’t hold your breath waiting for it. Stanford’s front seven will confound the Notre Dame offense, and the Irish defense won’t have enough to stop Stanford from pulling away in the second half. Cardinal win.
Final Score: Stanford 32, Notre Dame 20
21 Texas A&M at 5 Missouri (7:45pm, ESPN).....INCORRECT
The Tigers of Missouri need only win and they claim a spot in the SEC Championship game in only their second year in the league. Standing in their way is fellow expansion member Texas A&M, the Flying Johnny Footballs. Missouri has been forced to play every game as though it were a playoff game, basically because they are. Just one conference loss would’ve sent Missouri home and allowed South Carolina into the SEC Championship Game. But Mizzou has so far held up their end of the deal, winning the necessary games, including going on the road to Ole Miss last week. Now, though, they welcome a dangerous team to Columbia. The Aggies are making a final bid to get BCS eligible (which will take some work, but never count out the voters). A win over Missouri, at Missouri, would be huge in that respect. I look for a big game from Johnny Manziel. Aggies score the upset.
Final Score: Texas A&M 31, Missouri 28
22 UCLA at 23 USC (8:00pm, ABC).....INCORRECT
There’s something to be said for rivalry games, in how they bring out the best in certain teams. It’s truly been a rollercoaster year for the Trojans of USC. The Down: Going on the road and getting annihilated at Arizona State, a beating so bad it caused the AD to fire Lane Kiffin before he even got on the plane to go home. The Up: Handing the reins to Ed Orgeron, who took over and turned the team around, even upsetting then-No.5 Stanford. Now people are clamoring for USC to make Orgeron the full-time head coach. UCLA, on the other hand, is 1-3 versus ranked teams this year, beating then-No.23 Nebraska in week two, but since losing to Stanford, Oregon, and Arizona State. The Bruins represent only the second ranked team that USC has played this season (at the time of the game [Notre Dame and Arizona State are now ranked]). The Trojans lost to Arizona State 62-41, leading to the Kiffin Firing Fiasco, and they lost to Notre Dame 14-10. Both games were on the road. This time, USC gets to play a home game against a ranked foe. I expect a close game, back and forth action all evening, but the Trojans have the momentum right now. USC wins.
Final Score: USC 27, UCLA 21
The Right Wing Top Ten (RWT10)
Week Seven of the Right Wing Top Ten. The teams, they go a tumblin’.
In this week: South Carolina, Wisconsin
Out this week: Baylor, Oregon
10. Wisconsin Badgers
I’m higher than most on Wisconsin, but this is a really good football team.
9. South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina is playing good football at the right time. A Saturday date with Clemson looms large.
8. Michigan State Spartans
Sparty claimed a berth in the Big Ten Championship, and now can look forward to meeting Ohio State for the conference title.
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State smothered Baylor, holding the Bears to season-lows in many offensive categories.
6. Clemson Tigers
Clemson crushed Citadel in a tune-up game for the battle with South Carolina for state supremacy.
5. Auburn Tigers
The Iron Bowl takes on great significance, as the winner will play for the SEC Championship.
4. Missouri Tigers
Missouri won at Ole Miss, and now needs only win at home against the Aggies to claim the SEC East’s spot in the SEC Championship Game.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes
Alright, fine, I’ll move Ohio State to third. Jeez, Baylor, you had one job...
2. Florida State Seminoles
The annual Florida-Florida State game is upon us, but let’s be honest…does anyone think Florida has a chance? Much depends on the Jameis Winston situation.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Basically, all that stands between Alabama and a BCS National Championship Game berth is Auburn.
If the Playoff began today…
This is how I see the playoff shaping up, if it were to start today. Please note this does not necessarily reflect the RWT10 or the BCS Standings. This is how I think the committee would select. For the first time, I think a single conference gets two teams in. For the SEC haters, at least one of them would be eliminated after the semifinals.
#1
|
Alabama
|
vs
|
#4
|
Auburn
|
#2
|
Florida State
|
vs
|
#3
|
Ohio State
|
Bowl Projections
Here’s how I envision the bowl picture shaking out. Several changes this week, as losses (both of games and of players) ripple across the landscape.
Chick-fil-A Bowl: LSU vs Miami
LSU may end up being the fourth SEC West team chosen for a bowl game. Imagine that. The Tigers coming to Atlanta is usually good for business. Matching them with a bit of a hobbled team in Miami would provide an interesting game.
Capital One Bowl: South Carolina vs Michigan State
South Carolina just hung 70 on an inferior opponent. They could still reach the SEC Championship Game. Michigan State is already playing for the Big Ten Title. I think a match-up of these two teams would provide a great game.
Gator Bowl: Michigan vs Georgia
Georgia just lost star QB Aaron Murray to a torn ACL (who hasn’t torn their ACL for the Dawgs this year?), but I think they still end up in the Gator. Georgia and Michigan haven’t played since 1965…sounds like a good time to meet again.
Outback Bowl: Ole Miss vs Minnesota
Ole Miss is playing slightly ahead of schedule, I think, but it should be enough for a berth in the Outback. Minnesota has been the pleasant surprise of the Big Ten (or B1G, or Big 14, or whatever they’re doing now…)
Cotton Bowl: Texas vs Auburn
Texas would bring the fans to the Cotton Bowl. Auburn will bring the fans, as well. Let’s play this one.
Orange Bowl: Clemson (BCS at-large) vs Wisconsin (BCS at-large)
Clemson now slots into the Orange Bowl with FSU gone to the Title Game. The Orange Bowl has first crack at the at-large teams this year, and will likely lock down Wisconsin. The Badgers are playing great football and seeing them against Clemson would be a fantastic way to start the new year.
Rose Bowl: Ohio State (Big Ten Champ) vs Stanford (PAC-12 Champ)
In the Tradition-Is-The-Only-Thing-
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State (Big XII Champ) vs Northern Illinois (BCS at-large)
Oklahoma State will play in the Fiesta, as beating Baylor hands them the Big XII Title. Northern Illinois has jumped Fresno State in the BCS standings, so slotting them in here makes a degree of sense.
Sugar Bowl: Texas A&M (BCS at-large) vs UCF (AAC Champ)
I still think the Sugar Bowl would love to have Johnny Manziel’s last collegiate game. The trick is, the Sugar likely gets stuck with the AAC Champion, Central Florida. (This assumes the voters pick A&M high enough to grant them BCS eligibility.)
BCS National Championship Game: Alabama (BCS #1 / SEC Champ) vs Florida State (BCS #2 / ACC Champ)
The Crimson Tide and the Seminoles appear to be on a collision course for the National Championship Game.
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