RECORD
Week 1
|
8-2
| |
Week 2
|
4-1
| |
Week 3
|
4-1
| |
Week 4
|
5-0
| |
Week 5
|
5-0
| |
Week 6
|
3-2
| |
Week 7
|
2-3
| |
Week 8
|
1-4
| |
Week 9
|
4-1
| |
Week 10
|
4-1
| |
Week 11
|
4-1
| |
Week 12
| ||
Week 13
| ||
Week 14
| ||
Total
|
44-16
|
.733
|
Looks as though I’m back to my winning ways, with back-to-back 4-1 weeks. But things get tougher from here. We’ve got two SEC conference games, an SEC nonconference game, a PAC12 conference game, and a Big XII conference game. Thursday night features two games with incredible bearing on the BCS title picture. Just imagine if we already had the playoff…Thursday would possibly serve as play-in games…
On the edge of the BCS National Title picture is a small school from Waco, Texas: Baylor. Baylor, like pretty much anyone not named Alabama, Oregon or Florida State, is definitely on the outside looking in when it comes to National Championship hopes. Here’s how I think it would have to go down for Baylor to get in. First, the Bears have to win out. Even one loss, no matter how closely contested, will eliminate them. Then Oregon has to lose to Stanford Thursday night. Ohio State has to trip up, preferably against Michigan. That leaves us with Alabama, FSU, and Baylor still alive. Alabama has three prime opportunities to drop a game (LSU this weekend, Auburn at season’s end, or the SEC Title Game, likely against Missouri). Florida State has a road trip to Wake Forest this week (and Wake is playing teams tough, just ask Miami) but their most likely losses are Florida, or a probably ACC Title Game rematch with Miami. If either the ‘Noles or the Tide lose, that gives us a BCS National Championship Game of Baylor versus Alabama/Florida State. Don’t laugh, stranger things have happened.
10 Oklahoma at 6 Baylor (Thursday 7:30pm, FoxSports1).....CORRECT
Call me crazy, but I believe in Baylor at the moment. The Bears offense is a thing of beauty, if you like high-scoring. They average close to 64 points per game and, outside a ten-point victory on the road at K-State, their closest margin of victory is 31. The next five games will tell us what we need to know, though (vs Oklahoma, vs Texas Tech, at Oklahoma State, at TCU, vs Texas). Oklahoma’s lone loss is a 16-point loss to Texas. You can double OU’s average score and still not catch Baylor’s average score. Being at home is big for Baylor, too. I think the Bears pull one out, but it’ll be close, and Oklahoma won’t go down without a fight.
Final Score: Baylor 45, Oklahoma 38
3 Oregon at 5 Stanford (Thursday 9:00pm, ESPN).....INCORRECT
The second of two massive kick-off games Thursday night sees #2.5 Oregon (average of position in the last few BCS polls) take on #5 Stanford in Palo Alto. The Ducks have a more impressive run of games coming up than Florida State, so if ever there was a time for Oregon to put distance between them and the Seminoles, this is it. And frankly, while I expect a close game, I don’t really look for Oregon to lose this season. PAC-12 officiating is screwy enough to keep the Ducks undefeated, even at the cost of Stanford. Oregon wins, but the Cardinal give them almost all they can handle.
Final Score: Oregon 31, Stanford 26
Appalachian State at Georgia (12:30pm, ESPN3).....CORRECT
Georgia will never be fully healthy this season. Too many season-ending injuries have happened. But RB Todd Gurley returned last week against Florida and within six minutes of kickoff had scored two touchdowns. The Dawgs won their third straight over the rival Gators. That means that, next year, the Gators will have four-year Seniors who will have *never* beaten Georgia. Meanwhile, the Dawgs move on to the lone FCS opponent on their schedule: Appalachian State. This is not, however, the same App State team that went into the Big House in Ann Arbor a few years ago and knocked off Michigan. Aaron Murray should set the SEC mark for Passing TDs in this game, probably in the first quarter (he needs 1 to tie, 2 to break). I don’t look for the Senior QB to play much in the second half.
Final Score: Georgia 35, Appalachian State 10
9 Auburn at Tennessee (12:00pm, ESPN).....CORRECT
Why this game instead of any other ranked vs unranked? Simple. Because Tennessee plays really good football at home. Don’t believe me? Then call up Georgia and ask them. The Vols will bring a big test to the field for Auburn, but these Tigers are legit. The biggest problem for Auburn is to not get caught looking ahead to Georgia and Alabama, two of its biggest rivals still awaiting them this month. I think Auburn wins, but UT should keep it close for the first half.
Final Score: Auburn 31, Tennessee 17
13 LSU at 1 Alabama (8:00pm, CBS).....CORRECT
It seems like we mark down the LSU-Alabama game every year, because every year it seems to hold some sway over the National Championship picture. This year is no different. Because of the injuries and cannibalization occurring in the SEC, Alabama absolutely has to win out. The Tide cannot trust the chaos of last year to ensue once more. LSU comes in having lost to Georgia and Ole Miss, but still boating one of the best offenses in the SEC. This is usually a low-scoring game, but offense is up in the conference this season. Look for LSU QB Zach Mettenberger to make lots of plays, but in the end, Alabama wins a close one and keeps alive their #1 ranking.
Final Score: Alabama 30, LSU 24
The Right Wing Top Ten (RWT10)
Week Five of the Right Wing Top Ten. Some shifting about has lead to a change at the sharp end of the rankings.
In this week: Oklahoma State
Out this week: Miami
10. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Dominating Texas Tech lands Oklahoma State a spot in the vaunted RWT10.
9. Auburn Tigers
Auburn holds steady in the rankings.
8. Missouri Tigers
I told you Missouri would jump back in front of Auburn.
7. Clemson Tigers
Clemson dominated a rather hapless Viringia squad. They get a week off to prepare for Georgia Tech, but a clash with SEC-rival South Carolina still looms at season’s end.
6. Stanford Cardinal
Stanford has the chance to make their case for PAC-12 supremacy when they host Oregon Thursday night.
5. Baylor Bears
I Baylor got to play Oregon or even Florida State, I’m thinking the over/under on the game would be about 160.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes
I cannot stress loudly enough how much I still don’t like having Ohio State this high.
3. Oregon Ducks
An off-week gave Florida State the chance to jump Oregon. If the Ducks win big Thursday, they probably return to #2.
2. Florida State Seminoles
FSU crushed Miami, as predicted, and now enjoys the #2 spot in the nation.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama’s biggest test comes this weekend, when they welcome in the Mad Hatters of Louisiana State.
If the Playoff began today…
This is how I see the playoff shaping up, if it were to start today. If Baylor beats Oklahoma on Thursday, then I could see an argument in which the Bears get in, and Oregon’s slot goes to the winner of the Oregon/Stanford game Thursday will decide a lot about the BCS, but if we had the Playoff this year, Thursday would be even more important.
#1
|
Alabama
|
vs
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#4
|
Ohio State
|
#2
|
Florida State
|
vs
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#3
|
Oregon
|
Bowl Projections
Here’s how I envision the bowl picture shaking out. These bowl projections account mainly for the BCS and mostly bowls associated with the SEC. The bowls mostly hold steady, especially for the BCS. The lower-tier bowls see some changes, though.
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Texas A&M vs Miami
Admit it, you would like to see this game…we all would. The chance to watch the Flying Johnny Footballs run roughshod over the ‘Canes…bring it on.
Capital One Bowl: LSU vs Michigan State
I would love to see Zach Mettenberger take on the Sparty defense that just shut down Michigan. This would be one of those 13-10 smashmouth hardnose football games of yesteryear…and a great way to spend New Year’s Day.
Gator Bowl: Michigan vs Ole Miss
By virtue of losing to Michigan State, the Wolverines drop from the Outback Bowl to the Gator Bowl. Hugh Freeze’s Ole Miss squad is getting better, and they’re recruiting has been phenomenal. This would be a good game.
Outback Bowl: Georgia vs Minnesota
Minnesota is playing rather good football and Georgia, while injury-riddled, is putting forth a valiant effort. If Georgia wins out, or only drops one more game, then an Outback Bowl berth is more than possible.
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs Auburn
The Sooners and the Tigers in the Cotton Bowl? Yes, please.
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC Champ) vs Central Florida (AAC Champ)
Florida State once again gets a BCS bowl, and once again gets a team that it should easily handle (like last year’s game against Northern Illinois). This prediction assumes UCF wins out and, by virtue of beating Louisville, takes the AAC crown.
Rose Bowl: Ohio State (Big Ten Champ) vs Stanford (BCS at-large)
Stanford and Ohio State in the Tradition-Is-The-Only-Thing-
Fiesta Bowl: Fresno State (BCS at-large) vs Baylor (Big XII Champ)
Fresno State is the team with the best chance to play BCS Buster this year. Baylor, for all their hopes and dreams, even if they go undefeated, is likely to only go as high as the Fiesta Bowl. Read the intro to see what would have to happen for Baylor to go higher.
Sugar Bowl: Missouri (BCS at-large) vs Clemson (BCS at-large)
A battle of Tigers, one who had National Title dreams at the season’s start, the other who came out of nowhere after a lackluster conference debut season to dominate an injured division. This would be a very good game. The only problem with this is the loser of the SEC Title game (Missouri, in this scenario) tends to drop out of BCS Bowl contention, regardless of record.
BCS National Championship Game: Alabama (BCS #1 / SEC Champ) vs Oregon (BCS #2 / PAC12 Champ)
Assuming both of these powerhouses win out, I can’t see anyone else getting into the National Championship Game. Florida State is the only other team I would even consider.
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