Thursday, December 18, 2014

Football Future-see 2014: Bowl Season

Record


Week 1
8-2

Week 2
5-0

Week 3
2-3

Week 4
4-1

Week 5
2-3

Week 6
2-8

Week 7
4-1

Week 8
3-2

Week 9
2-3

Week 10
2-3

Week 11
4-6

Week 12
3-2

Week 13
3-2

Week 14
5-5

Week 15
2-3

Bowls
21-17

Total
72-61
0.541

It is bowl season in college football. This year we have a total of 39 bowl games. The number has increased over the last few years, and I almost think that we’ll eventually reach a point where every team goes to a bowl. Because in America, everyone is a winner. We’ll also start handing out participation trophies… Anyway, here are the bowl games, in order of how they’re played. The Playoff Games are listed last. Most of the pre-December 29 bowls won’t get a lot of detail. Sorry, but that’s just the nature of the business.

**UPDATE - December 22: Through six games...well, it's not going well. Not at all. I'm 1-5 so far. Yeesh, this has been a bad year for the picks.**

**UPDATE - December 28: Through eighteen games...well, it's still not going well. I'm 6-12 so far. I wish I knew what happened to me this year. I'm currently 57-56 on the season, which is the closest I've ever been to falling under .500 this late in the year.**

**UPDATE - December 29: Through 21 games, my record stands at 9-12, and 60-56 on the year. Today has been good for me, with all three games coming out correct.**

**UPDATE - December 30: Through 24 games my record is 11-13 (62-57 on the year. Notre Dame nailed a last second field goal to seal a comeback win over LSU. Georgia trounced Louisville, running crazy on the #3 run defense in the country.**

**UPDATE - December 31: Through 27 games, my record stands at 12-15 (63-59 on the season), with TCU absolutely smashing Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl, Boise State surprising many in the Fiesta Bowl, and Georgia Tech's gimmicky-to-no-end offense overcoming Mississippi State.**

**UPDATE - January 1: Through 32 games my record is 15-17 (66-61 on the year.) A couple upsets both helped and hurt me.**

**UPDATE - January 3: Through 37 games my record is 19-18 (70-62 on the year.) The once-mighty SEC West finished 2-5 in their bowl games. The much-maligned SEC East went 5-0.**

**UPDATE - January 7: Through all bowl games (except the Championship Game) my record is 21-17 (72-61 on the year). **

The Games:

New Orleans Bowl (December 20, 11:00am, ESPN)
Nevada vs Louisiana-Lafayette
The Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana-Lafayette do battle with Nevada. While Louisiana-Lafayette has the better (or is that scarier?) mascot, Nevada will win this game.
Final Score: Nevada 28, Louisiana-Lafayette 17
INCORRECT: Louisiana-Lafayette won 16-3

New Mexico Bowl (December 20, 2:20pm, ESPN)
Utah State vs UTEP
Utah State is a team that can put a scare in you on any given game day. I look for them to take down UTEP early, with UTEP scoring a garbage time TD to make it respectable.
Final Score: Utah State 34, UTEP 21
CORRECT: Utah State won 21-6

Las Vegas Bowl (December 20, 3:30pm, ABC)
22 Utah vs Colorado State
I’m sticking with Colorado State, even though I picked them to win before their head coach jumped ship for Florida. Utah is a good team, but something about this game just screams “upset” to me.
Final Score: Colorado State 31, Utah 27
INCORRECT: Utah won 45-10

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (December 20, 5:45pm, ESPN)
Western Michigan vs Air Force
Air Force usually has a good offense, but their defense is typically suspect. I haven’t actually heard much out of the Academy this year, which leads me to picking Directional Michigan West to win this match-up.
Final Score: Western Michigan 27, Air Force 21
INCORRECT: Air Force won 38-24

Camellia Bowl (December 20, 9:15pm, ESPN)
South Alabama vs Bowling Green
I was pretty high on South Alabama early in the season and it didn’t exactly pay off. That said, I’m going to ride the Jaguars to the end of the season. Jags over Bowling Green.
Final Score: South Alabama 23, Bowling Green 17
INCORRECT: Bowling Green won 33-28

Miami Beach Bowl (December 22, 2:00pm, ESPN)
BYU vs Memphis
BYU is a college football independent, but I don’t know how much longer that will last. I can see the Cougars joining the Big XII, should an invite come their way. The fact that I’ve talked about their conference alignment more than their bowl game should tell you something about their bowl game. Cougars win.
Final Score: BYU 34, Memphis 17
INCORRECT: Memphis won 55-48 in 2OT...and the two teams fought brutally after the game

Boca Raton Bowl (December 23, 6:00pm, ESPN)
Marshall vs Northern Illinois
Once-mighty Marshall dropped all the way to the Boca Raton Bowl thanks to a single loss late in the season. Granted, in that loss they gave up 67 points to Western Kentucky, and yet still only lost by one point. Northern Illinois used to be the darling on the non-Power-Fives, but no more. Marshall wins.
Final Score: Marshall 35, Northern Illinois 28
CORRECT: Marshall won 52-38

Poinsettia Bowl (December 23, 9:30pm, ESPN)
Navy vs San Diego State
Navy typically has a very strong running game. San Diego State has been a bit of an enigma this season. The Aztecs are 1-4 against teams that reached bowl games, with their only win coming against Air Force (30-14). Navy beat Air Force 30-21. Seeing as San Diego State had an easier go against the cadets than the midshipmen did, I’m picking the Aztecs in a close game.
Final Score: San Diego State 24, Navy 21
INCORRECT: Navy won 17-16

Bahamas Bowl (December 24, Noon, ESPN)
Central Michigan vs Western Kentucky
Directional Michigan Central…wait, since when is Central a direction?...takes on Directional Kentucky West in the Bahamas. That’s a pretty nice way to spend the holidays. I think this game is a coin flip, personally. WKU handed Marshall their only loss, but also lost to the only “directional” school they played – and yeah, I’m using “directional” loosely at this point. CMU, on the other hand, is 2-1 versus “directional” opponents. Chippewas for the win!
Final Score: Central Michigan 38, Western Kentucky 35
INCORRECT: Western Kentucky won 49-48

Hawai’i Bowl (December 24, 8:00pm, ESPN)
Fresno State vs Rice
Fresno State is 6-7 on the year while Rice is 7-5. Fresno, though, is far more battle-tested than the Owls. Rice might put up a fight, but I think the Bulldogs of Fresno State walk away with the win.
Final Score: Fresno State 26, Rice 21
INCORRECT: Rice won 30-6

Heart of Dallas Bowl (December 26, 1:00pm, ESPN)
Illinois vs Louisiana Tech
Just two years ago, Louisiana Tech sported an offense that averaged nearly 52 points per game. This year they’ve averaged a paltry 37.5 points per game in comparison. Illinois slogged through the somewhat down Big Ten on their way to a 6-6 record. That said, I like the Big Ten over Conference USA. Fighting Illini win.
Final Score: Illinois 23, Louisiana Tech 17
INCORRECT: Louisiana Tech won 35-18

Quick Lane Bowl (December 26, 4:30pm, ESPN)
Rutgers vs North Carolina
Which North Carolina shows up for this game? Is it the UNC that lost 35-7 to in-state rival NC State…or is it the UNC that defeated Georgia Tech and Duke? I’m hedging my bets that it is the latter. Tar Heels win.
Final Score: North Carolina 38, Rutgers 14
INCORRECT: Rutgers won 40-21

St. Petersburg Bowl (December 26, 8:00pm, ESPN)
NC State vs Central Florida
NC State struggled to put away Georgia Southern in week one, and a month later put a scare into Florida State that forced the Seminoles into comeback mode. UCF is riding a four game winning streak including road wins over South Florida and East Carolina. Take Central Florida to win.
Final Score: UCF 30, NC State 20
INCORRECT: NC State won 34-27

Military Bowl (December 27, 1:00pm, ESPN)
Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech
The Bearcats are, in my opinion, by far the better team in this game. That means nothing, though. Ohio State was the better team than Virginia Tech…didn’t stop the Hokies from steamrolling the Buckeyes in Columbus. Cincinnati lost 50-28 to Ohio State. VT beat Ohio State 35-21. Again, that means nothing. Bearcats win going away.
Final Score: Cincinnati 33, Virginia Tech 17
INCORRECT: Virginia Tech won 33-17 (at least I had the score right)

Sun Bowl (December 27, 2:00pm, CBS)
15 Arizona State vs Duke
This match-up might have fundamentalist Christians in an uproar (and yes, I say that jokingly). The Sun Bowl features the Sun Devils vs the Blue Devils. The Sun Devils of Arizona State dropped three games this year: a blowout loss to UCLA, then close road losses to Oregon State and Arizona. ASU averages 37 points per game. Duke also lost three games, but their losses are worse than ASU’s. The Blue Devils average 32 points per game. I like ASU to pull away later in this game.
Final Score: Arizona State 32, Duke 20
CORRECT: Arizona State won 36-31

Independence Bowl (December 27, 3:30pm, ABC)
Miami vs South Carolina
South Carolina suffered through a lost season, but now faces Miami and a chance to regain some SEC pride over the upstart ACC. Miami is coming off a disappointing 12-point loss to lowly Pitt. I like South Carolina to rebound and win one for the Head Ball Coach.
Final Score: South Carolina 27, Miami 23
CORRECT: South Carolina won 24-21

Pinstripe Bowl (December 27, 4:30pm, ESPN)
Boston College vs Penn State
This game is still playing off the allure of being in Yankee Stadium. The match-up is solid and even, but I think Penn State finds enough James Franklin leadership to leave New York with a “W.”
Final Score: Penn State 17, Boston College 14
CORRECT: Penn State won 31-30

Holiday Bowl (December 27, 8:00pm, ESPN)
Nebraska vs 24 USC
Two of the most storied programs in college football meet for only the fourth time, but for the first time ever in a bowl game. Nebraska looked like a team with a lot of promise in the early going, but a later-season route by Wisconsin revealed the Huskers as more pretender than contender. USC, on the other hand, was up and down all season, finally settling in the Top 25. Nebraska has a good running game, if it can get established. But I think USC simply has more firepower than Nebraska. Trojans win.
Final Score: USC 38, Nebraska 27
CORRECT: USC won 45-42

Liberty Bowl (December 29, 2:00pm, ESPN)
TAMU vs West Virginia
West Virginia took on the role of giant-killer in the Big XII this year, especially whenever a Big XII power came to Morgantown. This game isn’t in Morgantown, though, and the Aggies of TAMU (I’m not using the ampersand any longer, because blogger dislikes it so much that it screws up editing) will bring their A-game in an attempt to salvage a bit of a lost season. The Mountaineers are a dangerous team, but I like the Aggies a little better in this game.
Final Score: TAMU 24, West Virginia 23
CORRECT: TAMU won 45-37

Russell Athletic Bowl (December 29, 5:30pm, ESPN)
Oklahoma vs 17 Clemson
One thing the college football playoff has done is provide bowl match-ups we haven’t seen in a long time, and that goes for the lower-tier bowls too. When is the last time Clemson played Oklahoma? Try the 1988 Citrus Bowl, which Clemson won 13-6. Most of the players on each team weren’t even born yet. Oklahoma expected big things at the start of the season. So did Clemson. The Tigers held course, though they tripped up against teams like Georgia and Florida State. I just like Clemson in this game. Don’t know why… Tigers win.
Final Score: Clemson 28, Oklahoma 26
CORRECT: Clemson won 40-6

Texas Bowl (December 29, 9:00pm, ESPN)
Arkansas vs Texas
Texas has been, without a doubt, the most disappoint major university team for a while now. The once powerhouse Longhorns have been largely irrelevant on the national stage for years. Arkansas, meanwhile, is a team ascending in the SEC. Having gone 17 straight conference games without a win, the Razorbacks went 2-1 against Mississippi State, LSU, and Ole Miss, allowing a combined 17 points, all of which was scored by Mississippi State. They shut out LSU (17-0) and Ole Miss (30-0). For that reason alone, I like Arkansas to roll the Longhorns in this game. Hogs win.
Final Score: Arkansas 38, Texas 17
CORRECT: Arkansas won 31-7

Music City Bowl (December 30, 3:00pm, ESPN)
Notre Dame vs 23 LSU
Boy, did Notre Dame ever fall from grace…the Irish lost five of their last six, including being blown out on the road by Arizona State and a shocking overtime home loss to Northwestern. LSU, meanwhile lost two of its last three, including a shutout loss to Arkansas, but the Tigers took Alabama to overtime before losing. In other words, this is a match-up of underachievers, though I don’t expect this game to disappoint. I’m looking for LSU to come out of the gate strong and hand another SEC beating to Notre Dame. Why? Why not? Tigers win.
Final Score: LSU 31, Notre Dame 17
INCORRECT: Notre Dame won 31-28

Belk Bowl (December 30, 6:30pm, ESPN)
13 Georgia vs 21 Louisville
You might as well call this the Todd Grantham Bowl. Games like this are proof the bowls are selected based on more than record and conference standing. Thirteen other FBS schools went 9-3 this year, but only Louisville was chosen to face Georgia. Why? Louisville’s Defensive Coordinator is Todd Grantham, who last year left the University of Georgia under rather acrimonious conditions, and took with him two big-name players who were kicked off the Dawgs for breaking team rules. Georgia’s offense is much better than Louisville’s, even with Todd Gurley hurt. The Cardinals’ defense should be stout, but Georgia should wear them down, especially in the second half, to reach ten wins. Dawgs win.
Final Score: Georgia 37, Louisville 28
CORRECT: Georgia won 37-14 (Hutson Mason broke Mike Bobo's team record for completion percentage, Nick Chubb set a school record for yards per carry (over 7 yards per carry) and passed Garrison Hearst for the fourth highest single season rushing total. Only Herschel Walker has rushed for more yards in a single season than Nick Chubb.) I like getting a team's score correct.

Foster Farms (San Francisco) Bowl (December 30, 10:00pm, ESPN)
Maryland vs Stanford
Stanford had one of the worst seasons in recent Cardinal history. That said, Stanford is still a dangerous team on any given Saturday, or in this case, a Tuesday. Add to that the fact this is basically a home game for Stanford, and you have the recipe for a blowout. Maryland’s best chance of winning this game is bringing out some kind of hideous uniform combination that dumbfounds the entire Stanford team. Otherwise, Stanford rolls, big.
Final Score: Stanford 42, Maryland 14
CORRECT: Stanford won 45-21

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (December 31, 12:30pm, ESPN)
9 Ole Miss vs 6 TCU
The outcome of this game hinges on two things:1) which Ole Miss defense shows up in Atlanta, and 2) which Bo Wallace shows up. If the defense that beat Alabama shows up, the Rebels have a chance. If the defense that lost 30-0 to Arkansas shows up, then Ole Miss will lose big. If Good Bo shows up the Rebels can hang with almost anyone. Bad Bo showing up, though, will spell disaster. Given the long toll of an SEC schedule, I’m more willing to think that the latter occurs in both cases. I hate to pick against the SEC, but unless Ole Miss can solidify their defense TCU is going to roll.
Final Score: TCU 34, Ole Miss 17
CORRECT: TCU won 42-3

Fiesta Bowl (December 31, 4:00pm, ESPN)
20 Boise State vs 10 Arizona
Boise State claimed the crown of non-Power-Five representative in the New Year’s Six Bowl…and something about a partridge in a pear tree…too many numbers. Arizona had a great season, though that tough loss to Oregon in the PAC-12 title game hurts, they can still hang their hats on the fact that they went into Eugene and beat the Ducks at home earlier in the season. Arizona will ride that confidence to a win over the upstart Broncos.
Final Score: Arizona 35, Boise State 24
INCORRECT: Boise State won 38-30

Capital One Orange Bowl (December 31, 8:00pm, ESPN)
7 Mississippi State vs 12 Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech took down Georgia to close the regular season and narrowly lost to Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. Mississippi State, though, is playing angry and they have a much better QB than Tech. In fact, Tech’s entire offense is gimmicky to no end. It works in college, but not in the NFL. I think Mississippi State comes out mad, and knocks Tech in the face from the first snap. One of the SEC’s Bulldog teams has to beat Georgia Tech, right?
Final Score: Mississippi State 35, Georgia Tech 21
INCORRECT: Georgia Tech won 49-34

Outback Bowl (January 1, Noon, ABC)
19 Auburn vs 18 Wisconsin
When I think of the bowl games I’d most like to watch, this one is very high on that list. Two evenly matched teams that suffered in the latter parts of the season. Wisconsin lost to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Auburn didn’t reach the SEC conference championship, but lost their last two conference games to Georgia and Alabama. Wisconsin’s loss may linger for them, which should allow Auburn to take advantage. Tigers win a close, hard-fought game.
Final Score: Auburn 33, Wisconsin 28
INCORRECT: Wisconsin won 34-31 in OT

Cotton Bowl (January 1, 12:30pm, ABC)
8 Michigan State vs 5 Baylor
Of the top tier bowls, while I’m excited about the playoffs, this is one of those games I’m really looking forward to. Baylor’s offense, at times, looked unstoppable. They hung 61 points on TCU. Granted, they gave up 58 to TCU. Michigan State, though, may be the best defense Baylor has seen all year. Sparty plays with a defensive ferocity few match. If Baylor can get their offense rolling early, then they stand a chance. If not, and I don’t think they do, Michigan State wins a close, hard-fought, true 4-quarter game.
Final Score: Michigan State 26, Baylor 24
CORRECT: Michigan State won 42-41

Citrus Bowl (January 1, 1:00pm, ESPN2)
16 Missouri vs 25 Minnesota
Minnesota sank their Gopher claws into the 25th spot in the polls and refused to let go. Missouri, meanwhile, has been all over the place. The Tigers lost at home to Indiana and were then blown out 34-0 by visiting Georgia. Minnesota almost beat Ohio State. Missouri grew battle-tested over the last month of the season, beating the Aggies, a resurgent Tennessee and Arkansas, and squaring off with Alabama for the SEC crown. If Missouri’s QB, Maty Mauk, can play like he did against the Aggies, then Missouri wins. I think he does. Tigers over Gophers.
Final Score: Missouri 30, Minnesota 26
CORRECT: Missouri won 33-17

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl (January 2, Noon, ESPN)
Houston vs Pittsburgh
Pitt is a team I can’t figure out. They stunk up the house against Georgia Tech, losing five fumbles in the first quarter, but then beat Miami, in Miami, by two touchdowns. Houston has a better record, but lsot by three touchdowns to UT San Antonio. I’ll go with Houston, based off record, but if vs-Miami Pitt shows up instead of vs-Georgia Tech Pitt, we might have a game.
Final Score: Houston 28, Pitt 20
CORRECT: Houston won 35-34

TaxSlayer(Gator) Bowl (January 2, 3:20pm, ESPN)
Iowa vs Tennessee
Tennessee is a team on the rise. They very well could be contenders in the SEC East next year, though I personally think 2016 may be a bit more realistic for the Vols. The Iowa Hawkeyes stumbled again in the Big Ten this year. They’ll try their best, but I think Tennessee claims their first bowl victory under Butch Jones. Vols win.
Final Score: Tennessee 32, Iowa 20
CORRECT: Tennessee won 45-28

Valero Alamo Bowl (January 2, 6:45pm, ESPN)
11 Kansas State vs 14 UCLA
Who is UCLA? Honestly, that team has been on a greater roller-coaster ride than almost any other team this season. QB Brett Hundley was supposed to be a Heisman candidate. We saw how that worked out. Kansas State, meanwhile, has quietly put together a fairly good season and stands on the edge of the Top Ten. When the dust clears over the Alamo Bowl, I think K-State stands tall with a big win.
Final Score: Kansas State 35, UCLA 21
INCORRECT: UCLA won 40-35

Cactus Bowl (January 2, 10:15pm, ESPN)
Washington vs Oklahoma State
There are several bowl games with the potential to steal the show this season, and this might be one of them. Yes, both teams had slightly disappointing seasons, but both are good teams that can step up to surprise you on any given game day. Washington will be looking to represent the PAC-12 in its effort to claim the top spot among the conference. Defeating Oklahoma State would go a long way toward doing that. But Oklahoma State will not go quietly. In fact, I like the Cowboys to win this game off a late TD.
Final Score: Oklahoma State 27, Washington 24
CORRECT: Oklahoma State won 30-22

Birmingham Bowl (January 3, 1:00pm, ESPN)
East Carolina vs Florida
Florida made a bowl game, even if their head coach didn’t. Will Muschamp has fled Gainesville for the comfier confines of Auburn. The Gators have to keep going, though. They’ll face an East Carolina team that was, at one time, the top non-Power-5 team in the land. The Pirates will be looking for a huge win over an SEC opponent. The Gators are playing for pride. I don’t like picking against the SEC…so I won’t. Gators win.
Final Score: Florida 24, East Carolina 21
CORRECT: Florida won 28-20

GoDaddy Bowl (January 4, 9:00pm, ESPN)
Toledo vs Arkansas State
I wish I could tell you more about these two, but I can’t. Arkansas State is making their fourth consecutive trip to this bowl. Toledo feels like the safer bet here, though. Can’t explain why…
Final Score: Toledo 42, Arkansas State 30
CORRECT: Toledo won 63-44


College Football Playoff Semifinals

Rose Bowl (January 1, 5:00pm, ESPN)
3 Florida State vs 2 Oregon
Oregon is closer to a national championship than at any time since they faltered against Auburn a few years back. Heisman winning QB Marcus Mariota has the Ducks primed to play a stalwart Florida State team that just refuses to lose. The Seminoles, as I noted in their preview against Georgia Tech, have danced the ragged edge of disaster so often this season that it’s a wonder the Noles aren’t 7-6 instead of 13-0. Oregon, meanwhile, has left little in doubt outside of an early season home loss to Arizona, which they later avenged in the PAC-12 Championship Game. FSU will look for Jameis Winston to once again lead them through a tough scrap, but Oregon is unlike any team Florida State has played. Oregon will win, but the loss of their star cornerback to a knee injury in practice will allow FSU to turn this one into a shootout. Ducks win.
Final Score: Oregon 42, Florida State 38
CORRECT: Oregon won 59-20

Sugar Bowl (January 1, 8:30pm, ESPN)
4 Ohio State vs 1 Alabama
The second semifinal game on New Year’s Day pits Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes against Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide of Alabama. Ohio State is coming off an absolute dismantling of Wisconsin. While one game doesn’t necessarily prove a team belongs in the playoffs, that one game spoke volumes about who Ohio State is. Alabama, on the other hand, is climbing out of a season-long battle in the SEC West. After taking down Missouri in the SEC Championship Game, the Tide punched their ticket to the inaugural playoff. Ohio State is on their third quarterback of the year, which will probably come back to haunt them against a defense like Alabama. The Tide, meanwhile, have solidified behind Blake Sims as their QB. I think this game is interesting for the first half, but the Tide defense will overwhelm Ohio State’s offense. Alabama pulls away in the second half for a strong win.
Final Score: Alabama 35, Ohio State 17
INCORRECT: Ohio State won 42-35

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