Record
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Week 1
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8-2
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Week 2
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5-0
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Week 3
Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 |
2-3
4-1 2-3 2-8 4-1 3-2 2-3 | |
Total
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32-23
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0.582
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Week Nine is upon us. Through 50 games, I’ve correctly picked 30. That’s not that good. I’m usually better. Then again, this has been the year of the upset. Some wild and wacky things have happened in college football this season. Mississippi State is currently #1 in the nation. Kansas State is currently the top team in the Big XII. The Big Ten is very nearly on life support when it comes to the playoff. Kentucky is ahead of South Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee in the SEC East. And the funny thing is, things get even crazier next week.
For the picks, I’m still using the AP Poll. No Georgia, as the Dawgs have the week off to prepare for the greatly diminished Florida Gators. (I’m no fan of using the Transitive Property in college football, but Georgia beat Missouri 34-0 and Missouri beat Florida 42-13…so obviously Georgia will beat Florida 76-13, right?). Instead we get an unranked ACC game, a ranked match-up of PAC-12 South teams, a ranked match-up of SEC West teams, and two ranked vs unranked cross-divisional games from the SEC.
The Games:
Miami(FL) at Virginia Tech (Thursday, 8:00pm, ESPN)
Miami has played one ranked opponent (on the road at Nebraska) and lost by 10. The Canes also lost to Louisville and Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech has played one ranked opponent (on the road at Ohio State) and won by 14. The Hokies followed that up by losing to East Carolina and Georgia Tech. They just lost to Pittsburgh. Neither team has been has impressive as they once were. Virginia Tech looked like a team that could make a run, but their recent losses have solidly halted their momentum. Miami is basically Duke Johnson and 21 other players. I think the Hokies win here, because it’s in Blacksburg. Move this game to Miami and that’s a different story.
Final Score: Virginia Tech 28, Miami 21
INCORRECT: Miami won 30-6
3 Ole Miss at 24 LSU (Saturday, 7:15pm, ESPN)
The last time LSU faced a ranked team they gave up 41 points to Auburn. They barely squeaked by Florida. Ole Miss, meanwhile, just obliterated Tennessee to the point that Hugh Freeze actually apologized to Butch Jones for his team scoring a late TD. Ole Miss has the better QB in Bo Wallace. LSU has a good freshman RB in Leonard Fournette. Ole Miss, though, has what I believe is the best defense in the country. This game might be close for the first half, but I think Ole Miss will walk away with it in the second half. Rebels win.
Final Score: Ole Miss 30, LSU 17
INCORRECT: LSU won 10-7
South Carolina at 5 Auburn (Saturday, 7:30pm, SEC Network)
Auburn is good. I actually think Auburn is better this year than they were last year. South Carolina, though, isn’t. The Gamecocks have stumbled. They’ve lost to TAMU, Missouri, and Kentucky. Last weekend, when Georgia played Arkansas, Alabama played TAMU, and the Gamecocks hosted Furman, it was South Carolina’s 21 point halftime lead that was the closest game among the three. Auburn is going to roll in this game. I’m calling for a 21-point Tigers win, but it could be worse. South Carolina is looking for answers.
Final Score: Auburn 35, South Carolina 14
CORRECT: Auburn won 42-35
4 Alabama at Tennessee (Saturday, 7:30pm, ESPN2)
Some people complain about the cross-division rivalries in the SEC being unfair. After all, Ole Miss plays Vanderbilt every year and Mississippi State plays Kentucky every year…meanwhile, Florida plays LSU, Georgia plays Auburn, and Tennessee plays Alabama. But, college football is cyclical. Kentucky is up this year, but so is MSU. Vandy is down this year. Alabama is a team that almost loses to Arkansas one week, then blows out the Aggies by 59 the next week. Tennessee is a team that is still about a year away from contending in the conference. Hopefully they put up a better fight against the Tide than they did last week against Ole Miss. Alabama will win this one, but I’m curious to see what the Vols bring to the table.
Final Score: Alabama 31, Tennessee 17
CORRECT: Alabama won 34-20
20 USC at 19 Utah (Saturday, 10:00pm, Fox Sports 1)
Show of hands: who here realized that Utah was ranked? Keep those hands up if you realized that Utah was ranked ahead of USC. The Utes have been quiet. Very quiet. USC lacks the ability to be quiet. When you’re the highest-profile school in your area (sorry, UCLA) and you’ve basically served as the de facto NFL team for Los Angeles for the last decade, there is no such thing as quiet. USC needs a win to remain in the PAC-12 South race. If Utah wins, the game next week between the Utes and Arizona State will likely decide the PAC-12 South winner. I look for USC to win this one, but don’t be surprised either way. Trojans win a close game.
Final Score: USC 24, Utah 20
INCORRECT: Utah won 24-21
The Right Wing Top Ten
The Associated Press Poll and the Amway Coaches Poll both feature a Preseason version. I even posted a “Preseason Top Ten,” or something to that effect, a while back. I never intended to use that poll as a basis for the Right Wing Top Ten, though.
15. Ohio State Buckeyes (last week: NR)
14. Arizona State Sun Devils (last week: 15)
13. Baylor Bears (last week: 4)
12. East Carolina Pirates (last week: 14)
11. Kansas State Wildcats (last week: 12)
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (last week: 5)
Why: The Irish pushed the envelope on the pick play and the refs finally broke and called them on it. Otherwise, Notre Dame would’ve beaten Florida State.
9. TCU Horned Frogs (last week: 13)
Why: Those Horned Frogs are making some noise in the Big XII.
8. Georgia Bulldogs (last week: 9)
Why: Again, Gurley who? Georgia has actually played better football without Gurley than they did with him. They just handed the SEC West their first non-SEC-West-opponent loss this year, and the beating of Arkansas was not as close as the score indicates.
7. Auburn Tigers (last week: 8)
Why: Auburn is quietly putting together a nice little run after faltering against Mississippi State.
6. Oregon Ducks (last week: 7)
Why: Oregon looks to be on a collision course with Arizona State for the PAC-12 title.
5. Michigan State Spartans (last week: 6)
Why: Sparty looks to be the top dog in the Big Ten. A later-season date with Ohio State will tell the tale, though.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (last week: 10)
Why: You beat the Aggies by 59 points and you’re bound to jump up a long way in the polls.
3. Florida State Seminoles (last week: 3)
Why: Okay, Florida State beat Notre Dame, but really Notre Dame beat themselves. There is no one standing in the way of Florida State and reaching the playoff.
2. Ole Miss Rebels (last week: 2)
Why: Ole Miss has, without doubt, the best defense in the country. They just shut down a Tennessee team that will probably be an SEC contender next year.
1. Mississippi State Bulldogs (last week: 1)
Why: Mississippi State begins their defense of the top spot.
If the Playoff Started Today
I started this section last year, knowing that the College Football Playoff was coming. This is what I think the selection committee will do. This has nothing to do with my Top 15 poll, or with the current AP or Coaches Poll. If the playoff started today, who would the committee select?
The Four Teams In
These four teams would make up the playoff field if it all started today. #1 would play #4, #2 would play #3. I’ve ranked them as such, because I believe the Selection Committee will move to limit two teams from the same conference reaching the championship game. Of course, the Egg Bowl later this year will sort out the Mississippi schools.
1 Mississippi State
2 Florida State
3 Michigan State
4 Ole Miss
The First Four Teams Out
5. Alabama
6. Oregon
7. Georgia
8. Notre Dame
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