Examining the Schedules of Georgia’s Two Biggest College Football Programs

With the college football season rapidly approaching (Division I-A kicks off 35 days from today) I’ve begun the groundwork for this season’s series of my weekly game prediction articles, loving titled Football Future-see. Someone else was already using Pigskin Prognostication, so I went with a similarly alliterative title.

As an added bonus, this year I’m going to take an in-depth look at the two primary collegiate football programs here in the state of Georgia: The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, in Atlanta, and the University of Georgia Bulldogs, in Athens.

Let’s look at the major differences between the two.

Georgia plays in the SEC, which has, for the last decade, been touted as the best conference in all of college football. The SEC consistently produces the most NFL talent. Prior to last season, in which Florida State barely bested Auburn for the final BCS National Championship, the SEC won every college football national title from 2005 to 2013.

Georgia Tech plays in the ACC, which has struggled on the national stage lately. Florida State reversed that stance, winning the 2014 BCS National Championship. The ACC, though, is usually ranked behind at least the SEC and PAC-12, and often behind both the Big Ten and Big XII, when it comes to overall conference rankings.

To push these comparisons closer to home, let’s look at their respective records. Last season, the Bulldogs faced injury like almost no other team in the nation. The Tennessee game was particularly painful, as several key players went down to knee injuries. At the time, I placed the blame squarely on the targeting rule, which is still a confusing rule. The NCAA was attempting to make football safer by forcing tacklers to aim lower, but what actually happened was defenders began going for the knees. Football players have basically no padding or protection around their knees. All the padding is around their head and shoulders, exactly where the NCAA does not want people getting hit.

So Georgia was banged up almost all season. The schedule began brutally, with a road trip to #8 Clemson, a home game with #6 South Carolina, and home game with Conference USA stalwart North Texas, and a home tilt with #6 LSU. Most prognosticators said if Georgia went 2-2 in that stretch they’d be doing well. They went 3-1, losing at Clemson and then handily defeating South Carolina. The LSU game was probably the most exciting SEC game of the year, until Auburn decided to invoke miracle after miracle on their run to Pasadena. Georgia would finish the season 8-5 after watching the SEC’s most prolific QB, Aaron Murray, go down with a torn ACL, and a bowl game rematch with Nebraska that featured some of the worst play-calling in my experience as a UGA fan.

Georgia Tech, on the other hand, opened the season by winning three games, losing three games, then winning three games. While Georgia was busy in an absolute battle with Clemson, Georgia Tech was tying up a 70-0 victory over tiny Elon College. They would also beat Duke and North Carolina before dropping three straight to Virginia Tech, Miami, and BYU. Clemson would embarrass the Jackets on a Thursday night in Death Valley.

Georgia Tech had to wrap up the regular season, by facing off against Georgia, who was lacking Aaron Murray and a host of other players. Tech went up 20-0 before the Georgia offense got on the same page and even scored. Georgia RB Todd Gurley would go on to score 4 total TDs as the Dawgs disposed of the Jackets 41-34 in double overtime. It was an exhilarating win if you were a Georgia fan and a heartbreaking loss if you support Tech. This was truly “the one that got away.”

Since the 2004 season, Georgia Tech has an overall record of 78-53, with only one season in which they recorded double-digit wins. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, are 94-37 over that same time span, with 6 seasons of double-digit wins. As you can see, the Dawgs are a full 16 games better than Tech over the last ten years.

So how will they do this year?

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Honestly, it’s not looking so hot for Georgia Tech this year. In fact, I dare say that Head Coach Paul Johnson’s seat has to be getting warm in Atlanta. The Jackets need a big season, but I just don’t see it happening this year.

The schedule leaves them with only one back-to-back home stretch and a single back-to-back away stretch. Otherwise, they alternate home and away games. Two of their three toughest conference games are at home: Miami and Clemson. Of course, they end the season with a likely punishing trip to Athens.

I’m currently projecting Georgia Tech to start the season 3-0, and probably to look good doing it, but consider the competition: Wofford, Tulane, and Georgia Southern, who is making the jump to Division I-A football. I look for Tech to go 4-2 at home and 2-4 on the road, leading to a final record of 6-6. That might not be good enough to justify Paul Johnson hanging around the sideline too much longer.

Date	Home/Away	Opponent	Projected Outcome	Projected Record
Aug 30	H	Wofford Terriers	W	1-0
Sept 6	A	Tulane Green Wave	W	2-0
Sept 13	H	Georgia Southern Eagles	W	3-0
Sept 20	A	Virginia Tech Hokies	L	3-1
Oct 4	H	Miami Hurricanes	L	3-2
Oct 11	H	Duke Blue Devils	W	4-2
Oct 18	A	North Carolina Tar Heels	L	4-3
Oct 25	A	Pittsburgh Panthers	L	4-4
Nov 1	H	Virginia Cavaliers	W	5-4
Nov 8	A	NC State Wolfpack	W	6-4
Nov 15	H	Clemson Tigers	L	6-5
Nov 29	A	Georgia Bulldogs	L	6-6
		Final Projected Record =		6-6

Georgia Bulldogs

Now, at first glance, you’re going to say that this is the homer call to end all homer calls. Yes, I’m looking for big things from Georgia this year. The schedule shapes up well, with only one truly challenging road game in Columbia, SC, against Spurrier and the Gamecocks. Georgia plays out the finale of the home-and-home with Clemson in week one. The entire state of Tennessee will visit Athens from September 27 to October 4. The road game in Columbia, MO might be tricky, but Missouri will basically be breaking in a new QB, and they’re without their most dangerous offensive weapon, as Dorial Green-Beckham was dismissed from the team.

The yearly dance with Florida takes place November 1, but Florida is still down. If the Gators can’t top 7 wins this year, which is a possibility, then Will Muschamp may be looking for a job. Looking at the schedule, the lone rough spot I see is that November 15 date with Auburn. The Tigers got lucky last year, with the Prayer in Jordan-Hare winning them the game. (Of course, they would call forth another miracle in the Iron Bowl two weeks later before going to the Georgia Dome to run roughshod over Missouri.) Auburn is a good team, and the road team often plays well in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry.

I look for Georgia to knock off Tech when the Ramblin’ Wreck rambles into Athens. Georgia, under my calculations, finishes the season with 11 wins to 1 loss, advancing to the SEC Championship Game and a potential berth in the College Football Playoff.

Date	Home/Away	Opponent	Projected Outcome	Projected Record
Aug 30	H	Clemson Tigers	W	1-0
Sept 13	A	South Carolina Gamecocks	W	2-0
Sept 20	H	Troy Trojans	W	3-0
Sept 27	H	Tennessee Volunteers	W	4-0
Oct 4	H	Vanderbilt Commodores	W	5-0
Oct 11	A	Missouri Tigers	W	6-0
Oct 18	A	Arkansas Razorbacks	W	7-0
Nov 1	N*	Florida Gators	W	8-0
Nov 8	A	Kentucky Wildcats	W	9-0
Nov 15	H	Auburn Tigers	L	9-1
Nov 22	H	Charleston Southern Buccaneers	W	10-1
Nov 29	H	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	W	11-1
		Final Projected Record =		11-1

*Neutral site

Of course, these predictions are worth about as much as the paper they’re written on (and unless you’ve printed out this article, then these predictions aren’t even written on paper.