The Braves, a Big Big Big Division Lead, and a Prediction of October

(**Note: All dates and statistics written herein were taken from standings and stats sheets as of August 1, 2013. Don’t blame me if the information has changed by the time of publication.**)

It’s August 1, 2013. The major league baseball season is entering its home stretch. The trade deadline is tomorrow night. Some teams will buy; some teams will sell. The Red Sox lead the AL East by a half-game. Detroit leads their divisions by two-and-a-half games. Oakland has a four game lead over Texas. In the National League, the Dodgers and Pirates each have two-and-a-half game leads in their respective divisions. And then there is the NL East…where Atlanta currently holds an eleven game lead over Washington.

The Braves are the only team in the East with a positive run differential, they are the only team over .500 in the standings…in other words, they have the most comfortable lead, and the easiest schedule of a division leader going forward. According to ESPN, no other team has a higher percentage chance of making the playoffs this year. The Braves recently held the Cardinals much vaunted offense to three runs in three games in a sweep, and they’ve currently taken the first three (of a four game set) from Colorado, scoring 29 runs in three games. This is the style of offense everyone expected the Braves to have. But listening to the Braves-Cardinals game last Sunday night on ESPN, I was struck by something.

If I had no knowledge of what has gone on so far this season, and was completely oblivious to the standings, I would think Atlanta was chasing the top spot in the division, not leading it, and ESPN would have me convinced that Atlanta was the most vulnerable team to ever play.

I know that I’ve lately been on a kick of tearing ESPN a new one for their practices, so consider this Part 34 of my ongoing ESPN rant. Of the remaining 54 games on the Braves schedule, a whopping 7 are against teams currently above .500 in the standings. With the Braves currently 63-45, going .500 the rest of the way would leave them 90-72. I have to believe they’ll play better than .500 baseball. So let’s assume they play .600 baseball (which is 32-22 the rest of the way). Doing that would leave the Braves with a record of 95-67. That feels right for this Braves club. The offense, when it’s firing on all cylinders, is nigh-upon unstoppable...just ask Colorado, who is currently learning what that Braves Buzzsaw feels like. They have runners in scoring position when the lead-off hitter steps to the plate in the first. Even the pitchers have gotten in on the home run fun.

But when you live by the home run, you die by the strikeout. And boy, does this team ever strikeout…a lot. Certain batters, who I won’t name **coughUggla-and-BJ-Uptoncough** seem to think that they are only allowed to hit home runs, and refuse to try and put the ball in play any other way. Uggla swings so hard at every pitch that he looks like he gives himself a hernia on every at bat.

Here’s another thing…you don’t have to swing at the first pitch you see every time. You’re not instilling fear in the heart of the pitcher by swing madly/blindly/wildly at the first thing he offers.

If ESPN is right that the Braves are vulnerable, it’s because the Braves make themselves vulnerable by enforcing ineptitude on offense that does not need to be there. This team should be good enough offensively to put up 5 runs a game or better. The fact they don’t shows impatience at the plate that will cost them games, especially in October.

So let’s predict some baseball here on August 1. The trade deadline is passed. No major moves were made. The Braves traded for Angels reliever Scott Downs and got immediate results (Downs arrived at the ballpark as the game started, got dressed, went to meet his teammates and was immediately thrown into action and got the win against Colorado) in game one of the four-game set.

So how will it all shake out? Here’s the Right Wing’s prediction: (I’ll probably take some grief for this)

American League

East: Tampa Bay

Central: Detroit
West: Oakland
Wild Cards: Boston, Cleveland

Division Series:
Detroit over Boston – in 6
Tampa Bay over Oakland – in 5

League Championship Series:
Detroit over Tampa Bay– in 6

National League

East: Atlanta
Central: St. Louis
West: Los Angeles
Wild Cards: Pittsburgh, Arizona

Division Series:
Atlanta over Pittsburgh– in 5
St. Louis over Los Angeles– in 4

League Championship Series:
Atlanta over St. Louis in 7

World Series
Atlanta over Detroit – in 7