NFL Win-Loss Predictions 2014

The NFL Draft takes place in a little less than two weeks. The league unveiled the 2014 regular season schedule earlier this week. The last couple years I’ve toyed with the schedule and trying to predict records. I’m usually way off. This year, I’m sharing those predictions with you, the readers at home.

What follows is a series of win-loss total predictions for each team, broken down by Conference and Division. Note, please, that these predictions are Pre-Draft, meaning that some things could potentially change. Note, also, that I’m lazy and probably won’t go back and change these predictions even after the Draft.

I could take the easy way and just predict the favorites to win massively, but if you’ve ever read my college predictions, you know that’s not my style. I’ll go out on a limb if there’s a limb to go out upon.

American Conference (in predicted order of finish)

AFC East

Tom Brady and his arch-nemesis, Peyton Manning

New England Patriots
Predicted Record: 12-4 (#3 Seed in the AFC)
I’m predicting the Patriots to open with a road loss to Miami, but to then go 12-3 the rest of the way. The Pats will strike a solid balance, going 6-2 on the road and 6-2 at home.
Losses: @Miami, @Kansas City, New York Jets, Buffalo

Miami Dolphins
Predicted Record: 8-8
The Dolphins biggest bright spot will be that Week One victory over New England. After that, the team plays sub-.500 football the rest of the way.
Losses: @ Buffalo, Kansas City, @Oakland, Green Bay, @ Denver, Baltimore, @ New England, Minnesota

Buffalo Bills
Predicted Record: 7-9
I’m thinking this will be a tale of two seasons for the Bills, as they go 2-6 in the first 8 games, then 5-3 over the last 8. Their key victory will be in Week 17, as they knock off a New England team that is resting many of their starters.
Losses: @Chicago, @Houston, @Detroit, New England, Minnesota, @New York Jets, @ Miami, @Denver, Green Bay

New York Jets
Predicted Record: 6-10
The Jets, under my prediction, will be 5-5 headed into their Bye Week, and then the wheels come off as they go 1-5 over their final six games.
Losses: @Green Bay, Chicago, @San Diego, Denver, @Kansas City, @Buffalo, Miami, @Minnesota, New England, @Miami

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens
Predicted Record: 11-5 (#4 Seed in the AFC)
The Ravens once again rule the AFC North. They’ll split the nastiest rivalry in football with the Steelers, but then suffer one of the more shocking losses of the year in Week 16 against Houston. Still, the Ravens will be nearly perfect at home.
Losses: @Indianapolis, @Cincinnati, @Pittsburgh, @ New Orleans, @Houston

Pittsburgh Steelers
Predicted Record: 8-8 (#6 Seed in the AFC – Wild Card)
That’s right, 8-8 is good enough for the last Wild Card slot in the AFC. Pittsburgh will be looking to return to prominence, and a good draft will help them on that path.
Losses: @Baltimore, @Carolina, @Cleveland, Indianapolis, @New York Jets, New Orleans, @Atlanta, Kansas City

Cincinnati Bengals:
Predicted Record: 7-9
The Bengals falter and miss the playoffs, which will hang even more pressure on Andy Dalton and the offense. Cincinnati will carry a 7-5 record into Week 14, at which point they’ll reel off 4 consecutive losses to end the season.
Losses: @Baltimore, @New England, Carolina, @Indianapolis, @New Orleans, Pittsburgh, @Cleveland, Denver, @Pittsburgh

Cleveland BrownsPredicted Record: 4-12
Poor Cleveland. You are truly a factory of sadness.
Losses: @Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, @Tennessee, @Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, @Cincinnati, @Atlanta, @Buffalo, Indianapolis, @Carolina, @Baltimore

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts
Predicted Record: 13-3 (#1 Seed in the AFC)
If things come together the way I think they can in Indianapolis, the Colts are in for a big year. QB Andrew Luck is the driving force of an offense that should be more than adequate. Week One in Denver will tell a big portion of the story.
Losses: Philadelphia, New England, Washington

Houston Texans
Predicted Record: 5-11
This season qualifies as a bounce-back year for Houston after a humiliating 2013 campaign. A new head coach, likely a new Quarterback…things are looking up in Houston. The heart of the season won’t be that great, but leaving on a two-game win streak helps.
Losses: Washington, @New York Giants, @Dallas, Indianapolis, @Pittsburgh, @Tennessee, Philadelphia, @ Cleveland, Cincinnati, @Jacksonville, @Indianapolis

Tennessee Titans
Predicted Record: 5-11
Another rough year in Tennessee, as the Titans keep trying to gain traction in the division.
Losses: @Kansas City, Dallas, @Cincinnati, @Indianapolis, @Baltimore, Pittsburgh, @Houston, New York Giants, New York Jets, @Jacksonville, Indianapolis

Jacksonville Jaguars
Predicted Record: 3-13
We’re not exactly dealing with an improving situation in Jacksonville…now, should the Jags decide to take a QB, we may see some differences made. Until then, this team is a long way from playoff ready.
Losses: @Philadelphia, @Washington, Indianapolis, @San Diego, Pittsburgh, @Tennessee, Miami, @Cincinnati, Dallas, @Indianapolis, New York Giants, @Baltimore, @Houston

AFC West

Denver Broncos
Predicted Record: 13-3 (#2 Seed in the AFC)
Denver matches Indianapolis in record, but that week one showdown makes the difference in seeding.
Losses: Indianapolis, @New England, @San Diego

Kansas City Chiefs
Predicted Record: 8-8 (#5 Seed in the AFC – Wild Card)
Not the easiest of seasons for the Chiefs, and they basically back into a playoff spot, going 3-5 over their last eight.
Losses: @Denver, @San Diego, St. Louis, @Buffalo, Seattle, @Oakland, Denver, @Arizona

San Diego Chargers
Predicted Record: 7-9
Ten years since being drafted by the Giants and traded to the Chargers, Phillip Rivers has yet to get the Bolts over the top. This season is no different. I’ve got the Bolts going 1-7 on the road and 6-2 at home. In all fairness, their home schedule is a lot easier than their road schedule.
Losses: Seattle, @Buffalo, @Oakland, @Denver, @Miami, @Baltimore, New England, @San Francisco, @Kansas City

Oakland Raiders
Predicted Record: 3-13 (#1 Pick in the Draft)
While we don’t yet know who will be the top pick in next year’s draft, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Oakland making the call at #1. This franchise just cannot seem to put it together.
Losses: @New York Jets, Houston, @New England, Arizona, @Cleveland, @Seattle, Denver, @San Diego, @St. Louis, San Francisco, @Kansas City, Buffalo, @Denver

National Conference (in predicted order of finish)

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles
Predicted Record: 9-7 (#4 Seed in the NFC)
Once again the NFC East looks to be an unholy scrum of teams vying for the top spot. Philadelphia will stagger away with the prize this year, all while barely going over .500.
Losses: Washington, @San Francisco, @Arizona, @Green Bay, Tennessee, Seattle, @New York Giants

New York Giants
Predicted Record: 8-8
The Giants reach the .500 mark, but go no further. Being 8-8 in the NFC is not good enough for a playoff spot. Eli will need some help if the Giants want to win the division.
Losses: Arizona, Atlanta, @Philadelphia, Indianapolis, @Seattle, San Francisco, Washington, @St. Louis

Washington Redskins
Predicted Record: 8-8
This looks like the year in which no one cares what Washington’s record is, as it appears the tide has turned on the team’s nickname. Redskins, while the moniker of the team for many, many years, has fallen under intense scrutiny.
Losses: New York Giants, @Arizona, Tennessee, @Minnesota, @San Francisco, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Dallas, their team nickname

Dallas Cowboys
Predicted Record: 6-10
Yet another failing year for “America’s Team.” Tony Romo and company just are not getting the job done. Frankly, though, the biggest problem with this team is the fact that the owner has final say in all football personnel decisions, a burden he doesn’t need to carry. In fact, that’s why God created General Managers.
Losses: San Francisco, New Orleans, @Seattle, New York Giants, Washington, Arizona, @New York Giants, Philadelphia, @Philadelphia, Indianapolis

NFC North

Green Bay PackersPredicted Record: 12-4 (#2 Seed in the NFC)
Aaron Rodgers will have the Packers ready for a deep run into the playoffs. Don’t fret over the 1-2 start, Pack fans. Your team goes 11-2 after the first three.
Losses: @Seattle, @Detroit, @Minnesota, New England

Minnesota Vikings
Predicted Record: 7-9
The old black and blue division is sure to beat each other up pretty badly during the season, leading to some not so pretty records. It’s enough for Minnesota to leap back up to second place in the division. The Vikes open the season 0-6 before going 7-3 the rest of the way. A new QB will take a few weeks to really adjust.
Losses: @St. Louis, New England, @New Orleans, Atlanta, @Green Bay, Detroit, @Chicago, Carolina, @Detroit

Chicago BearsPredicted Record: 7-9
Daaaaaaaaa’ Bears, da’ Bears, da’ Bears, da’ Bears. Hey, somebody’s gotta eat all those brats, right?
Losses: @San Francisco, Green Bay, Miami, @New England, @Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Detroit, @Minnesota

Detroit LionsPredicted Record: 5-11
The Lions take another step backward, but depending on what they do in this upcoming draft, they could be primed for a big step forward next season.
Losses: New York Giants, @Carolina, @New York Jets, New Orleans, @Atlanta, Miami, @Arizona, @ New England, Chicago, Tampa Bay, @Green Bay

NFC South

New Orleans SaintsPredicted Record: 12-4 (#3 Seed in the NFC)
The Saints have learned how to be a good franchise and how to build a good team. Issues of cheating and bounties aside, these guys know how to play football.
Losses: Green Bay, @Carolina, @Chicago, Atlanta

Atlanta Falcons
Predicted Record: 9-7 (#6 Seed in the NFC – Wild Card)
The Falcons have several holes for a team that came 10 yards shy of the Super Bowl just two seasons ago. This Draft could help, or it could land one of the more dominating defensive players to come into the league in a long while. Until then, the Dirty Birds sneak into the playoffs at just over .500.
Losses: New Orleans, @Cincinnati, Chicago, @Baltimore, @Tampa Bay, @Carolina, @Green Bay

Carolina PanthersPredicted Record: 8-8
The Panthers step back a bit, having lost some of their offensive firepower. Their defense is good enough to keep them in games, but they’ll need to score more if they want to reach the playoffs. A 3-0 start will give Panthers fans false hope.
Losses: @Baltimore, Chicago, @Green Bay, Seattle, @Philadelphia, @New Orleans, Tampa Bay, @Atlanta

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Predicted Record: 6-10
Like Carolina, Tampa lost some offense that they’ll look to replace in the draft. They need a franchise QB, as well. Drafting a QB doesn’t usually mean instant success. This team faces a murderers row in weeks one through six. If they can come out of that stretch at 3-3 then great…I think 1-5 sounds more reasonable.
Losses: Carolina, @Atlanta, @Pittsburgh, @New Orleans, Baltimore, Minnesota, @Washington, Cincinnati, Green Bay, New Orleans

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks
Predicted Record: 13-3 (#1 Seed in the NFC)
Seattle begins their Super Bowl title defense by going 2-2 to start the year. I think Denver sneaks out a win in Seattle in week three, then the ‘Hawks lose a tricky east coast trip to Washington in week five. They’ll go 11-1 after that, though.
Losses: Denver, @Washington, @San Francisco

San Francisco 49ers
Predicted Record: 11-5 (#5 Seed in the NFC – Wild Card)
The Niners will want revenge on Seattle, but will have to settle for a season split and a wild card berth into the playoffs.
Losses: Kansas City, @Denver, @New Orleans, @Seattle, Arizona

Arizona CardinalsPredicted Record: 9-7
Arizona is one of those teams that can sneak up on anyone. With the proper QB, the Cardinals can stretch the field and open up the run game. If their defense can hold them up in certain games, they could be a playoff team.
Losses: San Diego, San Francisco, @Denver, St. Louis, @Seattle, @Atlanta, Seattle

St. Louis RamsPredicted Record: 6-10
The Rams have to determine soon if Sam Bradford just needs more weapons around him, or if he’s just not their QB going forward. Bradford may be about to get the best WR in the draft, barring the Rams trading down from #2. Still, not enough to scratch the outer edges of the playoffs.
Losses: @Tampa Bay, Dallas, @Philadelphia, San Francisco, Seattle, @San Francisco, Denver, @San Diego, Arizona, @Seattle

Playoff Picture

AFC

#1 Seed – Indianapolis Colts

#2 Seed – Denver Broncos

#3 Seed – New England Patriots

#4 Seed – Baltimore Ravens

#5 Seed (WC) – Kansas City Chiefs

#6 Seed (WC) – Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC

#1 Seed – Seattle Seahawks

#2 Seed – Green Bay Packers

#3 Seed – New Orleans Saints

#4 Seed – Philadelphia Eagles

#5 Seed (WC) – San Francisco 49ers

#6 Seed (WC) – Atlanta Falcons

Exploring Baseball's (Possible Future) Expansion and Realignment

Author’s Note: This article contains absolutely nothing but pure speculation about an issue that may or may not be on the radar of Major League Baseball. This article represents nothing more than the author having a bit of fun theorizing about the future of the game.

Major League Baseball (MLB) is comprised of two leagues, each comprised of fifteen teams spread among three divisions. In recent baseball history, the Houston Astros jumped ship from the National League to the American League, evening out both leagues at fifteen teams, and necessitating continual interleague play in the process.

I was swept up by the novelty of interleague play when it first began in the dark days of the 1990s. But after a while the shine wore off and we were left with a series of games in the middle of the year that were just as meaningful/meaningless as the next game. Such is the case of a 162 game regular season. Now, though, we have an interleague series being played at all times.

I’ve ranted before about the coming inevitability of the National League accepting the Designated Hitter as part of the game. The DH is used by the minor leagues. The DH is used in the All Star Game. The DH is used by the entire American League. But the National League still has pitchers batting. I’m all for a position player having to bat, but the future of the game doesn’t seem to lie along that path. For the record, the NL has seen several sluggers jump to the American League on long-term contracts (Albert Pujols, Brian McCann, etc.), knowing that they only need to play their position for a couple more years, then they can full time DH, just like David Ortiz does in Boston. If they want to keep up in this game-wide arms race, the National League has to ratify the DH for their league.

Beyond the mechanics of the game, I’ve heard rumblings in the past of the baseball potentially expanding. The most common version of these rumblings includes the addition of two teams, one per league, for a total of 32 teams, and each league splitting into NFL-style 4-team divisions. This would simplify the playoffs and eliminate the silly one-game playoff series between the current Wild Card teams.

The expansion teams are possibly the most interesting part of this equation. Where do they go? What cities should get an expansion team? Montreal had a team and lost them, but the city still has the population and infrastructure to support a team. For that reason, I placed an expansion team in Montreal in my little experiment. In my model of a 32-team Major League Baseball, the Montreal Expos make the list.

The other team is more difficult. Austin, Texas is a likely destination, as it is the largest metropolitan area in the nation without a professional sports franchise. However, Texas already has two teams within a couple hours of Austin. San Juan, Puerto Rico is an option, as well. MLB has played some games in San Juan, basically as a means of testing the market waters. Charlotte, North Carolina is an option, as it is one of the fastest growing metro areas in the nation…but it’s also in Braves country. Las Vegas makes the list, but any team in Vegas would require a domed or retractable roof stadium, as it gets awfully hot in Vegas in the summer.

No, I skipped all those cities. Instead, I chose a city that is a fairly large metropolitan area with a professional (NBA) franchise already in place. Putting a team in this particular city would bridge the gap between baseball’s most far-flung franchise and the remainder of the league. The 32nd MLB franchise, in my model, is the Portland Wolves (although the name is open for debate). Placing a team in Portland, Oregon makes travel easier on any team going to Seattle, and it opens up a brand new market for major league baseball.

In 1992, this happened.
Look how 1990s the colors are!

Then, in 1997, it happened again.
Look how 1990s the colors still are!

Now that the expansion teams have been recognized, it’s time for an expansion draft. Then we get to realign the leagues.

For the sake of symmetry I chose four division names based on geography. Each league will have a North, East, Central, and West Division. To keep the geographic breaks as clean as possible, two teams have to switch not only divisions, but leagues. For this experiment, the Baltimore Orioles move into the National League and the Philadelphia Phillies move into the American League. Both leagues have a DH, so it’s not like either roster would require major overhauls to make the move.

American League

The AL North would be made up of the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, and Cleveland Indians.

Making up the AL East in this new model are the Tampa Bay Rays, Philadelphia Phillies, Detroit Tigers, and Chicago White Sox.

The AL Central is now the Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, and Kansas City Royals.

Comprising the AL West in the new model are the Seattle Mariners, Oakland A’s, Los Angeles Angels, and the new Portland Wolves.

National League

The NL North would be comprised of the New York Mets, Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and the returning Montreal Expos.

The NL East would still have the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins, though they are now joined by the Cincinnati Reds and the Baltimore Orioles.

The NL Central would be made up of the Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, and the Colorado Rockies (believe it or not, the Rockies are closer to these teams than they are to their current NL West mates).

The new-look NL West would be comprised of the San Francisco Giants, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the San Diego Padres, and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

4 Day Draft? Why Not More, Roger?

Accord to reports at NFL.com, Commissioner Roger Goodell is considering changing the NFL Draft process once again.

At one time in the not so distant past, the Draft was held on a Saturday and Sunday, with the first three rounds being Saturday, and rounds 4-7 being Sunday.

Then the league tried putting the first round on prime time on a Thursday, then rounds two and three on Friday, then 4-7 on Saturday. It’s worked great. It’s brought more eyes to the process of building teams.

And now Goodell wants to mess with it once again. During an interview with NFL Media, Goodell said the league was considering changing the draft to cover a four day period, instead of three, although the draft would remain at seven rounds. The league has yet to decide if the draft will remain in May or if it will move back to its more traditional April time slot. I can only assume the new model would put Round One on Thursday, Round 2/3 on Friday, Round(s) 3/4/5 on Saturday, and Round(s)5/6/7 on Sunday.

I don’t understand why Goodell is so intent on this continual tinkering with things that already work great. No one is complaining. No one thinks the Draft needs to be longer except Goodell, who maybe stands to make a few more dollars by usurping even more TV time for his product.

But if that’s the case, then why not petition the governments of the world to extend the month of May to 32 days and hold the first round of the draft over the entire month? I mean, the NFL is basically as stronger or stronger than several third-world nations.

Hold the Draft over the entire month of 32-day-May and hold one pick per day, with that pick receiving a dedicated prime time TV slot thanks to the behemoth that is ESPN. The NFL could then hold the following six rounds over the next eight weeks, making approximately four picks per day (accounting for a few compensatory picks). ESPN could block out one hour per night for the NFL Draft, and each team would have 15 minutes to select a player or make a trade. Save the final pick in the draft for the day of the Hall of Fame Game. Allow the team picking “Mr. Irrelevant” to make their pick at half-time of the Hall of Fame Game and immediately induct that player into the Hall.

Come on, Roger…stop trying to fix something that was never broken to begin with.

F1 & Basketball & Baseball & Football & Soccer

Formula 1

And to think, just last year I was doing nothing but complaining about one team dominating the sport, as Sebastian Vettel simply ran away with the title, winning the constructor’s championship by himself. What a difference an offseason makes, though. After sweeping regulations and technical changes, Red Bull Renault is doing all it can just to stay in arm’s reach of the Mercedes AMG Petronas factory team. Nico Rosberg won the first grand prix of the season, and Lewis Hamilton has won the three grand prix since. Rosberg has finished second in each race. So while Hamilton is capturing the accolades and adoration of the media, Rosberg quietly leads the Driver’s Championship race (4 points ahead of Hamilton) and is having a fairly dominant season himself.

Hamilton and Rosberg driving the Mercedes W04 (2013)

Rosberg has 79 points on the year, while Hamilton has 75. Third place, distantly, is Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso, with 41, five points ahead of Force India’s Nico Hulkenberg. Sebastian Vettel currently sits fifth in the points, 46 points adrift of Rosberg’s pace. The Constructor’s Championship is no closer. Mercedes AMG Petronas has so far gathered 154 points. In second place, nearly a full 100 points back, is Red Bull Renault (57).

And we’re not even to the European portion of the calendar, yet. Unless Red Bull and Ferrari make some giant leaps in the coming weeks, Mercedes is probably going to walk away with this season, leaving it to a Driver’s Championship battle between their own drivers. The Constructor’s Championship battle, behind Mercedes, could get very interesting. Currently, only 14 points separate Red Bull, Force India, Ferrari, and McLaren. Just behind them, not even a full race victory out of second place in the points, is Williams. Of the top six constructors, first place, third place, fifth place, and sixth place are all Mercedes powered.

Basketball

The Atlanta Hawks secured the 8th Seed in the Eastern Conference, even though they were well under .500 at season’s end. Their reward for backing into a playoff spot was a series with the #1 Seed Indiana Pacers. Game one of this series was on April 19. If the series goes all seven games, the last game will be played on May 3. That is 15 days to play a seven game series. Baseball also plays a seven game series in the playoff, but they can typically wrap that up in 9 days. I don’t know, maybe it’s because I’m not really a basketball fan, but it seems like overkill with the NBA. The Hawks-Pacers series began on a Saturday, and game two wasn’t be played until Tuesday. Baseball would’ve played three games of a series in that amount of time.

I just think the NBA needs to revisit its playoff structure. The NHL could take a lesson here, too. Teams under .500 don’t really deserve to be in the postseason, do they? The last few years the 9th and 10th place teams in the West would’ve easily been playoff teams in the East. Some talking heads have mentioned eliminating conferences when it comes to playoff. I would just limit the number of slots available to six. In the first round, the #1 and #2 seeds would get a bye, while #3 played #6 and #4 played #5 in Best-of-3 series. The second round would be a Best-of-5 series and the conference championships would be Best-of-7. Obviously the league finals would be Best-of-7.

This system places emphasis on winning to get a top seed, and it places emphasis on winning in the postseason, as teams have less chance to rebound from a loss. The only drawback, and the primary reason why no sports league would ever institute this system, is a loss of TV revenue from having fewer games.

Baseball

The Atlanta Braves are currently 14-7. The pitching staff, particularly the starting rotation, was feared to be the weak spot on the team, as injury after injury piled up in spring training. But through their first 21 games, the Braves starters have posted a combined ERA of 1.50. The next closest starting staff ERA belongs to St. Louis, a 2.20. The Braves have the most complete games pitched among all teams and no team in the league has more quality starts. The Braves have given up only 44 earned runs as a team. The Oakland A’s are the second best staff at earned runs allowed, and the A's have given up 56 earned runs. Only two teams in the majors have better opponents batting averages than Atlanta (opponents are hitting a paltry .215 against the Braves). So for Atlanta, it’s not the pitching…it’s the offense. When the Braves hitters are awake, they can be devastating. Almost every hitter that steps to the plate can be a threat to produce. But when they slump, they slump hard. And in those times the pitching has to pick them up.

The surprise of the year has to be Aaron Harang. Picked up on a flyer after the Cleveland Indians cut him prior to the start of the season, Harang has twice (in four starts) carried a no-hitter past the sixth inning. He is 3-1 on the year with an ERA of 0.85 in just over 31 innings pitched. If Harang can get his pitch count under control then he’d probably be in the running for staff ace at this point. For a guy who was just supposed to be a placeholder to get through the injuries, I’d say Harang has been one of the best moves the Braves have made in a long while.

The other pitching move the braves made was signing Ervin Santana to a one-year deal. This was seen by some as a knee-jerk reaction to the injuries of spring training, and while that might have been the case, Santana is truly playing himself into a big time deal after this season. He currently has an ERA of 0.86 and has pitched some absolute gems so far. The staff has been so solid this year that the other day Alex Wood pitched a gem, lost (because the Braves refuse to score when he pitches) and his ERA went DOWN.

Football

We’re still counting down the days to the Draft. Jadeveon Clowney has basically taken himself off the market, which likely means the Texans have told him that he will be their selection at #1. That will be just the first of several major dominoes to fall at the Draft. This is a deep class, with loads of talent throughout.

For the hometown Falcons, I would love to see one of these monster defensive ends come to town, but I also know that Matt Ryan needs protection on the O-Line. It’s a tough situation to be in. Hypothetically, what if the sixth pick rolls around and there on the board are Buffalo DE Khalil Mack and Auburn OT Greg Robinson. Who do you take? Mack brings the instant pass rush threat that Atlanta needs. Robinson brings the ability to protect a stud QB and open up passing lanes. Two spots of sore need for Atlanta, and only one pick. It’s a head-scratcher for Thomas Dimitroff, I’m sure. The word on the street is the Falcons have been talking about trading up to ensure they land Mack or Robinson. Staying at #6 would probably net them Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews or, if they felt inclined to reach a bit, Michigan OT Taylor Lewan.

As for the Dawgs going in this draft, all eyes have been on QB Aaron Murray. During his trip to Jon Gruden’s QB Camp, Murray was mightily impressive. Gruden came out of the experience touting Murray as the “diamond in the rough” of this QB class and the “steal of this draft for somebody.” Almost every mock I’ve seen has the Bengals taking Murray in Round 3. Cincinnati has never been afraid to draft Georgia players. Also coming into the league from Georgia is TE Arthur Lynch. The Falcons need a TE, but may not be too concerned about it this year.

Soccer

The City of Atlanta is getting an MLS team. Of course, this has stirred up some debate among Georgians as to the validity of soccer in the American marketplace, especially in the southeastern US, where high school and collegiate football are the second and third largest religions behind Christianity. I cannot stand soccer. But I have reasons for not liking it which I believe are quite valid.

For instance: offside. In American football, “offside” or “offsides” is an easy call. There is an established line of scrimmage and if a defensive player is on the offensive side of the line of scrimmage at the time of the snap, the play is offsides. The following image is an example of an NFL play that is "onsides."

The following image is an example of an NFL play that is "offsides."

In hockey, offside is again an easy call. A player cannot cross the blue line marking the boundary of the attacking zone before the puck does, otherwise he is offsides (see below).

In soccer, though, a player is defined as offsides if there are fewer than two opposing players between the designated player and the goal. There is no hard line, nothing denoting where offsides actually occurs, other than the referees prerogative and the placement of the last defenders.

Imagine in the NFL is Calvin Johnson beat Richard Sherman on a route, but was called offside simply because he beat the corner on the route. That’s a bit like offsides in soccer. (For the record, yes, I know I’m butchering the rules. I have a hard time getting excited about a game with a rule that silly, especially when it is the same game that considers 3-2 to be a high-scoring affair.

A Wall of Separation Between Church and College Football (A Way Too Early Thought)

The Freedom From Religion Foundation has filed a complaint against Clemson University and head football coach Dabo Swinney and his staff, claiming "unconstitutional behavior." According to the complaint, Swinney organized a means for players and coaches to go to "church days." He also scheduled team devotionals and invited former Clemson player James Trapp to be team chaplain and gave him access to the entire team for Bible studies.

According to the Wisconsin foundation, all of these items are horrifying violations of the Constitution. According to the university, who has not allowed coach Swinney to comment, each item is purely voluntary. No player is forced into taking part in any religious activities. There is obviously more to come from this story, as we're just in the early stages of the complaint.

Now, I'm a pretty religious guy...but these Freedom From Religion people have some ideals that strike me odd. According to their website, they are based in "Freethought Hall." They call themselves "Free Thinkers." I guess they believe anyone who believes in God or any god is a barely-functional simpleton. Only by shirking the shackles of the Lord can someone truly freely think.

Their website has the tag line "Protecting the Constitutional principle of separation of church and state." That's fantastic, except that "separation of church and state" is not a "Constitutional principle." The Constitution's First Amendment states that "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances." I don't see separating church and state in there.

Actually, the phrase "a wall of separation between church and state" does not appear in any founding documents. Not the Declaration of Independence. Not the Constitution. No, it appears in a series of letters between Thomas Jefferson and the Danbury Baptist Association (Danbury, CT). The letter was sent in October 1801. Going back to the dark days of religion and government in England, the Baptists had long supported separating Church and State. They wanted the separation of church and state to keep the state out of the church as much as to keep the church out of the state. (Does that make sense?)

For years ever since people have tried to make the "separation of church and state" a Constitutional statement. Even as religious as I am, I know it's a bad idea for any religion to run the government. Just look at any theocracy to see how damaging that can be. That said, I just cannot go along with the atheistic idea that any and all government officials must check their religion at the door and never mention or think or rely on their faith during the execution of their duties. If Clemson's counter-claim is correct, and the religious activities were voluntary, then I would say I support Swinney in this. If he forced anyone to attend these events, then my opinion would be different.

The fact that the Freedom From Religion Foundation got involved just shows that they have nothing better to do but sit around and try to find some religious activity to attack. Just check out their website. You'll find out very quickly that they're not really the Freedom From Religion Foundation. They really should be the "Freedom From Christianity" Foundation.

Mocking the 2014 NFL Draft

The 79th version of the NFL Draft comes to us May 8-10, from Radio City Music Hall in New York City. Since 2010, the First Round of the Draft has been held on Thursday night, with rounds 2 and 3 on Friday and rounds 4 through 7 on Saturday. The prime time move for the first round really amplified the importance of the Draft.

If you’ve been a reader of my blog for any extended period of time, you’ll already know that I absolutely love the NFL Draft. It’s like a springtime version of Christmas to me. I’ll watch every minute of coverage that I can. I’ll read as many mock drafts as I can find. I know they don’t mean anything, but they’re often closer to the truth than we give them credit for.

And I like to make my own predictions for how I think things will go down once the Draft begins. As such, here’s my prediction for the top ten picks. I’m not mocking any trades in this round of predictions. If I were, I can name at least two teams I think are willing to move up after coveted players.

1. Houston Texans (2-14):

The Texans really need a quarterback. Matt Schaub is gone and there’s not really anyone else on the roster than can serve as a franchise guy. This draft is deep with QBs, but no single quarterback has distanced himself from the pack. Unlike a couple of years ago, when Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III were, far and away, the top QBs in the Draft, this year’s class has several QBs that are now almost interchangeable on any team’s depth chart. The Texans have also, apparently, fallen in love with South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney. There really is such an embarrassment of riches in this class that it would be hard for Houston to make a bad pick.

With the first overall selection in the 2014 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans select…Jadeveon Clowney, defensive end, South Carolina.

Alternate Pick: Houston could trade out of this spot and gain more picks later. The obvious choice to trade up is probably Atlanta. Rumor is the Falcons could move up by swapping firsts this year, a 2014 3rd Round pick, a 2015 1st Round pick, and maybe a lower pick this year or next. If the Texans decide to pick a QB first overall, the likely target is Central Florida QB Blake Bortles.

Jadeveon Clowney Delivers a Monster Hit

2. St. Louis Rams (7-9) (*pick from Washington, 3-13)

St. Louis has a lot of power in the Draft this year, seeing as they control a lot of picks. They could move around the Draft almost anywhere they wanted to go. However, they have several areas of need themselves, as evidenced by a 7-9 record. Sam Bradford needs more weapons if he is to ever be an effective quarterback. The defense could always use more strength on the edge. Depending on what Houston does, the Rams could trade out of the second slot. If Houston takes a QB, Atlanta and others may start quickly calling Rams GM Les Snead in an effort to trade up.

With the second overall selection in the 2014 NFL Draft, the St. Louis Rams select…Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson.

Alternate Pick: Barring the Rams trading out of this spot, one of the big Des is the likely pick. Clowney would be great for St. Louis, but the other option in mind here is Khalil Mack, DE, Buffalo. Some mocks have Mack as the actual pick, but I think St. Louis would rather upgrade Sam Bradford’s complement of WRs. 

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)

The options available to Jacksonville at this point are vast. Like Houston or St. Louis, trading down is a big possibility, as the QB Jacksonville reportedly likes will likely be a second rounder anyway. You can always take the best available player in this slot (which is what I’m mocking). Jacksonville needs so much help in so many places…they’re basically Cleveland South. Take the best player on the board and pray your QB is there in round 2, Jags.

With the third overall selection in the 2014 NFL Draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars select…Khalil Mack, DE, Buffalo.

Alternate Pick: A QB has to come off the board at some point. Jacksonville needs to sell tickets. Why not kill two birds with one stone and draft Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel?

4. Cleveland Browns (4-12)

Oh, Cleveland…whatever did you do to deserve such horrid sports history? Here you are picking in the top ten again, as you have every years since 2008. I don’t think the Jets or Falcons will bail you out on a trade this year, unfortunately. The best thing you can do is try to draft a true franchise Quarterback. Of course, you’ve done that very thing twice in the last six years and it’s not really paid off yet. Still, give it another try, Browns. At some point you have to stop being a factory of sadness.

With the fourth overall selection in the 2014 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns select…Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida.

Alternate Pick: Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State. Apparently Cleveland is not sold on Manziel or Bridgewater.

5. Oakland Raiders (4-12)

If Al Davis were still with us I would say that Kent State RB Dri Archer would go here, as he ran the fastest 40-yard dash at the combine and Al Davis loved him some speed. He’s fast. But that’s not happening. No offense to Mr. Archer. Oakland landed former Houston QB Matt Schaub, but that doesn’t mean the Raiders aren’t eyeing a QB at this spot. There are some big name QBs left on the board. The Raiders may just make the move that others are reluctant to make…

With the fifth overall selection in the 2014 NFL Draft, the Oakland Raiders select…Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M.

Alternate Pick: Keeping with the QB theme, Oakland may turn to Louisville signal-caller Teddy Bridgewater.

Johnny Football

6. Atlanta Falcons (4-12)

If ever there was a team with aspirations of moving up in the draft, this is it. Atlanta really loves Jadeveon Clowney, and they’re pretty enamored with Khalil Mack. Both are good choices, but neither looks to be available at #6. That does not mean the world is ending for the Falcons. In fact, it very well may be the best thing that could happen to the birds. Atlanta’s offensive line was terrible at times in 2013. If they can make that line better in one draft pick, why not do it. Word on the street is that they guy they’re getting might be the best all-around athlete in this draft, considering his position and size.

With the sixth overall selection in the 2014 NFL Draft, the Atlanta Falcons select…Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn. (NOTE: Mel Kiper now has the Falcons taking Michigan OT Taylor Lewan. I happen to think Lewan has too many off-field issues for Atlanta to take.)

Alternate Pick: Seeing as the big DEs are gone, the alternate pick here becomes Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)

The Bucs traded away one of their better receivers in the offseason. So it’s easy to slot a WR into this pick. The best receiver in the draft, Sammy Watkins, is already off the board in this mock, so Tampa Bay takes the next best thing.

With the seventh overall selection in the 2014 NFL Draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select…Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M.

Alternate Pick: I wouldn’t be shocked if Tamps took a QB at this point, but there are good QBs to be had in almost every round of this draft. Considering what is still on the board in this mock, the QB most likely taken here is probably Teddy Bridgewater, out of Louisville. As the draft wears on, don’t be surprised is someone in the first round stretches for Easter Illinois QB Jimmy Garoppolo.

8. Minnesota Vikings (5-10-1)

If the draft does in fact shake out the way I’m predicting, then from the moment the commissioner calls out Mike Evans’s name on Tampa Bay’s pick, Minnesota should already be heading to the podium. The Vikes, more than almost anyone else, are dying for a franchise QB. In my mock, they can stand pat and not have to trade up and still land the guy who, just a few months ago, was being projected as the first overall pick.

With the eighth overall selection in the 2014 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select…Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville.

Alternate Pick: If this draft goes as I’m predicting, there isn’t another alternate here. Basically, for Minnesota, the first round pick has to be a QB.

9. Buffalo Bills (6-10)

Buffalo would love for one of the big DEs to fall to them, but that doesn’t look likely. Barring that, they’d love one of the big OTs to fall to them. Also unlikely. So they are stuck looking for the best player available to fit their needs. They could go after the next best OT or they could settle for the draft’s best TE. They needs weapons for QB EJ Manuel, so the TE option looks most likely.

With the ninth overall selection in the 2014 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select…Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina.

Alternate Pick: Should Buffalo decide to take the next best OT, then the name called will be Michigan’s Taylor Lewan.

10. Detroit Lions (7-9)

What in the world is Detroit going to do? Some mocks have them trading up to #2 to land Sammy Watkins (imagine Watkins opposite Calvin Johnson with Matthew Stafford slinging it to them…scary, right?). Now, I’ve seen just about every possible combination of mocks out there, but there is one move I’ve not seen anyone mocking. So I’ll go out on a limb and do it. Detroit needs some help in the defensive secondary. They could take a cornerback here and be happy, as Bradley Roby (Ohio State) and Justin Gilbert (Oklahoma State) fit the bill. But what about the Safety position?

With the tenth overall selection in the 2014 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select…Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Safety, Alabama. (NOTE: I honestly have not seen anyone mocking this until the time of this writing, and I've now learned that ESPN's Mel Kiper is making this pick in his latest mock draft.)

Alternate Pick: Detroit supposedly is okay at cornerback. A monster like Clinton-Dix on that defense means good things. If they did go CB, I could only see them taking Okie State’s Justin Gilbert.

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix Adds Insult to Injury Against Notre Dame

How I Met Your Spoiler Alert

Yes, this is a blog post about the TV show How I Met Your Mother. Yes, it contains spoilers of the series finale. If you haven’t seen it, then stop reading. I don’t want anyone mad at me for something I cannot control.

How I Met Your Mother began in 2005 under the premise of an older man telling his teenage children the story of how he met their mother. Anyone who watched the show for any amount of time realized that entire seasons went by with nary a mention of the Mother. This was never a story about meeting her. This was a story of a lonely guy, Ted Mosby, living in New York and trying his best to find his way in life.

While the show was ultimately extended beyond its reasonable lifespan thanks to a network that had found a cash-cow, the final season seemed to redeem some of the goodwill fans had been losing. The “concept” season, in which the entirety of the ninth season was compressed into the weekend leading up the wedding of Barney and Robin, revived the storytelling style of the first years of this show.

Sprinkled throughout the season were Lost-style flash-forwards and flashbacks, further propping up the story. The series finale featured an even more compressed timeline, covering 2013 to 2030 in the span of an hour. Lily and Marshall have their children. Marshall becomes a judge, then announces his intent to run for the State Supreme Court. Barney and Robin realize, three years into their marriage, that things aren't working out. They divorce. Robin devotes herself fully to her career, distancing herself from the group in the process. Barney goes back to his womanizing ways until he finally gets a girl pregnant. While he had mocked the idea of love (revealing his heartache from the failure with Robin), Barney professes his undying love to his daughter the first time he holds her.

Of all these characters, Robin’s story seems to mirror her introduction to the series. She started out as a career-oriented woman who rarely went for relationships. As her friendship grew with the gang, she became more personable. The hurt from the failure with Barney drove her back into focusing on her work, and lingering feeling (for Barney or Ted?) drove her away from the group.

The constant through it all was Ted Mosby. His desire to find “the one” encapsulates the desire of most people. He was an everyman, but he was such an everyman that he often became a supporting character in his own story. His search for a relationship that would last carried him through a few failed relationships and many straightforward refusals. But he kept going, which is more than can be said for some people.

At Barney and Robin’s wedding, Ted finally sees the Mother for the first time. He later runs into her at a train station, and they begin to discuss the strings connecting them throughout the series (the roommate, the yellow umbrella, etc.). They begin dating and they actually end up having two children before they even get married. The marriage finally happens in 2020. By 2024, the Mother will have fallen ill and died, all of which had received subtle hints this season.

Ted is telling this story to his kids in 2030. His kids, though, realize the truth behind the story. It wasn't about their mother. This story was about Robin. It was always about Robin. While the love Ted and the Mother had was real, and deep, it was also over, thanks to her passing. Like any other person, Ted is basically voicing 25 years’ worth of regrets while masking it as a sweet, nostalgic story. The kids give their blessing to Ted pursuing Robin once more (now as a 50+ year old man). The series ends much as it began, with Ted standing outside Robin’s apartment, holding up a blue French horn.

And it was that ending that basically ripped apart the fan base of How I Met Your Mother. We've seen for nine seasons that Robin and Ted only kind of work. We were forced into some deep emotional investment with Barney and Robin, only to have it all ripped away in the last episode. We were committed to the idea of Ted and Tracy (the Mother) finally getting together and making it work. And it was all taken away from us.

But that’s life. In reality, not all stories flow with the same rhythm all the time. Some parts are faster and some parts are slower. Sometimes entire blocks of detail are crammed into a short span of time while other times the storyteller wastes a half-hour of your life on insignificant details. The fans, apparently, wanted perfection from a show that was anything but perfect.

The comments I've read call out the show for creating the investment in the Mother, only to rip her away from us so quickly. But that happens in life all the time. As a kid I remember having friends in school, and suddenly they were gone because their parents moved away. There’s nothing that I or anyone else could do. The decision was made by adults, and we were just kids. I remember being told that loved ones had months to live, and they were gone within weeks. That’s what life does. Life throws events at us; hardships, trials, tribulations, elation, celebrations, and rapturous moments of enlightenment. Each time it throws an event at us we have to keep going. When I graduated college I didn't celebrate for days on end…I pretty much intensified the already on-going job search the next day. Life doesn't slow down. And the best we can do is deal with the hands we’re dealt.

For the fans desiring a perfect ending for all characters…when is the last time that happened? Not just in TV, but in real life. Life is never perfect. Far more often than not we mess up. First impressions are quite often bad. The words never come out as they do in the movies. The first kiss is never as perfect as it is on TV. Life, in all its glory, is a series of missteps and imperfections. We just have to handle it as best we can and see where it takes us.

It would take the better part of nine seasons for Ted to actually meet the Mother. Like any other long-running shows, the series had its ups and its downs. Some seasons were flat-out better than others. Some episodes shown like diamonds in the rough. Some story lines slogged through messy character chemistry.

In short, it was a story about life.