We’re roughly two weeks out from the start of the Formula 1 calendar, and with every day that we draw closer to the lights going out in Melbourne, we learn more and more about what this year will hold for the premier racing series on the planet.
Testing
Formula 1 is conducting preseason testing in Jerez and Bahrain, and one thing is evident: Mercedes is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the class. The Mercedes factory team (Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg) were pace-setters throughout testing, with other teams, typically with Mercedes power-plants occasionally jostling their way to the front.
Conversely, the Renault powered cars are struggling for pace, which is fascinating considering we’re still under the cloud of four years of Vettel dominance.
Double Points for Abu Dhabi
Because of the dominance of the Red Bull Renault racing team, and more specifically, Sebastian Vettel, the World Driver’s Championship last year was a bit of a snooze. Vettel reeled off nine consecutive wins to finish out 2013, finishing the year with thirteen victories. He wrapped up the Driver’s Title in India, while three more races remained on the calendar. Second place points finisher Fernando Alonso finished the year 155 points off Vettel’s pace.
So how did the FIA decide to deal with such dominance? They introduced the gimmick to end all gimmicks. In a sport that has slowly been inundated by gimmick changes (KERS, DRS, etc.), this new rule really takes the cake. The final race of the season, at Yas Marina Circuit, will count for double points. The winner of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will get 50 points instead of 25. The FIA claims this rule will “maximize focus on the championship.” In reality, it’s making the sport a laughing stock.
Imagine if the NFL decided that touchdowns scored in the last regular season game (Week 17) suddenly counted for 12 points instead of 6, with extra points being worth 2 and field goals now being worth 6 points, but it was just for that game. The Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks final game of 2013 was a home win over St. Louis, 27-9. If the FIA’s new rule had applied to the NFL, that game would’ve been 54-18, but the same number of touchdowns and field goals would’ve been scored. It’s an artificial inflation in effort to make the racing more exciting.
C’mon, Formula 1, let the boys race. Don’t be NASCAR.
Speaking of NASCAR…
November 2, 2014: A Day That Will Live in Confusion
Just two years ago Formula 1 returned to the United States with the US Grand Prix held at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, TX. The track is an absolute beauty; one of the best things to come from Hermann Tilke since Istanbul Park. The grand prix is typically held late in the year to avoid the harsh Texas summer and to set up a twin-bill with the Brazilian Grand Prix at Interlagos.
This year, F1 has scheduled the US Grand Prix for November 2. That’s all well and good, until you realize that NASCAR is holding the Sprint Cup Texas 500, at Texas Motor Speedway, on the same day. Straight line, the two circuits are separated by 200 miles. But they couldn’t be farther apart when it comes to actual racing. The Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile cookie-cutter oval track with very little character. It is the standard NASCAR template for the American racing fan who seems incapable of watching a car turn right. Don’t get me wrong, I still like NASCAR. The racing so far this year has been pretty good across all levels, but it is a simpler animal than Formula 1.
F1 supremo Bernie Ecclestone (Fifth Beatle) is reportedly unconcerned by the calendar kerfuffle. Texas Motor Speedway president Eddie Gossage has slammed F1’s plan, saying that nobody wins when the two high-profile motor sport series clash like this. Gossage claims that scheduling the US Grand Prix on the same day as the NASCAR event at his track is basically a “shot fired by Formula 1 at NASCAR.”
Gossage is quoted as saying “I can't say I was surprised because Bernie Ecclestone does a lot of foolish things. The thing he unfortunately doesn't recognise is there is an 800-pound gorilla when it comes to major American motor sports. The 800-pound gorilla is NASCAR. It's just not smart. There are 52 weeks in the year. But that was the only weekend that Formula One could make it work in Austin, Texas? Give me a break. It wouldn't have happened if they (the COTA officials) had the strength and the fortitude to stand up and say no.”
Those are the words of a man who does not comprehend how a global sport series like Formula 1 operates, especially under the leadership of Fifth Beatle. To say Bernie has done a lot of foolish things might be the understatement of the year. From his silly idea of awarding medals like the Olympics, to putting shortcuts on the circuits, to putting sprinklers that would imitate rain, Bernie has truly run the gamut of foolishness.
In what amounts to a rebuttal, Ecclestone said “I've also spoken to the people that run the race at COTA and their position is that they believe the NASCAR crowd is a different crowd to Formula One, different people, different customers. At the end of the day they run a domestic series in America - we run a World Championship.” Bear in mind that the Grand Prix will only take about two hours to run, with a half-hour pre-race show. The NASCAR event will have upwards of two-hours of pre-race coverage, and will then take about 4 hours, maybe even 5, to actually run.
Predictions
Will the new circuit in Sochi prove exciting? No. The early mock-ups I’ve seen and the computer-game like rFactor run I saw show a track with no personality and far too many 90-degree turns. This is a case of F1 trying to piggy-back the Winter Olympics, which weren’t the best press for Russia.
Will Sebastian Vettel’s dominance continue? No. The Renault-powered cars are struggling too much in this early going. I think Vettel may be a bit of a factor at the end, but his title run comes to an end this year.
If Vettel’s not the driver’s champion, then who is? When I talked about this with Robert the other day, we kicked around several names, but there was one I kept coming back to. He’s been on the rise the last two season, is a proven race winner, and is partnered with a previous Driver’s Champion, so he has a brain to pick when trying to figure things out. His car looks to be one of the best on the grid this year, which can’t hurt. For Driver’s Champion of 2014, I’m picking Nico Rosberg.
Okay, so we know who you think will win the Driver’s Title, but what about the Constructor’s Championship? It’s gotta be Red Bull, right? Wrong. Again, the Renault powered cars are struggling to keep up through testing. I can’t imagine all of those problems get sorted out in the two weeks remaining before Melbourne. I think Mercedes will double up this year. I’ve pegged Rosberg for the Driver’s Title, and I think Lewis Hamilton will return to form and pick up two or three wins. Silver Arrows wrap up the Constructor’s Title.
Who will be the first driver to be replaced? This, I think, is between McLaren’s Kevin Magnussen and Toro Rosso’s Daniil Kvyat. Truthfully, I’m not sure any driver is replaced, assuming there are no injuries this year. If anyone does get replaced, the talent pool for replacements is fairly deep.
Will Fifth Beatle hang it up after this year and let someone else take the reins? Emphatically no. The only way anyone else will oversee Formula 1 is when they pry it from Bernie’s cold, dead fingers.
Alright, so tell us your pick for the top five finishers in the Driver’s Championship standings. Obviously I’ve got Rosberg at the top, and I think Hamilton will be highly placed, as well. When it’s all said and done, I think the driver’s top five will look like this: Rosberg, Raikkonen, Hamilton, Vettel, Hulkenberg.
Wow, Nico Hulkenberg in the top five of the Driver’s Championship standings? Yes. I’ve always thought highly of Hulkenberg, and he’s now got a pretty good car under him. I’m looking for a strong year from Force India, as you’ll see in a bit.
What’s that supposed to mean? Just keep asking the questions.
Fine, whatever…so that’s your Driver’s Top Five, how do you think the Constructor’s Title plays out? Give us your top five there. As I said earlier, I think the Mercedes factory teams pulls the double this year. But I also think Force India will have a strong year and McLaren will bounce back from the god-awful 2013 campaign. I see the Constructor’s Standings playing out like this: Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, Force India, Red Bull Renault.
